NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Mar 27

We have a potentially very close day of NBA games this Thursday, with all six games remarkably boasting a line of 4.5 points or less with Australian betting sites. Some of them might be close but are not particularly consequential – looking at you, Sixers vs Wizards – but others will have a major bearing on the playoff race in both consequences, with the Pacers hosting the languishing Lakers, the Knicks hosting the Clippers, the Bucks heading to Denver to take on the Nuggets and the Suns playing the Celtics in Phoenix. We’re going to focus on the first three of those for our best bets of the day, with an under leading into a couple of player props in what should be an enthralling day in the NBA.

Under 235.5 total match points @ $1.87 with QuestBet

Few would have guessed it, but the Lakers have made a late-season charge for a top-four seed courtesy primarily of defence. Their strong form has faltered a little over the past three games, with hefty losses in each of those, but by and large this team has been involved in relatively low-scoring games for some time now and even among those losses, the only exception came when they conceded 146 points to the Bucks. That was the only game out of their last six that has gone over the points total line that betting agencies have set for this game, and if we go back further we get an even more emphatic picture. Since the All-Star break, which encompasses nineteen games, just two have seen 236 points or more scored, giving them a strike rate of nearly 90% when it comes to the under set for this game going back over a month. That is a compelling number and clearly those unders have come against all manner of team, but having said that the opposition does still, of course, need to be considered in over/under bets. But while the Pacers are typically seen as a fast-paced, high-scoring team, that hasn’t really been the case of late. They, too, have gone under this total for the past three games, none of those match-ups yielding more than 222 points, while going back further they have also only passed this number in three of their past nine games. The scores in Lakers games since the All-Star break alone suggest that this line is way too high, but when the Pacers’ more subdued scoring of late is factored in, the under looks like a quality bet to start off our day.

Ivica Zubac over 16.5 points @ $1.85 with PlayUp

Ivica Zubac is having the best season of his career, and over the last few weeks has been in the best form of that season. The Clippers big man is averaging 16.4 points per game, bang on what the betting sites have set his line at for this game, but there is good reason to think he’ll breeze past it in this one. In the past 11 games, Zubac is averaging an impressive 21.4 points per game, and importantly for this bet he has been getting around that number with plenty of consistency. Last game, he had 15 points, and that was the lowest total he has had in that 11-game stretch, with only one other failing to hit the 16.5-point over set for this game. That would suggest that at the very least he will go close to this, and most likely pass it, but making this bet even more enticing is the match-up. Zubac will be going toe-to-toe with Karl-Anthony Towns, one of the most talented offensive big men we’ve seen – as he demonstrated in his 26-point triple-double in the Knicks’ most recent game – but at the other end of the floor, Towns is a liability. His lack of defensive ability is one of the reasons that the Knicks, coached by the typically defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau, have struggled at that end of the floor this season, and the Clippers should be able to take advantage. Expect Zubac to be on the end of plenty of pick-and-roll deliveries from Harden in this one, and with limited resistance he should probably be able to hit the 20-point mark, and certainly pass his 16.5-point line.

Jamal Murray over 24.5 points @ $1.87 with PlayUp

The importance of Nikola Jokic to the Nuggets, not that it was ever doubted, has been plain to see over the past week or so, with the current three-seed losing three of their past four games without the three-time MVP leading the charge. His absence leaves a major hole at the offensive end of the floor, and while nobody is capable of picking up the significant slack he leaves behind, Jamal Murray is the closest thing. He missed the first couple of games that Jokic sat and struggled in his first back with just ten points, but in the past two he has taken on that responsibility with aplomb. Two games ago, he scored 39 points against the Rockets on a huge 28 shots, while last game he scored 28 from 22 shots in just 32 minutes. Murray can be very hot and cold and his aggression levels on offence can vary wildly, but the fact that he has taken such a high number of shots over those past two games should give us plenty of confidence that he will be leading the way offensively once again in this game. Obviously, all of this is contingent on Jokic sitting – if he plays, all bets are off on Murray. But the big man has been all but ruled out for this game, which will leave his much more diminutive teammate to run the show. NBA betting sites have boosted his line a little for this one, with 24.5 points nearly three above his season average, but if – as expected – he again takes close to 25 shots or more, it’s very likely that he will be surpassing this number and potentially scoring 30+.