NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Mar 20

We’ve had a good run of late on the NBA, but yesterday bucked that trend as we missed out on all three player props. It’s been a while since that has happened, and we’ll look to bounce straight back on Thursday on what is a big day in the association, no less than 11 games taking place over the course of the day around the league. There are plenty of pivotal match-ups over the day, not least when the Lakers host the Nuggets, but we will be focusing our attention on a couple of less exciting games, to put it kindly. Kicking off when the Pistons head to Miami to take on the wildly out of form Heat, you can take a look at our three best bets of the day below.

Pistons -5.5 @ $1.90 with QuestBet

To say that the Miami Heat are struggling at the moment is an understatement. They have now lost eight games in a row as they continue to tumble down the Western Conference standings, and the manner of those losses are getting worse by the day. Their last four losses have been by an average of over 20 points and at least 12 points in each of them, and their last two have been by 34 and 21 respectively. Throw in defeats to the Hornets and Bulls prior to that, and a picture of one of the most out-of-form teams in the league is painted. The Pistons, meanwhile, have long been trending in the opposite direction, and incredibly are now nine games ahead of Miami. They were particularly impressive around the All-Star break when they won eight games in a row, but while that sort of form has subsided they are still by and large playing every big like a top six team in the East, and in their last two games have gone close to beating the Thunder, and pumped the Pelicans to the tune of 46 points. Right now, they are simply a far, far better team than the Heat, and even the home court advantage Miami will hold in this game does not look likely to nullify that – after all, they have lost five in a row at Kaseya Center anyway. The Pistons are charging towards their best finish in nearly two decades, and should be able to continue on their merry way with a comfortable win on the road.

Quentin Grimes over 24.5 points @ $1.82 with PlayUp

Quentin Grimes is absolutely balling. In the absence of basically every half-decent Sixers player, he has been forced to take on a huge offensive load and has handled it with absolute aplomb. The 24-year-old has been the focal point of the Sixers offence for around nine games now, and the numbers he has been putting up in that time make it hard to believe that he has never averaged more than 11 points in a season. In those nine games, Grimes is averaging 28.6 points per game, and that’s factoring in a 6-point and 14-point effort a couple of weeks ago. Over his last five, that average is up to a whopping 32.6, with at least 25 points scored in every single one of those games. He also scored 46 in his last outing against the Rockets, so it’s safe to say that the proverbial tail of the Sixers’ guard is well and truly in the air. With the Sixers line-up as it currently is there is no reason that Grimes won’t continue to average around 30 points per game for the remainder of the season, so while betting sites have no doubt significantly adjusted his points line from what he has averaged previously, 24.5 still does not look high enough. The Thunder are obviously a very good defensive team, but with Gilgeous-Alexander out they have one less capable perimeter defender to lock Grimes down, and the absence of the MVP favourite also gives the Sixers a better chance of hanging around and ensuring our guy gets decent minutes in this game. Given Grimes has also hit 30 points or more in four of his last nine, and gone within two points of that in two other games, that also looks like a decent bet at better than $3 with most betting agencies, but we’ll play it safe and stick with 25 just in case he is forced to sit a chunk of the last quarter.

Josh Giddey over 17.5 points @ $1.87 with Unibet

Before we get into this one, there is one significant caveat to mention; Josh Giddey is still only questionable for this game at the time of writing after missing the last three with an ankle injury. He does, however, appear to be a good chance of making his return, with coach Billy Donovan saying that he will suit up for either this game, or the one the following day against the Thunder. If he doesn’t end up playing, it’s no big deal – the bet will be null and void and your stake will be returned. If he does, however, NBA betting sites appear to have given us a really nice edge. Giddey has been absolutely balling since the Bulls traded Zach LaVine, doing a bit of everything and putting up some really gaudy numbers. His scoring has been particularly impressive, and in his last nine games he is averaging 22 per night. Most importantly, that is the product of really consistent scoring, and he has scored at least 18 points – the number we need for him to hit this over – a massive nine times in a row. A couple of those have been tight, but by and large he has been cruising past it into the low 20s. Obviously returning from injury is a bit of a red flag, but Giddey has only missed three games, so it’s not as though it’s been the kind of long-term injury from which we would expect a player to be eased back into playing with limited minutes. If Giddey does play he should get his regular 30+ minutes, and based on the role he has been playing for weeks now, how well he has been executing it, and the fact that he is coming up against a pretty unintimidating Phoenix defence, it seems more likely than not that he will go past this points line.