NRL 2025 Least Wins Wooden Spoon Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

It’s not just at the top end of the NRL hierarchy where there has been little movement in recent years. While the Panthers have been busy collecting Premierships for fun, the Wests Tigers have been doing the same with Wooden Spoons. They have won three on the trot, but NRL betting sites are predicting a likely change this year, with no less than five teams favoured over the Tigers. That said, it’s a tight market, with little separating the top few, and below, we’ll take a look at how the seasons of each of those favourites are likely to pan out.

The Raiders have had an interesting couple of seasons. In terms of pure win/loss record they have done reasonably well, finishing 8th with a 13-11 record in 2023 and then 9th at 12-12 last year. But few would argue that they haven’t overperformed in both of those. They had the fourth worst points differential in 2023 despite making the finals and the fifth worst last year, and were it not for their habit of winning close games they would have been a lot closer to the bottom both seasons.

Of course, winning close games is a skill in itself, but a regression to the mean a little in that regard would see them slip right down the ladder. But it’s not just the fact that they have probably got lucky the last two seasons that makes them favourite for the Wooden Spoon this year. The Raiders lost a number of players to the Super League over the off-season, and their team looks much weaker on paper than it has in years past. They do still have some young talent, but it’s hard to see them maintaining their hold on a spot in the middle part of the ladder, and a big fall is very possible.

• What brings them here? The Raiders have overperformed the last two years and have been weakened in the off-season.
  
• What has changed? Quite a lot. The Raiders have lost Elliott Whitehead, Nick Cotric, Zac Woolford, Adrian Trevilyan and Jordan Rapana to the UK, while Ethan Sanders is their biggest gain.
  
• Injury report. At least they’re healthy, with a clean bill of health heading into the season.

Bet on the Raiders to win the Wooden Spoon @ $6.50 with BetRight

The Dragons had a decent enough 2024 season, defying the betting sites which had them pegged as one of the favourites to finish on the bottom of the ladder after finishing second-last the year prior to win 11 games and make it up to 11th. They were right in the finals mix then, and even if they are outsiders to make it again this year it’s not outside of the realms of possibility.

They picked up a few veterans in the off-season who, while beyond their best years, still have plenty to give on an NRL field, and with guys like Valentine Holmes, Clint Gutherson and Damien Cook running around they should really be better than at least a few teams. What exactly the Dragons are hoping for with this list isn’t clear, but they do not look like great value as a Wooden Spoon option.

• What brings them here? The Dragons have been out of the finals since 2018, though have added some experience to their list in the off-season.
  
• What has changed? As mentioned, Holmes, Gutherson and Cook come in along with Lachlan Ilias, while in a huge change Ben Hunt has left the club.
  
• Injury report. Each of Viliami Fifita, Sione Finau, Blake Lawrie and Christian Tuipulotu are on the injury list with TBC alongside them.

Bet on the Dragons to win the Wooden Spoon @ $7.00 with BetRight

The Dolphins picked up two extra wins in their second season compared to their first, very nearly making their way into their first finals series. Like in their debut season, their second half of the year was a lot worse than their first, but they hung onto their strong start for longer in 2024.

In terms of list construction there is no real reason to think that the Dolphins won’t again be pushing for finals this year, with a couple of retirements offset by the acquisition of Daniel Saifiti. Their presence so high on this list is due in no small part to the lack of obvious bad teams in the NRL, as well as – perhaps more significantly – the departure of coach Wayne Bennett. This will be the team’s first season without him, but Kristian Woolf will be hoping for a lot more than just to dodge the Wooden Spoon in his first year in charge.

• What brings them here? The Dolphins have had a pretty positive first couple of years in the league despite not making finals, and will be hoping to again push for the top eight.
  
• What has changed? Daniel Saifiti comes across from the Knights, while both Jarrod Wallace and Kenny Bromwich have hung up the boots.
  
• Injury report. Thomas Flegler isn’t due back from a shoulder till mid-season, Trai Fuller is listed as indefinite with his ACL and Jack Bostock as TBC, also due to a knee injury.

Bet on the Dolphins to win the Wooden Spoon @ $7.50 with BetRight

The Knights weren’t quite able to replicate the form which saw them storm into 5th in 2023 from the clouds, but they did once again finish the season strongly and three wins in their last three games saw them sneak into the finals for the second year in a row. Unfortunately, that was as far as they got, the Cowboys knocking them out in the first week.

Little has changed on the field for them this year, though the loss of Daniel Saifiti is certainly not insignificant. There is still some talent in this team, and if Kalyn Ponga plays a full year they probably won’t be finishing last. But they are not the most well-rounded team going around, and are vulnerable if he suffers another mid-long-term injury. 

• What brings them here? The Knights have made finals two years in a row, but with other teams improving this season they could be vulnerable.
  
• What has changed? Saifiti has headed to Redcliffe, while James Schiller joins the team.
  
• Injury report. The Knights are looking good on the injury front entering the season.

Bet on the Knights to win the Wooden Spoon @ $8.00 with BetRight

As far as tumult goes, the Rabbitohs took the cake in 2024. They had a bizarre year, going from one of the Premiership favourites with all betting sites in Australia to the runaway Wooden Spoon favourite within a few weeks, only to win five games in a row after losing nine of their first ten, then lose their last seven. Add a sacked coach into the mix, and you’ve got one of the bigger roller coaster seasons in recent times.

