NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Feb 5

Trey Murphy came to the rescue for us yesterday, with yet another brilliant performance from the 24-year-old giving us a winning day despite hitting just one of our three tips. On Wednesday, we will again focus on a couple of player props in a day which will see both the Lakers and the Mavericks take to the floor for the first time since the extraordinary Doncic/Davis trade – though unfortunately, we will have to wait a little longer to see either of those players in their new colours. Elsewhere, we turn our attention to the game of the day when the two best teams in the East go toe-to-toe. Take a look at the reasoning behind our three best bets of the day below.

Daniel Gafford 25+ points and rebounds @ $1.96 with PlayUp

Daniel Gafford must be feeling a little bit miffed. After bumbling along in the NBA for five and a half seasons as a solid but far from spectacular big man, he is playing the best basketball of his life by some margin over the past couple of weeks, just in time for his team to trade for Anthony Davis, who will likely steal a lot of his minutes. Of course, Davis has many times stated his preference to play alongside another big so the two may share the floor together at times, but nonetheless the presence of one of the pre-eminent big men in the league will certainly not help Gafford’s production. But while Davis is officially a Dallas Maverick, he will not be taking the floor in this game. He missed his last three games in Los Angeles with an abdominal strain and is not yet ready to go, meaning Gafford will likely once again get the minutes he has been of late. And haven’t those minutes been well-deserved? On the season, Gafford averages 12.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks, but since the middle of January he is putting up 18.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and a massive 3.6 blocks per night. Nothing much will change roster-wise for the Mavs in this game – Doncic hasn’t been playing anyway and Davis won’t make an appearance, so there is no reason to think that Gafford won’t continue on his merry way as an important player at both ends of the floor for the Mavs in this game. Betting sites have certainly adjusted his lines to an extent, but with his points line at 15.5 and his rebounds at 9.5, both are a little lower than they should be based on his recent for. If you want to pick one of them to bank on then fair enough, but given they are probably both unders, the combined points + rebounds line of 24.5 looks very good – a number that Gafford has passed in seven of his last nine games, often easily. Whether Joel Embiid plays or not could impact this given his quality defensively and ability to get opposing centres into foul trouble – he is questionable to play this game – but given he hasn’t been on the floor for weeks and when he has, he has looked a long way from his best, he likely won’t be the presence he normally is at either end of the floor if he plays. Gafford could easily pass all of the lines betting agencies have set him for this game, but the points + rebounds looks like one of the safest bets.

Either team to win by 6 points or less @ $2.50 with QuestBet

This is not a bet that we look at often, but it is really hard to see this game being decided by more than a few points in either team’s favour. The Celtics and the Cavaliers are the best two teams in the Eastern Conference and probably two of the best three teams in the NBA, and there is a very good chance that they will be playing off for a spot in the NBA Finals in a few months’ time as the two Eastern Conference Finalists. Both teams come into the game in strong form, the Cavs having won four in a row and the Celtics four of their last five, though the form of the former is particularly strong – those four wins have been by a ridiculous average of 26 points. Those wins have come against some decent teams, but the Celtics are obviously an entirely different proposition. With the likelihood of these two teams meeting in a higher stakes situation later in the season, they will no doubt approach this game with plenty of vigour, as they have the previous two occasions on which they have met this season. In the first of those, the Celtics won on their home floor by three points, while a couple of weeks later the Cavs got their revenge with a four-point win in Cleveland. Expect a similarly tight result this time around. The concern with this kind of bet is obviously that the game is close all the way through only for one team to climb out to a seven or eight margin late, potentially courtesy of free throws, but it still gives us a 12-point window to play with. And given the closeness of these two teams, that looks like enough to justify some good value odds with NBA betting sites.

LeBron James to score 30+ points @ $2.50 with Unibet

So did LeBron James know about the trade or didn’t he? It seems as though everyone was legitimately kept in the dark, but at the end of the day, who really cares? The trade happened, Anthony Davis is no longer a Laker and Luka Doncic now is. And in the wake of that trade, the Lakers have a big game to play on Wednesday up against their fellow Angelenos and a team vying for a similar spot in the Western Conference. We have seen time and time again LeBron James’ capacity to take things up a notch when it’s needed, but to hit this bet all he needs to do is keep playing the way he has been in Davis’ absence prior to the trade. LeBron’s running mate missed his last three potential games as a Laker with an abdominal strain, which invariably left more for the 40-year-old to do – and he did it. In those three games, LeBron scored 31, 24 and 33 points, with that sole occasion in which he didn’t hit 30 points coming when he played only 27 minutes in a blowout win over the Wizards. With Davis now gone and Doncic absent for at least a couple more weeks as he deals with his long-term injury, plenty of responsibility will remain on the very capable shoulders of the leading scorer in NBA history. His points line has been elevated a little as a result, but not enough. Averaging 24 points for the season, his over/under is at 26.5, but the recent evidence would suggest that he is a good chance of going well past that. Having hit 30 points in two of his last three games without Davis and only really failing to in the other because the Lakers won so easily, he looks like great value to do it again in what should be a close game between two strong sides.