NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Mar 11

We went agonisingly close to continuing a really strong vein of form with a big $10 multi hit over the weekend, but unfortunately Ivica Zubac fell a solitary point short in the last leg. Admittedly the first leg hit by just a solitary point so we can’t feel too short-changed, but another point to the big Clipper would have made for a very nice Saturday! Alas, it’s back to the drawing board for Tuesday’s huge slate of games, which will see 24 teams take to the floor across the association. Punctuated by what we think is a great value player prop in the middle, below are our three best bets for the day’s action.

Luka Doncic over 30.5 points @ $1.82 with PlayUp

The Lakers are absolutely cooking, and new recruit Luka Doncic is a major reason of why. After an understandably slow start to life in the purple and gold, the former Maverick is slowly returning to something resembling his best and has developed a formidable partnership with the ageless LeBron James. Unfortunately, LeBron suffered a groin injury late in the Lakers’ most recent game and is now expected to be out for a week or two. Already Doncic has been putting up gaudy numbers in the past few games, but with his running mate on the sidelines he will need to be even more productive. Of course, more responsibility will also fall on Austin Reaves, but Reaves himself has just returned from a minor calf strain and looked a long way from his best last game. While he will still take on an increased role, Doncic will still have a lot more to do than he has so far in Los Angeles and should be taking plenty of shots as a result. The Slovenian superstar is no stranger to putting up big numbers – his season average was as high as 33.9 just two years ago – and while he has been a bit below that this season, he has scored at least 29 points in each of his last five games. He’s averaged 31.2 points in that time, which will likely be around what he will average for the rest of the year, and that is right where betting sites have put his line for this game. With LeBron out, however, it should be at least a couple of points higher. Doncic has been taking 20 or so shots most games with LeBron in the team, but with him out expect that number to be in excess of 25. With a lot to do and a pretty average Brooklyn defence to do it against, Doncic should be able to pass this line, potentially by quite a lot.

Josh Giddey to record a triple-double @ $5.50 with Unibet

This bet is value personified. Giddey is in sparkling form at the moment, with the increased role he’s been given since Zach LaVine was traded now resulting in some big numbers for the Aussie. For the season Giddey is averaging around 13/7/7, but in the eight games he has played since the All-Star break he is putting up 22.4 points, 11.0 rebounds and 9.0 assists per night. Unsurprisingly, NBA betting sites have by this point adjusted, putting his expected totals at right around 19 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists. They are all probably slightly too low, but where the real value lies is in Giddey’s triple-double chances. He is coming off one in the last game, while in four consecutive games prior to that he had gone very close, including a 19-13-9 game immediately before that triple-double in the last game. The aforementioned expected totals suggest he should go very close once again, which makes the odds on offer for him to hit this milestone very tempting. Triple-double odds do vary a little across different betting agencies, so feel free to shop around, though you can get some of the best odds for this market at Unibet and Bet365. Giddey will very likely at least go close to recording a triple-double in this game, and while he’s not necessarily one to stat pad he wouldn’t be the first player to go chasing an extra rebound or assist late in the game if he’s close. On top of that, this is a favourable matchup for picking up stats, with the fast pace and average defence of the Pacers generally lending itself to some productive numbers for opposing teams. This feels like a market that should be closer to $3 the way Giddey is playing of late, and what’s on offer looks like excellent value.

Trail Blazers +11.5 @ $1.93 with QuestBet

The Warriors are playing some really good basketball at the moment and are looking increasingly likely to earn a playoff berth with their new-look team, but this line looks a little too long. The Trail Blazers were one of the worst sides in the league for the first half of the season, but they have turned a corner of late and have become really consistently competitive. Granted they have lost three games on the trot, but they have come against some tough opposition and aside from an 18-point defeat to the Thunder, the Blazers have kept the damage to a minimum. In fact, in their last 11 games, that Thunder defeat is the only game which they have lost by more than the line set for this game. That’s during a period which has included – as well as a trip to OKC – away games against the Celtics, Cavaliers and Nuggets, as well as a home game against the Lakers. The Warriors, for all of their impressive form of late, are not as good as any of those teams, and shouldn’t be expected to become just the second team in a month to beat this Blazers team by such a hefty margin. What’s more, with the Mavericks losing at a rate of knots and likely to continue to do so in the absence of their best players, the Trail Blazers’ solid recent form has given them a very outside shot at snaring a spot in the Play-In Tournament, so even though they sit back in 12th with just 17 games to go, they do still have a bit to play for. The Warriors should win this game, but the line of 11.5 points looks too high.