NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Mar 7

We had another winning day yesterday, with a thumping win for the Bucks over the Mavericks followed up by a successful player prop taking us to two from three on the day. There are only six games set to take place on Friday in the NBA, the highlight coming in the last day when the red-hot Lakers take on the Knicks. But we’ll be watching that game for entertainment purposes only, with our three best bets of the day all coming earlier on in substantially less intriguing game. Take a look at them all below.

Josh Giddey 25+ points and assists @ $1.86 with PlayUp

Unsurprisingly, Josh Giddey has been given more opportunity since being traded to the Bulls than what he had on a stacked Thunder team, and since Zach LaVine was traded it has increased further. The Bulls are probably going to sneak their way into the Play-In Tournament but don’t have all that much chance of going further than that, and from the an organisational perspective they would probably much prefer to just slip down the standings a little further and boost their prospects of a high draft pick. And with a very limited team at their disposal, Giddey has been forced back into the kind of role he played throughout his junior career, spending a lot of time with the ball in his hands. And the former number six draft pick has excelled, particularly of late. Giddey has been exceptional since the All-Star break, averaging 21.4 points, 9.8 rebounds and 9.4 assists in that time. Betting sites have certainly adjusted his lines as a result, but not quite enough to be reflective of his current production. This is the case across all three of those categories, but points and assists are where the biggest edge appears to be and so that is exactly where we are focusing our attention. In the six games since the All-Star break, Giddey has had at least 25 points + assists every game and is averaging just under 31 of them. Despite that, his line for the two of those stats combined is just 24.5. At $1.86 with PlayUp, he looks like great value in this market. One thing to note: Giddey missed the Bulls’ last game with a quad injury and is no certainty to suit up in this one, but with this looking like a significant edge, it’s likely to be a great bet if he does.

Nets under 107.5 points @ $1.87 with QuestBet

There are a number of reasons why the Nets look likely to struggle to put up a decent score in this game. For starters, they are not good offensively – not at all. That has been the case all season long, with their offensive rating of 108.2 the fourth worst in the league, and since the All-Star they have been even worse at 105.2. The Warriors, meanwhile, have a newfound defensive identity since the acquisition of Jimmy Butler, and in their seven games since the All-Star break have the third best defensive rating in the league. Already that suggests that the Nets will really struggle to score, but it gets better. Obviously points scored is not just a product of how efficient a team is; it’s a product of how many shots they get too, and in this one they are not likely to get all that many. Since the All-Star break both of these teams are in the bottom ten in the league in pace, each playing less than 100 possessions per game, which means this is likely to be a slow-paced game. Combined with the Nets’ offensive woes and the Warriors defensive prowess, that suggests Brooklyn will probably be struggling to even get to 100. In their last six games, the Nets have passed the line betting agencies have set them in this game of 107.5 just twice; the Warriors, meanwhile, have also only allowed their opponent to score that many points twice in their last six games. Brooklyn looks far more likely than not to fail to hit this total.

Quentin Grimes to score 25+ points @ $5.50 with Unibet

The Sixers’ season gets grimmer by the week, but one beneficiary of their woes over the past couple of games has been Quentin Grimes. The 24-year-old has played just 11 games with his new team after being traded from the Mavs and has been pretty good in that time, and his production has been boosted significantly as a result of injuries to key players of late. Already Joel Embiid has been wrapped in cotton wool for the season, but more significant than that for Grimes’ role is a recent injury to Tyrese Maxey. He went down two games ago against the Trail Blazers, which means the Sixers’ new recruit will be shouldering a significant offensive load until he returns. Already he was doing a fair bit offensively – three games ago, even with Maxey and Paul George on the floor, Grimes was dominant, putting up a massive 44 points courtesy of some brilliant shooting. He followed that up with a quieter game, but in the Sixers’ latest outing against the Timberwolves, which Maxey missed, he again had a big game and scored 30 points. Paul George is questionable but will probably play in this game against the Celtics, but Maxey will not and Grimes will no doubt take plenty of shots as a result. Having scored 44 and 30 points in two of his last three games, and factoring in that he won’t have a lot of offensive firepower on the floor with him in this one, there is a good chance that Grimes goes big again here. NBA betting sites have his line set at around 17.5 points, which probably looks a little low, but Grimes is a confidence player whose output tends to fluctuate quite a lot from game to game. For that reason, it’s worth taking a punt for him to score big at long odds – after all, if he passes that even money line there is a good chance he will go on with it and score 25 or 30 points. We’re settling for 25+ points at $5.50 with Unibet, though if you can find some really long odds for him to score 30 that would be a decent bet too.