NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Jan 23

Thursday’s NBA action is filled with high-quality matchups all across the day, with four of the nine games set to take place across the day taking place between two bonafide playoff hopefuls. The first of those will see the Mavericks host the Timberwolves in a repeat of last season’s Western Conference Finals, while later on, the Rockets host the Cavaliers, the Warriors head to Sacramento to take on the Kings, and the Clippers face the Celtics to round out the day. Take a look at our three best bets for Thursday’s action below.

Onyeka Okongwu to record a double-double @ $2.10 with PlayUp

It’s long felt like only a matter of time until Onyeka Okongwu takes Clint Capela’s spot as the starting centre for the Hawks, and in their latest outing that’s exactly what happened after a huge few games by the 6th pick in the 2020 draft. Okongwu has been steadily increasing his production over his four and a half seasons in the league but has generally only played low-to-mid 20s when it comes to minutes, with Capela getting the rest. But long-term, Okongwu has more upside, and he has begun to show it in recent games. Prior to the Hawks’ latest outing, the 24-year-old averaged 18.3 points and 15.7 rebounds per game, unsurprisingly snaring a few more minutes as a result of that production – though he was still doing that in just 29 minutes per game. He was subsequently moved into the starting line-up and once again picked up 28 minutes, and though that was the first time he missed out on recording a double-double in four games, he went very close with 14 points and 9 rebounds. Whether he stays in the starting lineup remains to be seen, but regardless, Okongwu is playing at a heightened level and receiving more minutes as a result, both of which are likely to see him recording a double-double more often than not. Having done just that in three of his last four games and just missing out in the other – averaging 17.3 points and 14 rebounds per game in that time – he looks like fantastic value at better than even money odds with some NBA betting sites.

Timberwolves -1.5 @ $1.88 with QuestBet

How the mighty have fallen. Maybe mighty is an exaggeration, but both of these teams were in the Western Conference Finals last season, and are now set to be locked in a tight tussle just to make the playoffs in 2025. The Mavericks, of course, are hampered severely by the absence of Luka Doncic, and it’s showed. On the face of it they don’t appear to be going all that much worse than the Timberwolves – in fact they are both 2-4 over their past six games – but a closer look at those results is a lot more concerning for the Mavs. Their last two losses have come against the dreadful Hornets and the Pelicans while they were beaten comfortably by the Nuggets in the two games prior, and while their sole victory in that period came against perhaps the best team in the league in the Thunder, that was with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sitting on the sidelines. The Timberwolves, however, while no doubt not playing as well as last season, have had a really tough stretch over the past few games. The four losses that they have suffered in their last six games have come by two points to the Grizzlies, seven points to the Cavaliers, one point to the Warriors and two points again to the Grizzlies. And just a couple of games ago, they smashed the Knicks to the tune of 17 points. At 22-21 this season has clearly not gone to plan to date, but they have been playing decent basketball against some of the best teams in the league of late and could easily have a much better record over their last few games. The Mavericks, certainly without Luka Doncic, are not close to a number of those teams that the Wolves have either beaten or very nearly beaten recently, but this game is still close to even money with most betting sites. The Wolves deserve to be favourites, and by more than the 1.5-point line these betting agencies have set.

Keyonte George to score 20+ points @ $3.30 with Unibet

Keyonte George is feeling himself at the moment, so now is the time to jump on before the bookies adjust. The 16th pick from the 2023 draft missed a few games through injury but returned last week, and he has come back in sparkling form. After averaging around 16 points on the season, he has put up 26, 26 and 23 in his three games since returning from injury, and is taking plenty of shots too – at least 20 of them going up in each of those games. That’s good news for us, because it makes this sort of scoring a lot more sustainable than it would be had he just been on a lightning hot shooting streak. In fact, he’s not even been shooting particularly well from long range in that time, going at 33% on a huge 11 attempts per game and hitting just 2-11 in his last game – that he still managed 23 points on that shooting is a great sign. The main issue with this bet is the fact that his Jazz are playing the Thunder in Oklahoma City and there is every chance that they will get absolutely pummelled, limiting his playing time. But the value is still there. In his first game back from injury, George needed just 31 minutes for his 26 points while in his next game, he needed only 27 minutes to hit the same number. He has clearly been given the green light to be more aggressive on offence and has taken to that responsibility like a duck to water, so even against a team as good as the Thunder, George is fantastic value to hit the 20-point mark for what would be the fourth consecutive game at well over $3 odds.