So what’s in store for them this year? Well, with Wayne Bennett returning to Redfern, there probably won’t be quite as much on-field erraticism as there was last year. In fairness they did suffer a massive number of injuries, and with a cleaner bill of health they were a decent side. Unfortunately they have had plenty of off-season ailments to worry about again, but with most of those not long-term this team should be hoping for some drastic improvement.

• What brings them here? The Rabbitohs fell off a cliff last year, with injuries, off-field concerns and shocking form seeing them tumble to second last.
  
• What has changed? Wayne Bennett. The new coach is the biggest change, while Josh Schuster is a potentially big in and Damien Cook has left.
  
• Injury report. Campbell Graham and Alex Johnston will miss around the first month of the season while Latrell Mitchell will be out a couple of weeks longer than that, and both Euan Aitken and Cameron Murray are listed as TBC. 

Bet on the Rabbitohs to win the Wooden Spoon @ $8.50 with BetRight

It’s something of a novelty to see the Wests Tigers so far down this list, though given how tight the market is they are actually not all that far away from the likes of the Raiders and Dragons. The Tigers have, of course, spent the last three years at the bottom of the ladder, winning just four games in the first two of those years. Last season, however, they improved to six, and some key acquisitions should see them continue that ascent this year.

Jarome Luai comes across from the Panthers to bring plenty of talent and winning experience, while Terrell May, Royce Hunt and Sunia Turuva also join the fray. At last the Tigers have something to work with, and though they have certainly made losing a habit over recent years, with so many new players on the field they should really be able to start turning that culture around in 2025. 

• What brings them here? The Tigers have lived at the bottom for the past three years.
  
• What has changed? Plenty. As mentioned, May, Hunt, Turuva and Luai have come on board, while the enigmatic Stefano Utoikamanu has left.
  
• Injury report. There is no set timeline on Brent Naden’s return from a knee injury.

Bet on the Tigers to win the Wooden Spoon @ $9.00 with BetRight

The Warriors had a really disappointing 2024 season, failing to consolidate their season prior in which they flew up the ladder to earn a double chance and ultimately make a Preliminary Final. They won only nine games and finished in 13th, but they have secured a big fish, quite literally, in the off-season.

James Fisher-Harris heads home from the Panthers to provide them with a player that is not only one of the best in the game on the field, but who will hopefully provide them with a big cultural boost – one which seemed very necessary at times last year. With Tanah Boyd also joining the team, the Warriors will be hoping to bounce back and make finals this year, and a Wooden Spoon would be a disastrous result.

• What brings them here? The Warriors’ disappointing 2024 season has seen expectations surrounding them diminish rapidly.
  
• What has changed? Fisher-Harris is a huge pick-up while Tanah Boyd should also help, though they have lost Shaun Johnson.
  
• Injury report. Rocco Berry and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak both have no timelines on their respective injuries.

Bet on the Warriors to win the Wooden Spoon @ $11.00 with PlayUp

There were a handful of runaway Wooden Spoon favourites last season, and after a disastrous first month which saw them lose every game and their captain for the year, the Titans were it. But they gradually found some form and through the middle parts of the year actually looked like a pretty good team, though five losses to the end the season was not an ideal conclusion.

Still, they showed some good signs, and while they did not make any major moves in the off-season, there will be one big change on the field this year with the return of Tino Fa’asuamaleaui from his ACL injury. The Titans have a pretty big gap between their best and worst case scenario this year which could make them value in this market, but they seem far more likely to win close to double figure games than finish on the bottom.

• What brings them here? The Titans’ worst last year was horrendous, though on the flip side their best was pretty good.
  
• What has changed? Tanah Boyd has headed over to New Zealand, while Reagan Campbell-Gillard comes across from Parramatta.
  
• Injury report. Kieran Foran and Josiah Pahulu are both listed as TBC entering the season, while Reagan Campbell-Gillard misses Round 1.

Bet on the Titans to win the Wooden Spoon @ $15.00 with PlayUp

This is a fascinating market entering the season, with very few teams looking likely to be all that bad. But of course, someone has to lose every game, and one of the above will almost certainly be the team to do that the most often. Each of the teams listed has at least some reason to be optimistic, but the side with the least to look forward to might be the Raiders. They’re far from a disaster, but they may well be worse than last year and if they don’t win virtually every close game like they have the past couple of years. They could be in for a big drop. With new betting sites, old betting sites and everything in between listing them around a $6 favourite, they still look like decent value.

• Only 2 sides have won the NRL Premiership within 2 years of winning the Wooden Spoon, – the Panthers in 2003 and the Sharks in 2016. No team has ever won the NRL Premiership the year after a Wooden Spoon win.

Most Wooden Spoons Won

• 17 – Western Suburbs Magpies (now defunct), lastly in 1999.
• 14 – Parramatta Eels – most Wooden Spoon finishes among current clubs.

Least Wooden Spoons Won

• The Wests Tigers, Manly Sea Eagles and St George Illawarra Dragons have never won the Wooden Spoon, while the Canberra Raiders finished last only once in their maiden year in the NRL competition in 1982.

Most ‘successful’ Wooden Spoon turnaround team

• The 2009 Sydney Roosters finished last and bounced back to reach the 2010 NRL Grand Final but were denied the ultimate turnaround after being defeated by the St George Illawarra Dragons in the ‘big dance’.