NBA 2024-25 Rookie of the Year (ROY) Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

After one of the highest quality battles for Rookie of the Year in recent memory last season, battled out between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, the 2024-25 race is not quite living up to the high standards set by its predecessor. But what it lacks in quality, it is more than making up for in intrigue. This market has been incredibly volatile this season, with the odds swinging wildly almost from week to week. That is probably inevitable given that no one is exactly having an otherworldly season – all it takes is a strong few games from one candidate for them to fly up the rookie rankings, and vice versa when a player hits a form slump. Zach Edey went from favouritism to seemingly out of contention after an injury, but he has flown back up the list and is now odds on to win it, while Stephon Castle has slipped after establishing himself as the favourite just a few weeks ago. Below, we take a look at the chances of the favourites as it currently stands – though the way things are going, the situation could be vastly different within a few days!

Zach Edey went from favouritism, to seemingly out of contention after an injury, back to odds-on favouritism, and then back out to double-figure odds – all prior to the All-Star break. Jaylen Wells and Stephon Castle have waxed and waned but have by and large been the most consistent presences at the top of the market, while the current favourite, Kel’el Ware, has hardly done anything all year but flew into favouritism courtesy of a few excellent games. It’s a very tough market to pick but also one with plenty of potential favourites, so let’s take a look at how each of the major fancies are tracking.

Kel’el Ware (Miami Heat)

Without wanting to sound too condescending, it’s indicative of the glaring lack of standout rookies this season that Kel’el Ware is favourite to win this award. Through nearly exactly the first half of the season, Ware played 25 of a possible 40 games, and in that time averaged 13.2 minutes per game for 6.6 points, 3.8 rebounds and 0.5 assists. Even in a season like this, they are not even close to Rookie of the Year numbers – not even enough to get him in the conversation. Then out of the blue, Ware had three consecutive 20+ point games and moved into the starting lineup, and with the prospect with a lot more minutes over the back half of the season, his odds shortened quickly.

Ware has had a couple more good games since then, but more often than not he has struggled to produce a great deal, with four of his six games after that burst of 20-point efforts yielding 7 points or less. The Heat big man has plenty of talent and looks likely to get minutes if he earns them, which in a season with no standout rookies puts him in a good position to win this award. But with the All-Star break just around the corner and well over half the season already in the books, Ware is currently averaging 8.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 0.6 assists for the season. He still has work to do to get those numbers up to what a couple of his fellow rookies are doing, and while coach Erik Spoelstra will likely put him in a position to do that, he looks like yet another favourite to avoid in this market for the time being.

Bet on Kel’el Ware to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $3.00 with Unibet 

Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs)

Castle is one of a handful of names who have been relatively consistent in this betting market – though consistent is still a relative term. He has fluctuated from a favourite paying a little over $2 to double figures, but now he has settled in between at around $4 and looks like perhaps the best bet on the table. At the time of writing, Castle has unequivocally the best numbers of any rookie. 12.2 points, 2.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game aren’t numbers that exactly jump off the page, but he doesn’t have all that much competition, and what’s more, he has improved dramatically in recent weeks. In his past 11 games prior to writing, the talented Spur rookie was putting up easily ROTY-worthy numbers, playing 28.4 minutes per game for 17.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.

If he continues to produce in that manner then it’s really unlikely that anyone will beat him in this race, but the Spurs’ acquisition of De’Aaron Fox just prior to the trade deadline has thrown a spanner in the works. Castle is clearly a player of the future and San Antonio will be keen to give him minutes wherever possible – not that he hasn’t earned them anyway – but with Fox joining the fray, Castle now has both his new teammate and Chris Paul to contend with for minutes in the backcourt. Fox certainly elevates the Spurs’ ceiling this season, too, so they won’t just be handing out minutes for free. In Fox’s first game in San Antonio, Castle came off the bench and played only 20 minutes, but he did still manage 11-2-3, right around his season average. There is no doubting that the Fox trade doesn’t help, but Castle is looking increasingly comfortable on an NBA floor and has been better than all other rookies over the first 50 games of the season. He deserves to be favourite, and at $4 looks like good value.

Bet on Stephon Castle to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $4.00 with Unibet 

Jaylen Wells (Memphis Grizzlies)

Like Castle, Jaylen Wells has been a pretty consistent presence in the Rookie of the Year betting this season. It’s easy to see why – his season itself has been super consistent, with the rookie starting nearly every game and averaging over 26 minutes in that time. He hasn’t been wildly productive by any means, but the 11.3 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists is not all that far away from what Castle has been managing, and unlike Castle there is no reason to think that Wells’ minutes are going to decrease over the remainder of the season. 
 
