AFL 2025 Round 1 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The AFL season is officially underway – sort of. The Opening Round was already set to ease us back into things with just four games, but Cyclone Alfred’s impending landfall saw two of those games postponed. The result was a two-game opening round, meaning the vast majority of teams will kick their seasons off this weekend. It begins with the traditional Thursday night clash between the Blues and the young Tigers, while other highlights include a Grand Final rematch between the Swans and Blues, and an intriguing clash between the Cats and the Dockers. Check out our previews for all nine games below.

This matchup was for a long time the domain of the Tigers, who won an incredible 11 in a row against their old rivals between 2015 and 2020. But their fall has coincided with the rise of the Blues and that has been reflected in the results of recent matchups between the two, with the Tigers losing the last couple. That trend is likely to continue this year.

While the Blues enter the year as one of the many teams viewed as capable of competing for the flags, the Tigers are the almost unbackable Wooden Spoon favourite. They are in the midst of a major rebuild, and while there is plenty of reason for optimism courtesy of the raft of high picks they secured at last year’s draft, 2025 will be a year for development. There will be plenty to look out for from their perspective, not least the debuts of three of those rookies including number one pick Sam Lalor, but the Blues’ talent and experience should see them win this one relatively comfortably.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Tigers +49.5	$1.90
	Under 178.5 total match points	$1.88
	Blues 1-39	$2.80

Predicted Squads

Richmond Tigers: B: N. Broad, B. Miller, N. Vlastuin HB: T. Brown, J. Blight, J. Short C: K. McIntosh, J. Hopper, S. Banks HF: T. Sonsie, J. Bauer, S. Lalor F: S. Campbell, T. Lynch, R. Mansell FOLL: T. Nankervis, T. Taranto, J. Ross I/C: T. Dow, L. Trainor, H. Armstrong, J. Trezise, M. Rioli EMG: L. Fawcett, S. Ryan, K. McAuliffe

Carlton Blues: B: A. Saad, J. Weitering, J. Boyd HB: N. Haynes, M. McGovern, O. Hollands C: B. Acres, P. Cripps, S. Docherty HF: G. Hewett, H. McKay, M. Cottrell F: Z. Williams, B. Kemp, J. Motlop FOLL: T. De Koning, A. Cerra, S. Walsh I/C: L. Cowan, J. Silvagni, C. Lord, L. Camporeale, L. Fogarty EMG: J. Binns, H. Lemmey, M. Carroll

The Hawks came into this season with high expectations on their young shoulders after a brilliant 2024 – excluding its first few weeks – and they dealt with it with the ease we should by now expect from this group in their first game of the year. Coming up against a Swans’ team which was the dominant side for most of last year, and in Sydney no less, the visitors ran away with it late to provide some early validation for those expecting big things from them this year. They’ll be expecting to continue on their merry way this weekend against a much inferior opponent.

The Bombers are not the worst team in the league by any means, but they are substantially less talented than Sydney and, given the number of quality teams in the league, it will be a surprise if they play finals this season. A win against one of the Premiership favourites would be a great way to kick things off, but it’s hard to see them getting particularly close to the Hawks.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Hawks to win	$1.30
	Hawks 25+	$2.00
	Hawks -21.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: B: T. Barrass, B. Hardwick, J. Scrimshaw HB: J. Weddle, J. Impey, J. Battle C: J. Sicily - C, J. Newcombe, M. D’Ambrosio HF: C. Nash, H. Morrison, N. Watson F: J. Ginnivan, M. Chol, W. Day FOLL: L. Meek, J. Worpel, D. Moore I/C: F. Maginness, C. Macdonald, S. Frost, C. Mackenzie, K. Amon EMG: J. Gunston, J. Ward, W. McCabe

Essendon Bombers: B: A. McGrath, B. McKay, J. Ridley HB: M. Redman, Z. Reid, D. Shiel C: X. Duursma, Z. Merrett, N. Martin HF: J. Gresham, H. Jones, A. Perkins F: I. Kako, N. Caddy, K. Langford FOLL: S. Draper, J. Caldwell, S. Durham I/C: N. Bryan, A. Roberts, E. Tsatas, B. Hobbs, J. Prior EMG: S. El-Hawli, W. Setterfield, T. Edwards

Saturday will play host to a number of high-quality games, and this is one of them. Both the Cats and the Dockers enter this season with really high hopes, and justifiably so. The Cats, of course, finished top four last year – as they do most years – and will be hoping to do the same this year, somehow managing to rebuild an aging list on the fly yet again.

