NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Mar 6

It’s a solid slate of NBA games on Thursday, with just over half the league taking to the floor across eight games. Most of those aren’t predicted to be particularly close, and we are with the bookies on a couple of those, with two of our daily bets banking on the favourites covering their lines. Rarely do we pick two bets from the same game, but we’re breaking that rule today with a couple of selections on the Pistons @ Clippers game, while we start off with a look at the Bucks heading to Dallas to take on the injury-ravaged Mavs. Take a look at our three best bets of the day below.

Bucks -10.5 @ 1.88 with QuestBet

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Mavs. After trading away a generational superstar in his prime for the injury-prone Anthony Davis, their new recruit suffered a medium-term injury in his first game in the blue and white. Kyrie Irving subsequently was forced to bear an enormous offensive load, and lo and behold he went and ruptured his ACL last game. The Mavs are copping plenty of heat for their decision-making – predominantly this is pretty understandable, though in fairness to them they would be a very good and arguably more well-rounded team than previously if everyone was fit and firing. But alas, they are not, and the remnants of this team is not going to be very good. Spencer Dinwiddie will presumably now be their starting point guard and Dwight Powell their centre, with not a whole lot else around them. Without Irving and Davis this is a team that if playing all season long together, would probably struggle to win 20 games, and it showed in their last game when Irving did his ACL in the first quarter – a 24-point drubbing at the hands of the Kings ensuing. Making matters worse, they now run into a Bucks team finally coming into some really good form having won six of their past seven games. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great player against every team, but against those with limited interior defence he is on another level entirely. With Powell their only rim protection, expect the two-time MVP to put on a show in this one and lead the Bucks to a really healthy victory. The 10.5-point line set by betting sites is not insignificant, but the visitors should be able to cruise past it.

Malik Beasley under 19.5 points @ $1.80 with PlayUp

I don’t love betting on unders, but this one stands out like a sore thumb. The Pistons are just about the best story in the NBA right now having won ten of their past 11 games, and Malik Beasley has played a significant role in their resurgence as a sparkplug off the bench. But as impressive as he has been, there is no reason for his line to be as high as the 19.5 points which NBA betting sites have it set at. For the season, the sharpshooter averages 16.6 points per game, and nothing has really changed of late. He’s still getting good minutes off the bench, taking plenty of shots and scoring a good number of points, but 20 is still a rarity for him – certainly comfortably less than a 50/50 chance. He’s gone under this number – albeit not by that much – in three consecutive games, but harking back all the way to mid-January, he has only scored 20 or more point in five out of 22 games. Had most of those unders been earlier in that time period I wouldn’t be factoring them all in, but it’s been a pretty even spread over that time, and the number of minutes he's received, shots he’s taken and points he’s scored has remained pretty consistent. Beasley is certainly capable of having 20 points and won’t likely fall well below the number, but he has been very consistent at scoring right around 14 to 18 points per game. For a player who so regularly scores right around his average, it’s unusual to see his line three points higher than what it probably should be.

Pistons -4.5 @ $1.89 with Unibet

Sticking with the same game, and while it might seem counterintuitive to bet on the Pistons after taking the under for one of their players, the visitors should still be able to get the chocolates without Beasley scoring 20 points – after all, as we just established, he doesn’t do that all that often and they have been winning at a rate of knots in recent times. They have been brilliant in the last 11 games, losing just once and knocking off a couple of good teams along the way, including the Celtics by 20 points and the Clippers by nine. In that time, they have the fourth best offensive rating in the league and the best defensive rating, with a net rating bettered only by the Cavs. The Clippers, meanwhile, are faltering. They have lost six of their last seven – including that game against the Pistons – and while that has been a tough stretch of games and most of their losses have been close ones, their confidence will no doubt wavering. More significantly than that, however, is the fact that they will be without Kawhi Leonard in this game. The former MVP hasn’t been his usual self since returning to the floor so far this season, but he has still been an important part of the Clipper side and that has shown in his recent absences. In the three games that he has missed harking back to just before the All-Star break, the Clippers have lost by nine to the Pistons, 18 to the Pacers, and needed overtime to beat the lowly Jazz. Against just about the most in-form team in the league, that does not auger well for them. They will be happy to return home after a monstrous seven-game road trip since the All-Star break, but they will be exhausted from that, missing their best player and facing a team with its tail flying high in the air. The Pistons should be able to cover this line to round out the day’s action.