NRL 2024 – Best Outsiders to Make the 2025 NRL Grand Final

The Storm and the Panthers headed into the 2025 season as favourites to again make the Grand Final, but a slow start for the four-time reigning Premiers has seen their odds balloon out. And with a tight season seemingly on the cards, there is decent value with NRL betting sites for plenty of teams to get there, particularly if the likes of the Storm and Broncos don’t quite reach the lofty heights expected of them. On this page, we’ll take a look at the teams that present the best value to play in the 2025 NRL Grand Final.

It’s a little strange to have the Panthers as an outsider in this market, and while their odds are not all that lengthy, they are longer than they have been for some time. The loss of Jarome Luai and James Fisher-Harris was always going to thin this dynastic team out a little, but there remains more than enough talent and Premiership experience in spades to compete for an incredible fifth consecutive flag, and sixth consecutive Grand Final.

Their start to the season, however, was far from ideal. After beating the Sharks by six points in Las Vegas to kick things off, the reigning Premiers lost three in a row, and were overtaken by the Broncos in this market with betting sites in Australia as a result. But it’s a long season, and this is a team the likes of which we haven’t seen for many a decade. They might not be bursting at the seams with superstars like they once were, but they are still more than good enough to make the Grand Final, and their slow start to the year might make this a good time to jump on their inflated odds to make the Grand Final. 

• What brings them here? The Panthers are on the hunt for a sixth consecutive Grand Final appearance this year, though a disappointing first month has seen their odds to do so lengthen.
  
• What has changed? Fisher-Harris and Luai are gone, while Blaize Talagi and Isaiah Papali’i join the team.
  
• Injury report. Brian To’o will be out till Round 9 with a hamstring injury, while Scott Sorensen, Dylan Edwards and Nathan Cleary have all had injuries but return in early-mid April.

Bet on the Panthers to make the Grand Final @ 4.00 with BetRight

The Sharks have been hovering around the upper echelon of teams for a few years now, without ever managing to really look like a potential Premiership contender. In fairness they have gotten close, and last year were within just a game of making the Grand Final, but the distance between them and the Big Dance was bigger than just one game, as the absolute pounding they copped from the Panthers demonstrated.

So having spent three years in the top six, can this team take the next step and actually challenge? Plenty have their reservations, and for good reason – without all that much off-season change, do they have the ability to challenge the Storm, Broncos and Panthers when push comes to shove? Addin Fonua-Blake is a big pick-up at least, and maybe the finals experience they’ve gained over the past few years could help, but there is a good chance this team will once again be good, but not quite good enough.

• What brings them here? The Sharks have finished in the top four in two of the past three years, though they’ve won just one final in that time.
  What has changed? Fonua-Blake is a big pick-up, while they lost Royce Hunt in the off-season.
  Injury report. Liam Ison will be unavailable all season with an ACL, while Siosifa Talakai, Kayal Oro, Braden Hamlin-Uele and Kade Dykes are listed as TBC.

Bet on the Sharks to make the Grand Final @ $5.00 with PlayUp

The Bulldogs’ dramatic improvement last season saw them explode up the ladder and into the finals, and though it ended in ignominious fashion they appear set to take another step forward this year. They didn’t have the toughest draw to kick the season off, but they took full advantage with four wins in the first four games to secure a spot on top of the NRL ladder.

And while the first three of those weren’t against quality opposition, the fourth was a 20-6 defeat of the Sharks in Cronulla and was full of merit. The Bulldogs are a real smoky this season in a year in which three teams look like clear standouts, with their rapid improvement making it difficult to gauge just how far they can go. But they continue to impress, and there is every chance they emerge as the clear best chance to upset that top three as the season wears on.

• What brings them here? The Bulldogs’ continual list turnover is finally beginning to pay dividends, with Cameron Ciraldo now in charge of a dangerous team.
  
• What has changed? Tom Amone comes over from England and Sitili Tupouniua from the Roosters, though they have lost Josh Addo-Carr.
  
• Injury report. The Bulldogs have no long-term injuries at the time of writing, with each of Enari Tuala, Sitili Tupouniua, Viliame Kikau and Matt Burton set to be available in early-mid April.

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the Grand Final @ $5.50 with PlayUp

The Rabbitohs have been on an absolute rollercoaster ride over the past couple of years, and it’s anybody’s guess how it will play out this year. After entering last season as an apparent Premiership contender, they lost nine of their first ten, then won five in a row before stumbling to the finish line. But with Wayne Bennett now in charge, they appear to be righting the ship.

The Rabbitohs start to the season was really solid, with two tight wins in the first two weeks giving them a much-needed injection of belief which probably helped them to knock off the Panthers in Round 4. This team is far from perfect, but they do still have talent littered across the field, and now a head coach capable of extracting the best from those players. A Grand Final appearance would be an astonishing achievement after last year and is very unlikely, but plenty that the Bunnies have done over the past couple of years has been unlikely, good and bad.

• What brings them here? The Bunnies finished second-last in 2024, but shouldn’t have, and this year they appear set to fly back up the ladder.
  
• What has changed? Wayne Bennett coming in is the major change, while Josh Schuster also comes in and Damien Cook is gone.
  
• Injury report. Cameron Murray and Alex Johnston are listed as TBC, while Campbell Graham, Tyrone Munro and Euan Aitken are due back early-mid April.

Bet on the Rabbitohs to make the Grand Final @ $13.00 with PlayUp

After a really disappointing 2024 campaign, the Warriors entered this season hoping to re-emerge as something resembling the team that finished top four in 2023. The significant addition of James Fisher-Harris should help, though a dreadful 22-point loss to the Raiders was not exactly the ideal way to start.

