NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Jan 31

Not a great day for us yesterday, with two tips missing out and the third a non-starter after Jordan Hawkins didn’t fly to Dallas with his Pelicans, but hey – those days happen! We get the opportunity to bounce back tomorrow with a five-game slate, tipping off when the Hawks host the Cavaliers and the Lakers welcome the Wizards. The game of the day takes place a couple of hours later when the Rockets take on the Grizzlies, which is where we will start our bets off. After that, we’ll move to the Blazers vs Rockets game, with a couple of player props from that one rounding out our day. Take a look at all those bets below.

Ja Morant under 21.5 points @ $1.95 with PlayUp

Yep, you read that right – we’re betting on an under! As rare as that might be, this one looks too good to ignore. For starters, betting sites have set Morant’s line more than a point over his season average. That alone wouldn’t be all that big a deal, but given he is barely scoring at the moment it only serves to make this bet even more enticing. Morant has not passed this line for five consecutive games, and he has been getting further and further away from it every night. Five games ago, he had exactly 21 – then he had 19, then 16, while in his last two games he has failed to surpass it combined, scoring 10 and 11 points in those two outings. He hasn’t been particularly efficient, but more than that he just hasn’t been very aggressive, averaging only 12 shots per game across those last five. Morant is not going to get even close to the 22 points he needs to pass this line taking just 12 shots very often. Of course, he may well take more in this game, but recent evidence suggests the contrary and even if he takes a few more, we’ve got a fair bit of leeway given how far he’s been from scoring this number in recent games. This one is expected to be a reasonably high-scoring game, with the line set at 238, which does not work in our favour, but despite that the evidence points overwhelmingly to Morant failing to hit this line in what should be a fantastic game of basketball.

Toumani Camara over 5.5 rebounds @ $2.03 with QuestBet

Toumani Camara has taken a solid step forward in his second season in the league, and in recent games he has gone up another level during what has been his best patch of form since entering the NBA. The Belgian can do a bit of everything – defence has always been his most notable quality, but he is beginning to prove his capability at the other end of the floor too, cutting impressively, putting the ball on the floor and hitting the three-ball with a lot more consistency too. That improvement has seen him get more minutes, which invariably only further improves his numbers across the board too. His uptick in rebounding is partially to do with that increase in minutes, but it’s also likely a product of him generally becoming more confident and involved in the game, because he's certainly been going after the boards with greater tenacity during this period of form. Camara averages 5.7 rebounds per game on the season, but he has had at least six of them in five consecutive games, and in his last two has had 20 in total. Overall during this five-game stretch, Camara is averaging 7.6 per game, well beyond what the betting agencies have him pegged for in this one. Making matters even better for us, they seem to be thinking it more likely that he goes under the 5.5-rebound total, with the over sitting at better than even money at the time of writing. Given his recent form, even at around $1.75 or $1.80 the over would look like a good bet, so at more than $2 it definitely looks worth jumping on.

Franz Wagner over 22.5 points @ $1.90 with Unibet

Sticking with the same game to round out our three bets of the day, we’re going to hone in on the recently returned Franz Wagner. Having to lead the Magic for a number of weeks after Paolo Banchero went down early in the season, Wagner was one of the favourites for the Most Improved Player Award and was putting up close to 30 points virtually every night. Unfortunately, he bizarrely went on to suffer the same injury as Banchero himself and spent an extended period of time on the sidelines as a result, but he has been back for three games now and appears to be picking up exactly where he left off. With Banchero and he now sharing the floor it would be reasonable to expect Wagner to take a little more of a backseat than he was when he was running the show alone, but that has not proven to be the case. The talented German is still being super aggressive on offence, with he and Banchero both taking in excess of 20 shots each over the past two games. With those two clearly the best offensive players on the team, they are going to take a large proportion of the Magic’s shots, so even with Banchero out there Wagner looks likely to continue to put up solid numbers. In his first game back, Wagner only managed 20 points, but in the two games since he has managed 32 and 29 on an average of 23.5 shots per game, well in excess of the line set for him in this game. Two games is obviously not a huge sample size, but those shot numbers and the number of points they have translated to are right in line with what Wagner was doing prior to his injury. He’s averaging close to 25 points per game for the season, which even on its own would suggest that over 22.5 points is a good bet, but considering that he looks to have taken a big step forward since Banchero went down and is not planning to slow down even after an injury and with his running mate back on the floor, this looks like a great bet to round out the day.