The Dockers, meanwhile, missed the finals last year but really shouldn’t have, and if they can avoid the handful of late-game meltdowns they had last season they will be in the top eight come season’s end. Defensively they have long been excellent and they are good enough going the other way this year to be a serious threat both in this game, and this season moreover. The Cats are never easy to beat down the highway and the Dockers have not always travelled that well, but the visitors should be able to keep this close and potentially even snare an upset win in their first game of the year.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers to win	$2.65
	Dockers 1-39	$3.20
	Dockers +13.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: B: Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, L. Humphries HB: J. Bowes, C. O’Sullivan, T. Stewart C: G. Miers, B. Smith, O. Dempsey HF: P. Dangerfield, J. Cameron, B. Close F: T. Stengle, S. Neale, O. Henry FOLL: S. De Koning, M. Knevitt, M. Holmes, I/C: T. Atkins, S. Mannagh, M. Duncan, M. Blicavs, J. Clark EMG: T. Clohesy, J. Martin, R. Stanley

Fremantle Dockers: B: L. Ryan, A. Pearce, B. Walker HB: J. Clark, B. Cox, H. Chapman C: J. Sharp, J. O’Meara, N. O’Driscoll HF: S. Bolton, J. Treacy, M. Frederick F: S. Switkowski, J. Amiss, S. Sturt FOLL: L. Jackson, C. Serong, A. Brayshaw I/C: M. Johnson, M. Reid, J. Draper, L. Reidy, C. Wagner EMG: N. Erasmus, N. Fyfe, K. Worner

• Adelaide hasn’t been a particularly happy hunting ground of late for the Saints, who have lost their past four games there by an average of 25. 5 points.
• Few teams have had much success in Geelong for well over a decade, but the Dockers have bucked that trend by winning the last two times they have visited the Cattery.
• Both the Magpies and Power have been towards the top of the ladder over the past few years, but between 2022 and 2024, Collingwood have won all three games against Port Adelaide at the MCG by an average of nearly 40 points.

Multi of the Week

Last year’s Grand Final was not exactly one to remember, but hopefully this time around the Swans give us a bit more of a contest. They certainly shouldn’t have any shortage of motivation; 2024 saw them once again capitulate in a Grand Final, and with hopes of going one better this year they will be very keen to avoid going 0-2 to start the year after a disappointing loss to Hawthorn last weekend.

The Lions, meanwhile, have had a turbulent couple of weeks after they were supposed to start their season last weekend, only to have the game postponed due to Cyclone Alfred. They will have had an interrupted few days in the lead-up to this game, and it’s hard to predict how the reigning Premiers will come out in their first game since winning a flag. If both teams are at their best this will be a brilliant game, but the Swans, with a point to prove, can reverse the result of last year’s Grand Final in a thriller.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$2.05
	Swans 1-39	$2.65
	Swans +3.5	$1.89

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: N. Blakey, L. Melican, S. Wicks HB: M. Roberts, D. Rampe, B. Paton C: J. Lloyd, I. Heeney - C, J. McInerney HF: B. Campbell, T. McCartin, T. Papley F: W. Hayward, J. Amartey, J. Jordon FOLL: B. Grundy, Ch. Warner, J. Rowbottom I/C: O. Florent, T. Adams, A. Sheldrick, Co. Warner, T. Hanily EMG: P. Ladhams, C. Mitchell, A. Francis

Brisbane Lions: B: B. Starcevich, H. Andrews, R. Lester HB: D. Zorko, J. Payne, D. Wilmot C: J. Fletcher, W. Ashcroft, H. McCluggage HF: C. Rayner, L. Morris, J. Berry F: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, Z. Bailey FOLL: O. McInerney, L. Neale, J. Dunkley I/C: K. Lohmann, C. Ah Chee, N. Answerth, S. Day, L. Ashcroft EMG: J. Tunstill, C. McKenna, T. Gallop

Although the Bulldogs were knocked out in the first week of last year’s finals, they had a really impressive year and for a time were one of the Premiership favourites, despite the fact that they were always going to finish outside the top four. They still enter this season at better than even money to even make the eight – testament to the depth of the league – but as we all know, this is a team which is very dangerous when on song.

