NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Feb 20

The NBA returns after the All-Star break with just a solitary game on Thursday, the Lakers hosting the Hornets in a matchup which probably won’t be particularly close, but which still bears plenty of intrigue. New recruit Luka Doncic has suited up for the Lakers on just two occasions, but he will be out there – albeit on a minutes restriction – on Thursday. LeBron is questionable after missing the All-Star game due to foot soreness, while Lamelo Ball is probable after his own ankle problems. With plenty up in the air of who plays and how many minutes, it’s not an easy game to tip, but we’ll try to work around all the uncertainty for our three best bets of the day.

Over 226.5 total match points @ $1.89 with QuestBet

The Lakers have not been a particularly good defensive team all season long, and having traded one of the best defenders in the league for a player in Luka Doncic, they’re not exactly about to get any better at that end of the floor. Doncic may end up one of the greatest of all time with ball in hand, but his defensive work leaves a fair bit to be desired at times, and with him in the team the Lakers will be looking to simply outpace their opponents in high-scoring shootouts, rather than limit them significantly defensively. That was evident in their first two games with their new star on the floor, with those games, both against the Jazz, resulting in 245 and 250 points – well over the 226.5-point line betting sites have set for this game. That said, the Hornets are not exactly an offensive juggernaut – in fact, they are third last in the league for offensive rating, and whether Lamelo Ball returns or not won’t necessarily make all that much difference – talented he may be, but he throws up an insane number of shots without all that much efficiency. But the Jazz are no world beaters on offence either, and they still managed 113 and then 131 points against the Lakers. The home team should put up plenty of points in this one, and as long as the Hornets don’t completely fall in a heap they should be scoring enough to get the points total over the line.

Luka Doncic under 25.5 points @ $1.96 with PlayUp

I love watching Luka Doncic as much as anyone and both hope and expect him to do well in Los Angeles, but his lines in his first few games as a Laker have been a little out of whack. Doncic can typically score 30 points in a game in his sleep, but prior to his first game in the purple and gold he had been out for a month and a half with a calf injury. Now, not only is he adjusting to a new, pre-existing system for the first time in his seven-year NBA career, but he is also operating on a significant minutes restriction and attempting to recapture his groove on the floor after an extended period out of action. And the result so far? 14 points in 24 minutes in his first game back, and 16 points in 23 minutes in his second. Despite those numbers, his over/under points total is around 25.5 or 26.5, depending on which betting agency you are using. That is bizarre to me. Obviously he is more than capable of scoring that number and he may well play more than 23 or 24 minutes in this game, but coach JJ Redick has already said he will still be on a minutes restriction in this one, so don’t expect him to see more than 30 minutes of action. Hopefully LeBron plays to keep the ball out of his hands a little, but even if he doesn’t, Austin Reaves will still be running plenty of offence too. Doncic was averaging 28.1 points per game for the Mavs this season and there is a good chance that will drop a couple of points over the remainder of the season on a team with a couple of other strong ball-handlers. With Doncic still finding his feet in Los Angeles and playing about ten minutes less than what he would at full fitness, his line should be nowhere near what it is just yet.

Rui Hachimura over 16.5 points @ $2.00 with Unibet

One Laker who has been excelling of late and seems to be showing no signs of slowing down with their new-look lineup is Rui Hachimura. The 27-year-old was playing some of the best basketball of his career prior to the All-Star break, with a hugely consistent run of efficient but sustainable scoring. Averaging 13.4 points on the season, that number is up to 19.7 over his past seven games, and he has been hitting right on that number most games. In fact, he has scored at least 19 in all but one of those games, with the solitary down game which dragged that average down a little coming when he had just 11 points against the Warriors. But by and large he has been doing the same thing every game, hitting a couple of threes, finishing at the rim on the back of some savvy cuts, and showing his wares in the post every now and then. NBA betting sites have, as usual, noticed this uptick in form, but are still not quite willing to accept this run of scoring as the norm. His points total is up on his season average, but given that he has managed at least 19 in six of his last seven games, over 16.5 at $2 with Unibet looks pretty juicy. There is every chance that Hachimura won’t continue to score 20 points per game for the rest of the season, but for the moment he is riding a wave of confidence and in the last two games prior to the break, benefited from the plethora of elite ball-handlers on the floor, rather than suffering from having to take fewer shots. Up against a pretty poor defensive team he should have no problems using the multiple weapons he has in his arsenal to score pretty comfortably once again, and cruise past this line.