NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Feb 4

The NBA world might still be reeling from one of the biggest trades in league history a few days ago, but even if discussion is centring largely around Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis, the regular season continues in earnest on Tuesday with ten games over the course of the day. Neither the Mavericks nor the Lakers is playing so we will have to wait a little longer to see the respective debuts of those two in their new colours, and our best bets of the day will kick off with another team that has recently traded away its best player in the Kings. Take a look at that bet and our other two best of the day below.

Domantas Sabonis to record a triple-double @ $5.50 with Unibet

The Davis and Doncic trade has justifiably dominated the headlines in recent days, but De’Aaron Fox’s move away from Sacramento is also a massive move for the teams involved. The Kings’ head office, not exactly renowned for its high-quality decision making, clearly didn’t see the team as it’s currently constructed as good enough to win a championship, and probably rightly so. And with Fox unwilling to commit long term to the team, they sent him packing to San Antonio, picking up Zach LaVine, a nice bounty of first-round picks over the next few years, and a couple of other bits and bobs. The result is a somewhat awkwardly constructed roster, with a lot of capable scorers and playmakers but no true point guard as they had with Fox. Already with Fox playing, the Kings ran a lot of their offence through one of the better passing bigs in the league in Domantas Sabonis, and with him now gone expect that to be even more the case – particularly if LaVine doesn’t suit up for this game. Sabonis had been in excellent passing form even prior to this trade, picking up three triple-doubles in a row before having a quiet game in his last outing, and with Fox out of the picture his chances of racking up double-figure assists is even higher. In essence, that is what this bet is – Sabonis should have no problems getting to either 10 points or 10 rebounds, but the odds of him notching a triple-double are a little better than simply getting 10 assists, so that’s what we’re going with. This bet will be aided even further if LaVine doesn’t play, but whether the new recruit is out there or not, the $5.50 available with Unibet looks pretty juicy considering he’s got there in three of his last four games.

Trey Murphy III to score 30+ points @ $4.20 with PlayUp

Continuing with the long odds player props here, this time riding the hottest hand in New Orleans. Trey Murphy III has had a breakout season playing a heightened role for the injury-ravaged Pelicans, and even with a lot of players back he’s continued to be one of their premier scorers. The talented 24-year-old is capable of scoring in a lot of different ways, and over his past couple of games he has used all of them to put together a couple of huge performances. After putting up 32 points on an impressive 13-17 shooting against the Mavericks a couple of games ago, Murphy notched up 40 against perhaps the best team in the business as the Pels nearly shocked the Celtics, hitting 15 of his 20 shots and 8 three-pointers along the way. Clearly that’s a big uptick on his typical production – Murphy is averaging 22.1 points per game this season – but he's obviously feeling himself at the minute and is the kind of player who is very hard to stop when he gets going. Those two games also made it four 30-point performances in his last ten games after he also put up 30 in back-to-back games a couple of weeks ago, so with betting sites offering over $4 for him to do it again he looks like pretty good value. Also in our favour is the fact that the Pelicans are playing the Nuggets, not exactly a defensive juggernaut – prior to their most recent game, the Nugs had conceded at least 122 points in five consecutive games, and the points total set by NBA betting sites for this one is a whopping 241.5. With a high scoring game expected and Trey Murphy’s proverbial tail high in the air, there is a good chance that he will put in another big performance in Denver.

Pacers -7.5 @ $1.88 with QuestBet

The Pacers have been rolling along very nicely for some time now, taking their record to 27-20 and moving to 4th in the East courtesy of a great last month of basketball. They have won an impressive 11 of their last 13 games, and plenty of those wins have been comfortable ones. Their average winning margin during that time is a huge 15.4 points, and only one of those victories has come by less than ten points. That makes the 7.5-point line set by betting agencies for their matchup with one of the league’s worst teams look very enticing. Those 11 games that Indiana have won in their past 13 is, incidentally, the same number that the Jazz have managed all season, with that 11-36 record the second worst in the league and the worst in the Western Conference. Utah enjoyed a rare win in their most recent outing against the Magic, but prior to that they had lost eight games on the trot, with the last five of those coming by at least nine points. Basically, the Pacers are winning the vast majority of games they are playing at the moment by double figure margins, while the Jazz are losing the vast majority of theirs by similarly substantial numbers. Logic would suggest that points towards a pretty comfortable win for the Pacers in this one. Of course, the game is being played in Salt Lake City, but it’s not as though the Jazz’s home court is much of a fortress – they are a woeful 4-17 there on the season. Things are ticking along nicely for the Pacers at the moment, and this game represents a great opportunity for them to notch up yet another comfortable victory.