But also unlike Castle, Wells has not shown the level of improvement as the season has worn on. He’s been very solid – solid enough to maintain a starting position on one of the top teams in the league – but the numbers he has been averaging have remained relatively steady throughout the season, and it seems unlikely that they will change dramatically over the remainder of the season. For him to win, he’ll need Castle to really suffer from the Fox trade, Ware not to improve too much, and even guys like Zaccharie Risacher and Zach Edey not to do anything too impressive over the last 30-odd games of the season. All of that is certainly possible in a season like this and Wells is a really safe bet in the sense that we probably know what we will get from him for the rest of the season more than anyone else, but I certainly prefer the value of a couple of guys around him in this market.

Bet on Jaylen Wells to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $4.00 with Unibet 

Zaccharie Risacher (Atlanta Hawks)

Zaccharie Risacher wasn’t a unanimous number one pick by any means and he hasn’t really played like one, but the Hawks certainly won’t be disappointed with what the second consecutive French top pick has delivered. He has started in nearly every game that he’s played for the Hawks, in that time averaging 11.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.2 assists – very similar numbers to Wells and not all that far off Castle, which makes the fact that he is nearly double their odds a little bewildering. What’s more, Risacher has hit a nice patch of form after missing a few games through injury – he put up 11-7-3 with 2 steals in his first back, then managed 30 points, 17 points and 17 points in his next two games.

Inconsistency has been a bit of an issue for Risacher, as it is for most rookies, and he that was abundantly clear in a 6-1-0 effort after that impressive trio of performances. But still – already his numbers are competitive with the fellow Rookie of the Year favourites, he appears likely to continue getting solid minutes, and has shown some improvement through the course of the season. Risacher probably suffers a little from the fact that expectations are higher on him given he was the number one pick, but on production alone he has been close to as good as any other rookie in the class, and looks like decent value at $7 as a result.

Bet on Zaccharie Risacher to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $3.00 with Unibet

Zach Edey (Memphis Grizzlies)

Zach Edey has been a huge mover in this market…in both directions…multiple times. He started the season as a tepid favourite, and started the season strongly. He then suffered a medium-term injury which saw him blow out to $20+ and seemingly put him out of the mix. On his return, however, he played really well, and with no one else having taken the bulls by the horns he quickly came into relatively short-priced favouritism. But his minutes and productivity subsequently waned, and out he blew once again. He’s now back out to double figures, but with a strong recent run of form he could be due for yet another shortening.

For the season, Edey averages 9.9 rebounds, 7.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks, but he has not reached those numbers with a great deal of consistency. He has had plenty of big double doubles, but a lot of games with only a couple of points and a handful of rebounds. In his last three games prior to writing, however, Edey has put up three consecutive double-doubles in limited minutes – 14 and 11, 16 and 14 and 13 and 15, all in 25 minutes or less. If he keeps doing that he’ll probably get even more minutes, and his production could be really solid. Edey is not out of this race by a long way, though having already missed about a quarter of the Grizzlies’ games this season, he won’t want to miss too many more. But the form of the 7’4” Canadian has been impressive of late, and his current odds may be worth jumping on before they shorten.

Bet on Zach Edey to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $11.00 with Unibet

Where to start? This is just an impossible market to predict, with the low level of performance from the rookies meaning that fluctuations are plentiful, and rapid. Invariably that also means there is a little value, and of the above players at least a couple of them look like a decent bet. Ware looks like one to be a-ware of – pardon the terrible pun – favourites all season haven’t lasted long at the top, and his favouritism is based on expected performance after a couple of good games rather than what he has done so far. Edey, at longer odds, has been better overall and also has the capacity to have a big end to the season, while Risacher has been similarly performed to the favourites and looks like decent value. But Castle has been our pick for much of the season, and right now he has the best numbers for the season overall and has been easily the best rookie over the past few weeks. The acquisition of Fox does not help and could cost him this award, but he still has more going for him than the others in this market, and at $4 looks like the pick.

• The top pick has secured the Rookie of the Year award 5 times in the last 10 seasons.
• Forwards and centers (PF/C) have seen limited success in recent NBA ROY history, with only 5 victories in the past 20 seasons.
• In this century, only one Rookie of the Year winner (Malcolm Brogdon, 36th pick in 2016) was drafted outside the lottery.
• In 16 out of the last 20 seasons, the Rookie of the Year has been selected among the Top 5 picks.

Last 10 NBA ROY Winners: