NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Feb 21

After the NBA eased back into things on Thursday, it resumes in earnest on Friday with a solid slate of nine games over the course of the day. We hit two of three in the Hornets vs Lakers game yesterday, clearing both player props while missing out on the over/under, and we’ll hope for an even better result following a similar formula today – one over/under bet on a massive total to start the day, before rounding things out with a couple of player props. Take a look at our insights below.

Under 249.5 total match points @ $1.92 with QuestBet

Both the Grizzlies and Pacers generally play in relatively high-scoring games, but the line set by betting sites in this one is enormous. 249.5 points is about as high as it gets as far as this market is concerned, and while there should be plenty of points in this game, the under looks like the obvious play here. Let’s take a look at these two teams’ recent games. The Pacers’ last one saw 264 points scored, but that was in overtime – in regular time it hit just 240. Prior to that, the Pacers had played five consecutive games that failed to hit 250 points, and generally pretty comfortably – the highest total across those was 243 and three of them didn’t even get past 231. It’s a similar tale for the Grizzlies. Most of their games have been really high-scoring, but it’s testament to just how high this line is that despite that, very few of them have reached the 250-mark. In fact, their last five games have fallen short of that number as have eight of their last nine, and the solitary clash which went past it was a 251-point game against the Bucks which just barely cleared. With two fast-paced, high-scoring teams playing, there should be plenty of buckets in this, but it takes a lot for 250 points to be scored. Even if this game is played at breakneck speed as expected, it should fall short of this mammoth total.

Goga Bitadze under 7.5 points @ $1.82 with PlayUp

This is a bit of a weird one, but sometimes the best value is found in the less popular markets – of which this is certainly one. I’ve got nothing against Goga Bitadze, but he is not exactly renowned for his scoring prowess and he has been struggling to get involved on offence of late. The big Georgian is averaging a career-high 8.6 points per game this season, which is higher than the points line set by betting agencies for him in this game, but the under still looks like a good bet because in recent times, he has hardly been scoring at all. In his last eight games prior to the All-Star break, Bitadze had 14 points in one game – in the other seven, he had 2, 3, 6, 4, 2, 0 and 1. Overall in that time he averaged 4 points per game, and if we take out that 14-point anomaly that number is down to 2.6. His minutes are down, and what’s more, he’s barely taking a shot, which obviously makes it pretty hard to get to 8 points. In his last four games prior to the break, Bitadze took 2 shots, 2 shots, 1 shot and 4 shots for a total of 7 points across those four games, which makes his chances of getting to 8 points in this one look pretty slim. It’s not a great deal of points and all it will take is a couple of breakdowns in the Hawks’ defence for him to slip out the back for a few dunks and pass this number, but that simply has not been happening for a few weeks now, and the weight of probability looks well and truly in our favour going for the under here.

Stephon Castle over 14.5 points @ $1.98 with Unibet

Stephon Castle is having an excellent first season in the league. He’s the favourite for what is admittedly a relatively low-quality race for the Rookie of the Year, but over the past couple of months he has begun to play at a level which would be deserving of the award in many years, not just this one. To top things off, he had a successful debut at the NBA All-Star weekend, finishing second in the dunk contest and winning the Rising Stars MVP award. Castle could count himself a little unlucky at being removed from the Spurs’ starting lineup following their acquisition of De’Aaron Fox given that he had just begun to really find his feet as a starter at the top level, but he has taken it like a pro and not taken a backward step since moving to the bench. His minutes have still dropped a little, but he is forcing the coaching staff to still give him plenty of minutes with some really high-level play when he is on the floor. In the five games since moving to the bench, Castle has averaged 19 points per game and has scored at least 15 points in the last four of them, while harking back further, he’s at 18.3 points per game for the last ten. Castle is still getting solid minutes off the bench, but even when he does spend a little less time on the court he is finding a way to be productive – often the case when a starter level player moves to the bench given they are generally sharing the floor with lower-level players than the starters. Given that he has scored 15 points or more in his last four games and in eight of his last ten, the line set by NBA betting sites of 14.5 points looks a little low for the talented youngster.