NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Mar 19

Our betting week in the NBA will kick off on Wednesday, Australia time, for a short but sweet four-game slate in the association. It’s not the most thrilling start to the day’s action, but thrillers don’t necessarily equate to good value anyway and there are certainly a couple more entertaining games later in the day when the Warriors host the Bucks, and the Clippers take on the Cavaliers in Los Angeles. Two of our three bets for the day focus on those less interesting matchups, kicking off with a player prop on an Aussie making waves in the league this season. In fact, all three of our bets for the day are player-based; check them out below.

Dyson Daniels to record 4+ steals @ $2.50 with PlayUp

This is a hell of a lot of steals for just $2.50 of value, but Dyson Daniels is pretty damn good at getting them. In fact, he’s the best in the NBA, and by an absolute street. The man nicknamed The Great Barrier Thief is averaging an incredible 3.0 steals per game – coming in second is a number of different players at 1.8, giving him a 60% lead over the rest of the league. And in recent games, he has been even peskier than normal, with that average up at 3.6 over his past five games in which his steals numbers have read 5, 2, 4, 3, 4. He has hit at least 4 steals in three of his last five games, but pivotal to his capacity to get that number is the style of the other team. Where some teams play slowly and methodically and generally limit their turnovers, others fling it around with reckless abandon, and the Hornets are right up there with the teams most prone to doing just that. Only two teams in the league turn it over with more regularity with Charlotte, and that’s with their primary culprit having missed a lot of games this season. Lamelo Ball has been given free reign to do basically whatever he wants on this team as they tank their collective heads off, and as fun as that is to watch at times, it has also led to him being 5th in the league in turnovers per game. Even the teams and players most staunchly protective of the ball are not safe from Daniels’ otherworldly hands, and a team like Charlotte and a player like Lamelo will have the Aussie licking his lips at the prospect of another big day of thievery.

Cameron Johnson to score 20+ points @ $2.25 with Unibet

The Nets do not have much interest in winning for the rest of the season, and the team that they are putting out on a nightly basis is indicative of that. Cam Thomas has been put on ice for the remainder of the season, leaving an already dreadful offence even more lacking in shot creators, but one man who has continued to put up consistently good numbers is Cam Johnson. His third season in Brooklyn has been the best of his career, and with Thomas out he invariably takes more shots and scores more points. Thomas is averaging a solid 19 points per game this season, and it’s right around that number where betting sites have set his line. But with Thomas out, it should be higher. He has sat the last two games, and in those games Johnson has scored 23 (against the Celtics) and 28 (against the Hawks). Boston should be looking to pound their opposition into the ground at TD Garden in this one, but regardless Johnson should be getting plenty of looks at the offensive end of the floor, and as a 40% shooter from three-point range and around 47% from the field he will likely make them at a decent enough clip to go over his season average. Johnson is comfortably over even money to score 20 points with NBA betting sites, and having done that relatively easily in his last two games and with Thomas again missing this one, he looks like a far better chance than those odds would suggest to do it for the third time in a row.

James Harden over 23.5 points @ $1.95 with QuestBet

You know who is playing really well at the moment? James Harden. The former MVP has copped his fair share of flack in recent years and often for good reason, but he is having a solid (albeit inefficient) season and is in particularly good form of late. Harking back to early in March when he put up 50 on the Pistons, Harden is averaging a touch over 30 points per game over his past seven – granted that is influenced by that 50-piece, but even taking that out he’s still at just under 27 over his past six. And importantly for the sake of this bet, he has been extremely consistent while doing it. In every single one of those games Harden has scored at least 24 points, passing the line that betting agencies have set for this game. That’s a strike rate of right around 100% for those of you playing at home – a pretty solid number. Of course, he does come up against one of the best teams in the NBA in this game, but the Cavs are a high-scoring team and there will likely be no shortage of points in this game. What’s more, it’s expected to be relatively close, so there is minimal chance that Harden sits in the final quarter and a good chance that he will be taking the reins along with Kawhi Leonard late in the game if it is close. Having averaged 22.5 points per game for the year, in moving his line to 23.5 the bookies have adjusted for recent form a little, but given he’s still passed that number seven times in a row and is averaging over 30 points per game in that time, that adjustment does not to be enough. Harden should be able to cruise past this line for the eight time in a row to round out our day.