NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Apr 25

Yesterday was a grim little day from a betting perspective, with our first two NBA tips for the day missing out and the third going down the toilet when the target of our player prop, Jimmy Butler, managed just 8 minutes against the Rockets before being subbed out with injury. But tomorrow is a new day, and with some trends beginning to emerge after a couple of games from each series, there are a couple of tips that stand out as presenting really solid value across the day’s games. Take a look at our three best NBA tips and predictions below.

Jalen Brunson over 29.5 points @ $1.87 with Unibet

It’s common for a team’s best player to take on an increased role in the playoffs, and that has been exactly what Jalen Brunson has done so far in his team’s first round series against the Pistons. Despite having returned from a relatively lengthy injury just a few games earlier, the wily point guard has been taking a lot of shots in the first two games, and while his efficiency has only been around par he has still scored plenty of points. He's taken 27 shots in both of those two games, hitting 12 of them in each to end Game 1 with 34 points and Game 2 with 37 points – well above his season average of 26 per game. Betting agencies have certainly adjusted to cater for this heightened role, setting his line around 3.5 above his season average at 29.5, but based on the first couple of games that adjustment does not look like enough. Brunson has been scoring at a slightly lowered efficiency relative to what he has managed throughout the course of the season, and while that’s to be somewhat expected with more shots being taken, it also highlights that his 35.5 point average over those two games has not by any means been the result of some unsustainable shooting performances. Brunson is simply taking a lot more shots than usual and will likely continue to do so, and if he does then he will be scoring 30 points more often than not and only missing out on that number when he has a really poor night from an efficiency perspective. If the Knicks’ guard gets close to those 27 shots again in this one, he will much more likely than not be scoring at least 30 points for the third time running.

Thunder -9.5 @ $1.87 with QuestBet

This has been an incredibly one-sided series, and while the Grizzlies at least get to return to Memphis for Game 3, it’s hard to imagine that alone being enough for them to stem the bleeding that has occurred over the first couple of games. Even during the regular season the Grizz were no match for the best team in the West, losing to them by an average of nearly 20 points per game, and that hefty margin was made to look like nothing in a Game 1 that was as impressive for OKC as it was humiliating for Memphis. The home team came out firing and by the end of the first half had more than doubled their opposition score, opening up a ridiculous 42-point lead which extended to 51 by the end of the game. It’s testament to just how much better the Thunder are that their comfortable 19-point win in Game 2 was a comparatively gallant defeat for the visitors. Making matters even worse, the heartbeat of the Thunder’s offence in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has not even played well. He’s averaged just 21 points on a woeful 33% shooting from the field in those two games, extremely out of character for the likely MVP, who is probably the most consistent scorer in the league. Yes, we head to Memphis for this game, but even so the 9.5-point line set by betting sites looks far too low. The Grizzlies have not been able to even compete with the Thunder so far this series, even with SGA barely firing a shot. OKC will be keen to get this series over and done with as soon as possible to give them some rest in what they anticipate will be a deep playoff run, so expect them to come out and wipe the floor with their dramatically inferior opposition once again.

Nikola Jokic to score 35+ points @ $5.25 with PlayUp

It’s moving time in the Nuggets vs Clippers series. This has been probably the most enthralling matchup in the first round, with Game 1 going to the Nuggets in overtime and Game 2 seeing the Clippers win by three points on the road, and we now head to Los Angeles for a pivotal Game 3 in the best matchup of the day. In pivotal games there are stars who falter and stars who rise, and throughout the course of his career, Nikola Jokic has been firmly in the latter of those categories. Every season he has played in the postseason, he has averaged substantially more points in the playoffs than the regular season. The Joker has an uncanny ability to simply play better when he needs to, and in a really evenly matched series locked at one win apiece, he needs to in this one. The Clippers have defended him well so far, particularly in Game 2 when he got up only 16 shots – albeit still scoring an efficient rate for 26 points, and a triple-double to boot. In Game 3, however, I fully expect Jokic to come out looking to dominate his opposing number, and look to score heavily from the outset. The three-time MVP averaged just a tick under 30 points per game during the regular season and usually ups his numbers in the playoffs, and he is more than capable of putting up 40+ point performances. We’re not even asking for that. All we need from Jokic here is 35, a number that he can reach with his eyes closed if he looks to score first on offence. Despite scoring 29 and 26 in his first two games, I’d have his line set more around the low 30s, and at closer to $2.50 or $3 to score 35. In excess of $5 to reach that number with NBA betting sites like PlayUp is hard to ignore.