But unlike last year, when the Warriors showed a distinct lack of fight at various points, they bounced back emphatically with a thumping win over the Sea Eagles, which they followed up with two more against the Roosters and the Tigers to take their record to 3-1 through the first month. They appear to be putting last season behind them, though there is no doubt they are still a long way behind the top three teams and probably a couple more. A Grand Final appearance looks unlikely, but if they can somehow put themselves in the mix for a top-four finish then it’s not entirely out of the realms of possibility.

• What brings them here? The Warriors are at such long odds due to their poor 2024, but have started this season well and should be at least right in the finals mix.
  
• What has changed? James Fisher-Harris is a massive signing while Tanah Boyd also joins, though they have lost Shaun Johnson.
  
• Injury report. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck will remain out until about Round 11, while Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is due back a week earlier and Tom Ale a week before that. Rocco Berry is listed as indefinite.

Bet on the Warriors to make the Grand Final @ $13.00 with PlayUp

The Titans’ first month of 2025 has been dramatically different to what they endured last year. In 2024, they were pumped in every game and lost their captain to an ACL injury, but as the season wore on they became a really competitive team and actually looked like an outside chance of sneaking into the top eight for a period of time. They didn’t, but with captain Tino back there was always the prospect of some improvement this year.

And the early signs are good. In the first month, the Titans won three of four games, beating the Knights and Roosters easily and the Dolphins by eight points, while their solitary loss came to the Bulldogs. They do not really profile as a legitimate Grand Final contender and probably aren’t, but it’s now been close to a full year during which the Titans have been really competitive. It would be no surprise to see them outperform expectations and make the eight, maybe even win a final, though a Grand Final appearance is probably out of reach.

• What brings them here? The Titans had a solid 2024 season after a dreadful start, and have kicked off 2025 in much better fashion than last year.
  
• What has changed? Tanah Boyd is out, while Reagan Campbell-Gillard joins from the Eels.
  
• Injury report. Keano Kini, Alofiana Khan-Pereira and Kieran Foran are all listed as TBC.

Bet on the Warriors to make the Grand Final at $15.00 with PlayUp

Laugh if you will, and fair enough too – a Grand Final is a long shot for good reason for the Tigers. But the fact that they are even listed in this market is a win for this club after the last few seasons. Three consecutive Wooden Spoons now in the rear-view mirror, the acquisitions of Jarome Luai among others was always going to give the Tigers a big boost this year, and the early signs are that they will be closer to the top eight than the bottom of the ladder in 2025.

The Tigers split their first four games 2-2, but those two wins were big ones while both of their losses came by just two points, meaning incredibly, they could very easily have found themselves 4-0 at the end of the first month. Of course, they did not, but nonetheless the improvement of this team is already plain to see. They should be happy just to compete for the finals, though the experience they have brought in, particularly a guy like Luai off the back of four consecutive flags, won’t want to settle for just that. Don’t expect a Grand Final appearance just yet, but the Tigers are finally on the up.

• What brings them here? Some major off-season acquisitions have seen the Tigers improve dramatically after a tough few years.
  What has changed? Jarome Luai, Royce Hunt, Terrell May and Sunia Turuva join the team, while Stefano Utoikamanu has left.
  Injury report. The Tigers have a pretty full list to choose from at the time of writing, with Brent Naden set to be available from Round 7 and Jarome Luai just missing the one game after being suspended in Round 4.

Bet on the Tigers to make the Grand Final @ $19.00 with PlayUp

While the Tigers are rising, the Roosters appear to have taken a dramatic tumble, though not an unexpected one. After finishing top four and making the Preliminary Finals last year, the Roosters’ list saw a massive overhaul in the off-season and as expected, they are struggling as a result.

The Roosters lost three of their first four games, but perhaps giving them some reason for hope was a six-point win over the Panthers in Round 2. There is somehow still some decent talent on this list despite the mass exodus, and at their best they might still be able to cause a few upsets. If they can find a way to play like that a lot more often than they did in that opening month they could hang around the top eight, though it is almost impossible to see them getting near a Grand Final like they did last year.

• What brings them here? The Roosters were just a game away from the Grand Final last year, but are a rank outsider after their off-season.
  
• What has changed? Plenty. Among their biggest losses are Jaered Waerea-Hargreaves and Joseph Manu, while Chad Townsend joins the club.
  
• Injury report. The Roosters are cagey with their injury reports this year, listing each of Brandon Smith, De La Salle Va’a, Sam Walker, Fetalaiga Pauga, Egan Butcher, Benaiah Ioelu and Tyler Moriarty as TBC at the time of writing.

Bet on the Roosters to make the Grand Final @ $23.00 with PlayUp

While this does loom as an incredibly tight year in the NRL, with a plethora of teams all capable of beating or losing to one another on any given day in the middle parts of the table, there is some separation at the top. The Storm, Broncos and Panthers are likely to be the three best teams, and below them it’s hard to see many teams challenging the status quo. The Bulldogs look the most likely of the rest having started the season really well, but the value for me right now is, believe it or not, the Panthers. Certainly their start to the season has not been good, but despite their off-season losses this is still a team more than capable of winning a fifth consecutive flag. With their odds having drifted with betting sites following that slow start, they now look like decent value to return, yet again, to the Grand Final.

Recent upset Grand Final winners

• 2016 – Cronulla Sharks 14 Melbourne Storm 12
• 2015 – North Queensland Cowboys 17 Brisbane Broncos 16
• 2001 – Newcastle Knights 30 Parramatta Eels 24
• 1999 – Melbourne Storm 20 St George Illawarra Dragons 18

Recent upset losing Grand Finalists

• 2019 – Canberra Raiders
• 2017 – North Queensland Cowboys
• 2011 – New Zealand Warriors
• 2005 – North Queensland Cowboys

Current clubs yet to play in an NRL Grand Final

• Gold Coast Titans – 2007 to Present