NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Mar 1

We managed to split our three bets yesterday, winning one, losing one and having one made null and void by Bradley Beal’s absence. But Saturday is another day, and we’ll look to make it a winning one in what should be a really entertaining slate of NBA action. The day starts with the red-hot Pistons hosting the Nuggets, before the Celtics host the Cavaliers in a potential preview of the Eastern Conference Finals, while the day concludes with the LA derby when the Clippers take on the Lakers. Take a look at our three best bets for the day below.

Over 225.5 total match points @ $1.91 with QuestBet

The Pacers are generally a very high-scoring team while the Heat are quite the opposite, but this points line looks to be heavily favouring the home team’s game style. In general, Pacers games have been not just clearing this line, but flying past it. Their latest outing was a low-scoring one against the Raptors, but prior to that Indiana had gone past this points line by a massive margin, with their previous five games all yielding at least 240 points. That is not likely to be entirely offset by the Heat’s more deliberate style of play, particularly given that they have been involved in some fairly high-scoring games of late too. Four of the past five games that the Heat have played have seen at least 230 points scored, and when that’s combined with the Pacers’ penchant for fast-paced, points-heavy games, the line set by NBA betting sites in this game looks far too low. These two sides have already played three times this season, and those games saw 235, 229 and 243 points – all clearing this number and an average of nearly 236 points per game. All signs point to this one going over this number and relatively comfortably, so this looks like an excellent bet to kick off our day’s action.

Under 245.5 total match points @ $1.93 with PlayUp

Sticking with the over/unders for our second bet, this time we are focusing on a line that looks way too high. This is about as high a points total as you will get, and while both of these teams do generally score big, there is no reason to think that this game is a 50/50 chance of getting this high. Both teams are admittedly very capable offensively, each sitting in the top six in offensive rating, while the Grizzlies also play at the fastest pace in the league. The Knicks, meanwhile, are one of the slower teams in the league. But all that statistical mumbo-jumbo aside, the main reason that this under looks so tempting is that for all their offensive capability, these two teams rarely play games that hit this number. The Grizzlies have had two really high-scoring games in a row that have gone over it, but prior to that they played seven consecutive games that didn’t hit the 246 points – most of them going well under. The Knicks, meanwhile, have gone under this total in nine of their past 11 games. Clearly when two high-scoring teams get together the likelihood of a high-scoring game goes up and the expected total in this one should be higher than what it would be for matchups between the Knicks or Grizzlies and another team, but 245.5 is still incredibly high. Expect plenty of points in this game, but the chances of this one going under the line set by betting sites look pretty good.

Lakers to win @ $2.50 with Unibet

We round out the day’s action with a rare head-to-head bet, but one which looks like some very tasty value. The Los Angeles rivalry between the Lakers and Clippers hasn’t always been a super competitive one, but they are both good sides this season and there will be some added spice in this derby as a result. But the Lakers should not be underdogs to the extent that they are – if at all. They were already beginning to find their groove prior to the incredible trade which saw Anthony Davis sent to Dallas and Luka Doncic join the purple and gold, and the new-look lineup looks capable of potentially doing some serious damage in the playoffs. Harking back to January, the Lakers have won 16 of their last 19 games, and since Doncic joined the fray they are 5-2. Those two losses both came within his first three games, too – since then, they have won four on the trot against some good opposition, beating the Nuggets, Mavericks and Timberwolves in that time. They have entrenched themselves firmly in a runaway top five in the West, and the way they are playing look likely to lock up home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Clippers, meanwhile, are sitting just a couple of spots back in 6th, but five games separate them from the Lakers, and unlike their cross-town rivals they have been slipping of late. Ty Lue and his chargers have lost three of their last four games and have a 4-6 record over their past 10, and with only one game separating them from 9th they will quickly see themselves tumble down the standings if they don’t turn things around. Unfortunately for them, they run into a red-hot opponent on Saturday. The Lakers’ inflated odds are likely a product of the fact that they are playing the second leg of a back-to-back, but both games have been at home. There may be some concern that one of their stars will sit, but LeBron has rarely missed a game this season even on back to backs while Doncic is working his way back to full fitness. The latter is more likely to miss of the two, but even if he does, the Lakers were managing pretty well prior to his arrival anyway. This should be a quality game, but the Lakers’ odds should not be nearly as high.