NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Apr 3

Our focus on the favourites yesterday paid dividends, with two of the three best bets of the day – albeit one of them by just a solitary point. Still, a win’s a win, and we’ll look to make it two winning days in a row with Thursday’s nine-game slate. While the focus on big lines paid dividends yesterday and there are plenty more of them on offer for this slate of games, we will take a different approach today, with a couple of player props following a continuation of a troubling trend for the Knicks this season. Take a look at all of our best bets of the day below.

Cavaliers -10.5 @ $1.95 with QuestBet

The Knicks have had a solid season and will almost certainly finish as the third seed in the Eastern Conference, but based on their performance between the top teams there is an absolute gulf between them and the best. The Cavaliers, Celtics and Thunder have been the three standout teams of the regular season, and against them, the Knicks have a paltry 0-7 record. Making matters worse is the nature of those losses: against OKC they have an average losing margin of 17.5 across two games; against Boston they have an average losing margin of 21 across three games; and against Cleveland they have an average losing margin of 21.5 across two games. Those are some damning numbers, and making matters even worse for the visitors, they will be trying to change that trend against the Cavs in Cleveland, on the second leg of a back-to-back and without their best player. The Cavaliers are also back to something resembling their best after a rare down period a couple of weeks ago, having now won five of their last six games including their most recent one against a surging Clippers outfit. They are a dominant 32-5 at home this season and it’s very hard to see them losing this game, but betting sites agree having installed them as a short-priced favourite. But it’s the line that’s got our attention here. 10.5 points might seem like a lot against a capable Knicks team, but the proof has been in the pudding this season; New York doesn’t have what it takes to go with the best teams, and a day after a much easier game against the Sixers, look like they might be in for a double-digits defeat.

Trae Young over 11.5 assists @ $1.86 with PlayUp

People sometimes forget just how good a passer Trae Young is. He has plenty of shortcomings, not least his defence, while he’s also shot under 34% from three-point range in two of the past three seasons while taking plenty of them. But as a playmaker, he is in the absolute upper echelon of players in the NBA, and in the past couple of weeks has been setting up teammates like he’s shelling peas. Young leads the league in assists at 11.6 per game, right around the number NBA betting sites have set his line at for this game. But he has surpassed that number in five consecutive games, and in the past two he’s done it with ease. Over that five-game stretch, the Hawks’ point guard is averaging a huge 14 assists per game, and in his last two has picked up 19 against the Bucks and 15 against the Trail Blazers. He and his Hawks now head into what should be a high-scoring (the points total line is set at 238.5 points) and close (the game line is set at 4.5 points) clash with the Mavericks – exactly what we want for big stats. This game doesn’t look likely to be a blowout in either direction, meaning Young should be playing out the whole game, and the ball should be zinging around from end to end, giving him plenty of opportunities to make plays. Twelve is a lot of assists, but having hit it in his past five games and picked up at least 15 of them in his last two, Young looks like a better than even money chance to go past this number for the sixth consecutive time.

Norman Powell under 19.5 points @ $1.86 with Unibet

We don’t often take on an under, but this line really stands out. Norman Powell has had a fantastic season, the best of his career, averaging 22 points per game on some very good shooting percentages. Since the return of Kawhi Leonard, however, he has transitioned into a far less significant role on offence, and his numbers has suffered. Powell has actually had an excellent last couple of games, scoring 34 and 21 points, but those stand out as anomalies when looking at his recent performances. What’s more, the 34-point game came with Leonard out, which saw Powell take 24 shots as a result, but as soon as Leonard returned in their most recent game, Powell was back down to 14 shots and only surpassed 20 points because he was very efficient. Prior to those last two games, Powell had suited up six times since returning from injury, and failed to hit 20 points on one solitary occasion. In fact, most of the time he didn’t even get close, averaging just 11.8 points per game in that time and taking an average of just 10 shots. Those numbers are far more reflective of his role with both Leonard and James Harden playing. Powell is more than capable of picking up the scoring slack when one of the Clippers stars – particularly Leonard – is out, but when they are both playing the ball is in his hands a lot less and he will generally only take around 10-14 shots, which won’t often see him get to 20 points. The line betting agencies have set for this game is appropriate relative to what Powell has been doing all season long, but doesn’t really factor in the presence of Leonard in the team. Making him even more unlikely to hit the 20-point mark is the fact that the Clippers are 17.5-point favourites against a tanking Pelicans team. They should be able to waltz to a heavy victory with their eyes closed, and won’t likely need their starting five to spend much, if any, time on the floor in the last quarter. With Powell only generally taking a little over 10 shots per game with Leonard playing, and his minutes likely to be limited to potentially under 30 courtesy of a probable blowout, he will only pass this line if he has a really standout shooting performance – something he’s very capable of, but which is certainly far more unlikely than not.