The Kangaroos, meanwhile, have not won more than four games since last decade, but this could very well be the year. They have ever so slowly compiled a decent brigade of young talent, and complemented by a couple of mature pick-ups in the off-season they should be expecting to take a step forward this season. This is the kind of game that has long made Bulldogs fans nervous courtesy of their team’s penchant for inconsistency, but while the Roos should be able to make a game of this for two or three quarters, the Dogs should be too strong.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$1.35
	Bulldogs -20.5	$1.91
	Over 176.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: B: T. Duryea, R. Lobb, L. Bramble HB: J. Freijah, B. Khamis, B. Dale C: R. Sanders, T. Liberatore, B. Williams HF: L. Vandermeer, A. Naughton, L. McNeil F: R. Garcia, S. Darcy, R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Kennedy, E. Richards I/C: J. O’Donnell, J. Harmes, H. Gallagher, S. Davidson, L. Cleary EMG: A. Jones, C. Poulter, J. Croft

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: J. Archer, G. Logue, A. Corr HB: C. Daniel, C. Comben, D. Tucker C: C. McKercher, J. Simpkin, B. Scott HF: L. Parker, N. Larkey, R. Hansen Jr F: P. Curtis, J. Darling, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, L. Davies-Uniacke, H. Sheezel I/C: W. Phillips, Z. Fisher, J. Konstanty, T. Powell, F. O’Sullivan EMG: L. McDonald, Z. Duursma, E. Ford

What a grim start to the year that was for the Magpies. Their Opening Round clash against the Giants in Sydney was never going to be easy, but a 52-point thrashing was not in the crystal balls of many punters. Poor goalkicking meant that margin was probably more significant than what it should have been, but the Pies were still thoroughly outplayed and will need a better showing to win this weekend.

The Power are not as good a side as Geelong, but they do have plenty going for them and are one of a plethora of teams that could just as easily finish top four as they could miss the eight entirely. This will be an early season litmus test for them against another team in a similar position, with a new-look structure in Ken Hinkley’s final year as coach which will see Jack Lukosius slot in up forward and Jeremy Finlayson presumably play down back, as he did in the pre-season. They’re capable of winning this one if on, particularly if Collingwood plays like they did last week, but at the MCG the home side should be able to get the points.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$1.58
	Magpies -8.5	$1.91
	Magpies/Magpies half-time/full-time	$1.96

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, D. Moore - C, R. McInnes HB: I. Quaynor, J. Howe, J. Daicos C: H. Perryman, S. Pendlebury, P. Lipinski HF: Bo. Hill, B. Mihocek, B. McCreery F: D. McStay, W. Hoskin-Elliott, L. Schultz FOLL: D. Cameron, J. Crisp, N. Daicos I/C: N. Long, S. Sidebottom, J. Elliott, T. Membrey, E. Allan EMG: L. Sullivan, W. Parker, B. Frampton

Port Adelaide Power: B: M. Bergman, J. Finlayson, L. Jones HB: L. Evans, A. Aliir, K. Farrell C: T. Boak, W. Drew, J. Burgoyne HF: J. Horne-Francis, J. Lukosius, D. Byrne-Jones F: W. Rioli, M. Georgiades, J. Richards FOLL: J. Sweet, O. Wines, C. Rozee I/C: O. Lord, S. Powell-Pepper, J. Mead, J. Berry, J. Sinn EMG: R. Burton, W. Lorenz, I. Soldo

Neither the Crows nor the Saints had the 2024 seasons that they would have liked, the former missing the finals after most expected them to improve significantly, and the Saints dropping to 12th after finishing 6th the year prior. For Adelaide, 2025 offers a chance to demonstrate that last year was just a blip on the radar, and they are fully capable of doing exactly that.

