NRL 2024 – Best Outsiders to Make the 2025 NRL Grand Final

Once again, it’s the Storm and the Panthers who head into the 2025 season as favourites to make the Grand Final – just as they did last year. But with a tight season expected, NRL betting sites are still offering decent value for each of them to repeat that effort. And further down the list, there is no shortage of good teams capable of making the Big Dance if all goes right. On this page, we’ll take a look at the teams that present the best value to play in the 2025 NRL Grand Final.

The Storm are not exactly an outsider here – in fact, they are the favourite – but we’re going to include them as a value selection given that they are still better than even money to make the Grand Final. They are the most consistent team in the league by some way having finished top six every year since 2002, and in seven of the last nine seasons they have finished in the top two.

A top two finish, of course, means a home Qualifying Final and a home Preliminary Final if they win that, and given the Storm’s dominance in Melbourne, if they can finish top two again this year they will be well on their way to a Grand Final appearance. Given they finished last year on top of the ladder by two games – and that with plenty of injuries to key players throughout the year – they are in a great position to do so again in 2025, and if they do they will be very hard to keep out of the Grand Final.

• What brings them here? The Storm being up the top of the ladder is about as certain as death and taxes, and they will be right in the mix for the Grand Final again this year.
  
• What has changed? Not too much, with Stefano Utoikamanu their most notable signing and Christian Welch retiring.
  
• Injury report. Dean Ieremia is listed as TBC with an Achilles, while Nelson Asofa-Solomon misses the first two games through suspension.

Bet on the Storm to make the Grand Final @ $2.15 with BetRight

The Panthers are far from outsiders in this market either, but at close to $3 with betting sites they still look like decent value. There is no denying that they have been weakened by the loss of Jarome Luai and James Fisher-Harris, but bear in mind that this is a team that has made the Grand Final an incredible five times in a row, winning the last four of them.

Despite those losses, the Panthers will be satisfied with nothing less than a fifth consecutive Premiership this season, and if they fail to make the Grand Final it will no doubt be internally perceived as a massive disappointment. They may no longer have the cattle to expect to waltz into it like they have in the past, but they are still going to be incredibly tough to beat in the finals. 

• What brings them here? The Panthers first made the Grand Final in this run in 2020 when they lost to the Storm. They’ve made it every year since, and won them all. 
  
• What has changed? Fisher-Harris and Luai are gone, while Blaize Talagi and Isaiah Papali’i join the team.
  
• Injury report. Liam Henry and Brian To’o both have injuries entering the season with no set timeline for a return.

Bet on the Panthers to make the Grand Final @ 2.75 with PlayUp

Last year was a major disappointment for the Broncos, but given they got within a couple of minutes of winning the Grand Final just a year prior, there is every chance they will catapult back up the ladder in 2025. This team has talent in spades – they just need to remember how to more consistently show it, and new coach Michael Maguire will, they hope, go some way to helping them do just that.

The Broncos will be without Ezra Mam for the first nine games of the season through suspension, but with names like Reece Walsh, Selwyn Cobbo, the aging but still damaging Adam Reynolds and the newly acquired Ben Hunt running around, they nonetheless have plenty of potential. It’s hard to fully trust this team after last year, but at their best they are more than good enough to make the Grand Final and are decent value to do so.

• What brings them here? The Broncos flew up the ladder two years ago before falling back down it last year, but will be looking to climb their way back up in 2025.
  
• What has changed? Ben Hunt is a big acquisition, while they have lost Corey Oates.
  
• Injury report. Mam is out till Round 10 and Kotoni Staggs till about Round 5, while Jack Gosiewski and Blake Mozer both have injuries but haven’t been given a specified return date by the club.

Bet on the Broncos to make the Grand Final at $3.75 with BetRight 

The Bulldogs have relatively rapidly overturned their roster over the past few years, and it started to pay dividends last season. After losing their first couple of games, they were one of the best performed teams for much of the season and for a long time looked destined to nab fifth position, and potentially do some damage in the finals. Unfortunately they lost their last two games to drop to 6th and then lost to Manly, but their potential was plain to see throughout the course of the season.

They have picked up a couple of players in the off-season, but by and large they have kept things pretty stable – a far cry from their previous summers. That is a good indication of where they are at, with this team now expecting to not just play finals, but to win at least one or two of them. With an easy draw to start the season, the Bulldogs’ expectations could easily rise after a few weeks, and a Grand Final appearance – albeit unlikely – does not appear out of their grasp.  

• What brings them here? Continual list turnover is finally starting to pay dividends, with coach Cameron Ciraldo now in charge of a solid team.
  
• What has changed? Tom Amone comes over from England and Sitili Tupouniua from the Roosters, though they have lost Josh Addo-Carr.
  
• Injury report. Enari Tuala will be unavailable for a couple of months with a foot injury, while Tupouniua and Josh Curran miss the first game of the year.

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the Grand Final @ $6.50 with BetRight 

For most of last season, the Roosters looked like the best chance of preventing a Storm vs Panthers Grand Final. Ultimately they couldn’t do that and were shown to be a class below in the Preliminary Final, but a season in which they scored the most points in the league and won 16 games was far from a waste of time.

Unfortunately, it may have been their last chance to actually win a flag for a little while, with a huge number of their starting team leaving the club in the off-season. It will no doubt be very difficult for the Roosters to repeat their efforts from last year, let alone exceed them, but even with those departures they still have a decent list. If they can find a way to maintain something resembling what they showed last year they could push for top four, though that is admittedly a big if.

