NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Apr 11

The NBA regular season is just a couple of games away from ending for each team, and with plenty of jostling for spots in the playoffs there is a lot on the line in Friday’s five-game slate. It starts off with a couple of big Eastern Conference games when the Pistons host the Knicks and the Pacers host the Cavaliers, while perhaps the biggest game of all is reserved for last when a couple of Western Conference contenders in the Grizzlies and Timberwolves square off. We will take a look at a couple of those games in our best bets of the day, and you can take a look at both of them and a longer odds player prop in another game below.

Jalen Duren over 2.5 assists @ $1.90 with QuestBet

Jalen Duren has not had the breakout season that many were expecting from him – in fact, he was better last season, his second in the league, than he has been in 2024-25. But the Pistons’ big man has come into a nice run of form lately, and as impressive as anything has been the passing ability he has shown in that time. Duren is a pretty good decision-maker under the basket and has now and then shown the capacity to pick up decent assist numbers, but he’s done it really consistently over the past few games. Averaging 2.7 assists for the season, that average is up to 4.2 over his past six games, and importantly for our bet he has picked up a handful of them nearly every game. In one of those six games he didn’t have a solitary assist, but in the other five of them he has had at least three. What’s more, in his last two games he has picked up six assists in each of them, the latter of which came in just 20 minutes of playing time. Despite all of that that, betting agencies have kept his over/under at right around his season average – in fact, it’s even slightly lower than his season average, with the over 2.5 assists paying better than the under. This is expected to be a relatively close game against the Knicks and with their two big men in Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson, Duren should see a fair bit of playing time. The way he’s passing lately, even in limited minutes he would be a good chance of passing this number, and if he gets close to a full game in then he should be cruising past it.

Giannis Antetokounmpo to record a triple-double @ $4.33 with PlayUp

It’s been a topsy-turvy season for the Bucks, and with Damian Lillard having been ruled out for a few weeks in late March, it looked like they might just limp to the playoffs and potentially even fall outside of the top five. But Giannis Antetokounmpo had other plans. The two-time MVP has put his team on his back of late to lead them to five consecutive wins, all but securing the five-seed in the process, and while they won’t likely move from 5th spot, don’t expect the ultra-competitive big man to let up. Antetokoummpo has had an excellent season overall, but he’s taken his game to another level over the past four games in particular, with his ever-elite scoring ability being complemented more than usual by his passing. Antetokounmpo averages a solid 6.4 assists per game this season, but over his past four games that is up to a whopping 12.8, boosted significantly by an incredible 20-assist triple-double against the Sixers. But while that certainly boosted that average, he’s been putting up big assist numbers every other night anyway, with the last three of those games yielding a triple-double for the Bucks’ best player, and the one before that only seeing him fail due to a low-rebounding tally. That is particularly unusual for Giannis – getting double-figure points is obviously a lock while he gets at least 10 rebounds nearly every night too. Typically it’s just assists stopping him from getting a triple-double, but given he’s picked up at least 10 assists in four consecutive games, he looks like great value to pick up another TD in this one. Giannis is also fully aware when he is getting close to this milestone, and it’s always nice to have the player themselves in your corner. If he gets close to another triple-double, which seems likely, expect him to actively look to get there. Perhaps the main issue with this game is that the Bucks will probably smash the Pelicans which could limit his playing time, but they will probably also score heavily when he is on the floor, which will just about cancel out that concern. If this gets up we’ve got a winning day regardless of what happens in the other two bets, and given his recent form that looks like a far better chance of happening than the odds suggest.

Zach Edey to record 12+ rebounds @ $2.10 with Unibet

Zach Edey has had an up and down rookie season when it comes to minutes, but just on the eve of the playoffs he is in the midst of perhaps his best run of form since entering the league. The 7’4” Canadian has been getting really solid minutes, playing at least 28 of them per game in his last four games after averaging just over 20 for the season, and he has been incredibly productive on the glass in those minutes – no great surprise given he has a wingspan of 7’11”. Edey averages 8.2 rebounds per game over the course of the season, but he has made those numbers look pretty paltry over the past week. In those last four games, Edey has racked up a huge 69 rebounds at an average of more than 17 per game, with his lowest tally in that time 13 rebounds. NBA betting sites have adjusted his line a little – it’s certainly a lot higher than his season-averages, but given he is likely to get close to 30 minutes once again, it doesn’t look to have been set at nearly enough. Edey is paying better than even money to pick up 12 rebounds, which he has done four times in a row and generally easily. I like those odds.