NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Mar 28

Not quite the day we were after yesterday with one of our three bets hitting – that’s what you get for trusting team’s injury reports! After being listed as doubtful to play, Nikola Jokic suited up for the Nuggets and Jamal Murray’s output dropped significantly as a result, while elsewhere we just hit on Ivica Zubac and just missed on the Lakers/Pacers under. We have eight games to sin our teeth into on Friday, as we look to bounce back with a line bet to start, leading into a couple of player props. Take a look at all our reasoning below.

Magic -6.5 @ $1.95 with QuestBet

The Mavericks were always going to struggle after trading their generational superstar in Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis, only to have Davis suffer a medium-term injury in his first game in new colours and their other star, Kyrie Irving, tear his ACL a few games later. All that misfortune, poor decision-making, whatever you want to call it, has seen them tumble down the table and outside of the top ten, putting their spot in the Play-In Tournament in peril. Anthony Davis has returned in the nick of name, making his comeback a couple of games ago, but he played just 27 minutes and then sat the next game. He is a game-time decision for this one, and while his presence would certainly help the Mavericks, if he does play he won’t be out there for all that many minutes, nor can his production be expected to be what it is when he is fully fit and firing. On paper this is still a very thin team, and while the Magic are not exactly championship contenders, they do have a couple of very good players and have begun to recapture their early-season form of late. The Magic have won three games in a row, a period which included a 12-point defeat of the Lakers, while the game prior to their most recent loss they beat the top-of-the-East Cavaliers – and in Cleveland no less. They are jostling for spots in the Eastern Conference, looking to sneak past the Hawks to secure 7th spot and a home first game of the Play-In Tournament, and at the moment they are jostling pretty successfully. Also on our side here is the fact that the Magic are a much better team at home and the Mavericks are a much worse team on the road, where they have lost four of their last five with the only win coming against the hapless Nets. Though the Mavs have at times punched above their weight amidst all their injury woes, they have been reliant on unsustainable performances, like the admittedly impressive Naji Marshall scoring 38 points last game – and even that wasn’t enough to prevent a 15-point loss. When it’s all said and done, the Magic are a much better team than the Mavs without Davis or Irving, and even with an underdone Davis on a minutes restriction they should still have them covered in their current form. On Magic home turf, the 6.5-point line set by betting agencies does not look like enough. 

Josh Giddey to record a triple-double @ $4.00 with Unibet

Josh Giddey has been toying with a triple-double virtually every night he has suited up since the All-Star break over a month ago now. In 12 games during that time, the Australian is averaging a hugely impressive 22.6 points, 10.2 rebounds and 9.1 assists, but despite that betting sites still have him as a nearly four-to-one chance to get there against the Lakers. Granted Giddey has fallen just short on a number of occasions, but with him getting there so close every night the odds look pretty tasty regardless. He’s picked up a TD in two of his last five games – including an incredible near quadruple double when he had eight steals – and fell just an assist short the game before that, so at worst he should be given this a serious run for its money at long odds. Since Zach LaVine was traded to Sacramento, Giddey has been given a far more significant role at the offensive end of the floor and he is quietly going around reminding the NBA world why he was taken with the 6th pick back in the 2021 draft. There is no reason to think that he will not continue his great form at home against the Lakers, and he looks a better chance to pick up another TD than the odds would suggest.

Jazz to score under 106.5 points @ $1.90 with PlayUp

It’s no secret that the Jazz are not a particularly good offensive team – nor are they particularly good defensively, for that matter, but for the purpose of this bet we will focus on their offensive shortcomings. That has been the case all season, during which their offensive rating of 110.4 ranks them 25th in the league. And it’s only getting worse; since the All-Star break that rating is down to 107.7, while in their last six games it’s a paltry 103.3. In those last six games, only once have the Jazz scored more than 103 points, and when they did it was against the Wizards, who are, incidentally, the 28th-rated defensive team in the league this season. The Jazz are seriously struggling to score against virtually anyone with a half-decent defence, and the Rockets certainly have that. Under coach Ime Udoka, Houston has a defensive rating of 109.7 this season, which has been bettered by only three other teams. That does not bode well for a Utah team who, it has recently been publicised, has given the green light to Walker Kessler to jack it up from long-range virtually at well – the result has been a whopping 4-26 in his last six games at a rate of 15.4%. The Jazz are in full tank mode and do not particularly want to win, not that they have the capacity to put up winning totals even if they wanted to. Having failed to surpass 103 in five of their past six games, the line of 106.5 set by NBA betting sites for them against one of the best defences in the league looks far too high. Expect them to once again struggle to hit triple figures in this one.