• What brings them here? The Roosters had a really good 2024 even if they were proven to be a level below the top two.
  
• What has changed? Plenty. Among their biggest losses are Jaered Waerea-Hargreaves and Joseph Manu, while Chad Townsend joins the club.
  
• Injury report. A lot of ‘TBCs’ on the Roosters’ injury list, with each of Sam Walker, Brandon Smith and Egan Butcher listed in that way. Spencer Leniu returns from suspension in Round 3.

Bet on the Roosters to make the Grand Final @ $9.50 with PlayUp

Now we are getting to the real outsiders, and it’s easy to see why. The Rabbitohs finished above only the Wests Tigers last season, so jumping from there to a Grand Final would be quite an achievement. Admittedly it is highly unlikely, but this is a team with a lot more scope for rapid improvement than a typical 16th-placed finisher from the year prior.

They entered last year as one of the Premiership favourites, but injuries and dreadful form led to the sacking of the coach and a lot of losses. They showed they still have something to give with five wins on the trot in the middle of the year though, and this year will be under the guidance of Wayne Bennett. If he can get them on the straight and narrow from the outset, they should be expecting to challenge for finals. It’s a bit of a mish-mash of a team, but at its best could be a dangerous one, and it would be no surprise to see them shorten in this market after a month or two of the season.

• What brings them here? The Rabbitohs were nowhere near it last year, but Wayne Bennett could help turn things around.
  
• What has changed? Damien Cook is gone, while Josh Schuster is an interesting inclusion.
  
• Injury report. Unfortunately there are again a few names here for the Rabbitohs; Cameron Murray and Euan Aitken are listed as TBC, Latrell Mitchell will miss the first six weeks, and Alex Johnston and Campbell Graham the first month.

Bet on the Rabbitohs to make the Grand Final @ $15.00 with PlayUp

The Warriors probably couldn’t compete with the Rabbitohs for the most disappointing team of 2024, but they were right up there. After finishing in the top four the year prior they had high hopes entering the season, but failed spectacularly to finish with just nine wins and miss the finals relatively comfortably.

But even with the same team the potential for improvement would be there, and with the addition of one of the best props in the game in James Fisher-Harris, that scope to climb back up the ladder is even bigger. They have a number of players capable of playing a hell of a lot better than they did last year, and Fisher-Harris is the kind of player who extracts a lot out of his teammates. If guys like Roger Tuivasa-Sheck can find their best, this team could again see a massive change in its fortunes this season. A Grand Final is a long shot, but their ceiling is higher than the odds set by betting sites in this market would suggest.

• What brings them here? The Warriors are at such long odds due to their poor 2024, but could have a much better season this year.
  
• What has changed? James Fisher-Harris is a massive signing while Tanah Boyd also joins, though they have lost Shaun Johnson.
  
• Injury report. Rocco Berry is out indefinitely with a shoulder and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak with a wrist.

Bet on the Warriors to make the Grand Final @ $19.00 with PlayUp

Now we’re really getting far-fetched, but in fairness the Tigers could easily fly up the ladder in 2025. They have, of course, finished dead last for the past three years, so a Grand Final appearance this year is incredibly unlikely. Improvement, however, is close to a given.

Already they showed a few glimpses last year, ultimately ending up with six wins after taking just four in each of the previous two seasons, but it’s their additions over the off-season that are the primary reason for the heightened expectations. Jarome Luai is a massive pick-up from the Panthers, while in Terrell May, Royce Hunt and Sunia Turuva they have three more players that will slot into their starting team. As far as long odds chances go, the Warriors and Rabbitohs are probably better bets, but the Tigers should improve this year.

• What brings them here? It’s certainly not a reflection of recent performance. The Tigers had a great off-season though, and will be looking for more than six wins this year.
  
• What has changed? Luai, Hunt, May and Turuva join the team, while Stefano Utoikamanu has left.
  
• Injury report. Further aiding the Tigers is a short injury list, with just Brent Naden out with a knee.

Bet on the Tigers to make the Grand Final @ $19.00 with PlayUp

There is every chance that the 2025 season once again ends with the Storm and the Panthers playing off in the Grand Final, and while neither of them is super short, we are still going to hunt for a little more value on the betting apps than that. The Broncos certainly have the capacity to go deep into the finals if all goes well, but the one team that stands out as offering some real value is the Bulldogs. Given they’ve been perennially unsuccessful in recent years that is a little hard to comprehend, but they were brilliant for most of last year, with just a slow start and end costing them. With a soft draw to kick off 2025 they could wedge themselves in the top four early and stay there, and at close to $7 with sites like Bet365, put themselves right in the mix to go deep into the finals.

Recent upset Grand Final winners

• 2016 – Cronulla Sharks 14 Melbourne Storm 12
• 2015 – North Queensland Cowboys 17 Brisbane Broncos 16
• 2001 – Newcastle Knights 30 Parramatta Eels 24
• 1999 – Melbourne Storm 20 St George Illawarra Dragons 18

Recent upset losing Grand Finalists

• 2019 – Canberra Raiders
• 2017 – North Queensland Cowboys
• 2011 – New Zealand Warriors
• 2005 – North Queensland Cowboys

Current clubs yet to play in an NRL Grand Final

• Gold Coast Titans – 2007 to Present