The Saints, meanwhile, might need to temper their expectations a little more. As has so often been the case with this club, their list is one without a particularly high ceiling, and while they should be competitive enough it’s hard to imagine them significantly outperforming the relatively subdued expectations surrounding them this year. After the Crows lost their first five games last year, this is a good opportunity for the Crows to get off to a strong start to the season at home.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Crows to win	$1.37
	Crows 25+	$2.25
	Crows -18.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: B: J. Worrell, M. Keane, M. Michalanney HB: R. Laird, N. Murray, W. Milera C: L. Sholl, J. Soligo, I. Cumming HF: A. Neal-Bullen, D. Fogarty, B. Keays F: R. Thilthorpe, T. Walker, J. Rachele FOLL: R. O’Brien, J. Dawson, I. Rankine I/C: M. Crouch, J. Peatling, S. Draper, M. Hinge, D. Curtin EMG: S. Berry, J. Butts, L. Pedlar

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Webster, I. Keeler, A. Hastie HB: J. Sinclair, C. Wilkie, N. Wanganeen-Milera C: D. Wilson, J. Steele, B. Hill HF: H. Boxshall, A. Caminiti, H. Garcia F: M. Owens, H. Boyd, J. Higgins FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Macrae, M. Windhager I/C: L. O’Connell, M. Wood, H. Boxshall, T. Travaglia, R. Byrnes EMG: M. Heath, Z. Jones, A. Schoenmaker

This is a big year for the Demons. After spending three consecutive seasons inside the top four, they dropped ignominiously down the ladder in 2024 and missed the finals entirely. But while a number of their stars are getting towards the twilight of their career, they do still boast an elite starting midfield with Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver in full flight, a couple of star defenders and some very talented forwards.

If last week is anything to go by, however, they will not have an easy start to the year. The Giants were fantastic in the Opening Round, dismantling the Magpies to the tune of 52 points. They look likely to be very tough to beat this season, though games at the MCG are few and far between for them and they will miss their home comforts in this one. AFL betting sites have the Giants as slight favourites as this one, and while that’s understandable given their performance last week, the Demons can sneak over the line in a thriller on their home turf.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$2.05
	Demons 1-39	$2.70
	Demons +3.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons: B: H. Petty, S. May, J. Bowey HB: C. Windsor, J. Lever, C. Salem C: E. Langdon, J. Viney, T. Rivers HF: T. Sparrow, D. Turner, H. Langford F: K. Chandler, J. van Rooyen, B. Fritsch FOLL: M. Gawn, C. Petracca, C. Oliver I/C: H. Sharp, M. Jefferson, B. Howes, J. Billings, X. Lindsay EMG: A. Johnson, J. Adams, T. McDonald

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, S. Taylor, H. Himmelberg HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, L. Ash C: J. Kelly, C. Ward, X. O’Halloran HF: T. Bedford, T. Greene - C, B. Daniels F: D. Jones, A. Cadman, L. Keeffe FOLL: K. Briggs, S. Coniglio, F. Callaghan I/C: C. Brown, M. Gruzewski, C. Stone, J. Leake, J. Wehr EMG: O. Hannaford, C. Angove, L. Aleer

Round One ends with a slightly less interesting matchup between the Eagles and Suns, though both teams do have an intriguing year ahead of them. West Coast have been a disaster in recent years and while they will hope for some improvement this year, Andrew McQualter has a tough task ahead of him with a number of older players still hanging around.

The Suns, meanwhile, are now in season 15 and still haven’t made the finals – could this be their year? They’ve been close over the past few seasons but have continuously fallen at the last hurdle, and at some point they simply have to take the next step. Coach Damian Hardwick looks like the right man to take them there, but a loss against the Eagles would be a dreadful way to start. West Coast looked half-decent at home for a stretch last year, but the Suns are a much better team and should really be able to win this one fairly comfortably.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$2.05
	Demons 1-39	$2.70
	Demons +3.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons: B: H. Petty, S. May, J. Bowey HB: C. Windsor, J. Lever, C. Salem C: E. Langdon, J. Viney, T. Rivers HF: T. Sparrow, D. Turner, H. Langford F: K. Chandler, J. van Rooyen, B. Fritsch FOLL: M. Gawn, C. Petracca, C. Oliver I/C: H. Sharp, M. Jefferson, B. Howes, J. Billings, X. Lindsay EMG: A. Johnson, J. Adams, T. McDonald

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, S. Taylor, H. Himmelberg HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, L. Ash C: J. Kelly, C. Ward, X. O’Halloran HF: T. Bedford, T. Greene - C, B. Daniels F: D. Jones, A. Cadman, L. Keeffe FOLL: K. Briggs, S. Coniglio, F. Callaghan I/C: C. Brown, M. Gruzewski, C. Stone, J. Leake, J. Wehr EMG: O. Hannaford, C. Angove, L. Aleer

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