Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had a brilliant season, and in leading his team to the top of the Western Conference by a street and then some, is now the overwhelming favourite with all betting sites in Australia to win his inaugural MVP. SGA has been on autopilot all season long, developing into the most consistent and prolific scorer in the league. He is averaging 32.8 points per game for the season on an impressive 52.2% from the field, and with the number of free throws he gets his true shooting percentage is among the game’s elite.
Add to that some high-quality defence and 6.4 assists, and you’ve got MVP-worthy numbers no matter which way you twist it. Making Gilgeous-Alexander’s season even more impressive is that, courtesy in no small part of his own brilliance, the Thunder blow opposing teams out as regularly as anyone, meaning their starters are often not needed in the final quarter. Gilgeous-Alexander averages a relatively low 34.2 minutes per game – just marginally higher than his points average – and were he and his Thunder a little less dominant he could easily be averaging close to 35 points per game. Gilgeous-Alexander appears destined to win this season’s MVP and would be a very deserving winner, but unfortunately NBA betting sites have all but handed him the word and are offering little more than bank interest for him to win it. It’s hard to see any other outcome, but at this point in time there is little point on backing him to win.
Bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win the MVP @ $1.02 with Unibet
Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
Poor old Nikola Jokic. This has probably been the best season of what is rapidly becoming an historically great career, and having won three MVPs and probably deserving another during it there would be good reason to expect him to win another this season. Alas, that is not the way the narrative has trended and if the betting apps are to believed, it is not likely to happen. Unlikely as it seems now though, the race is not completely over, nor should it be. The Nuggets star is averaging absolutely ridiculous numbers this season; 29.7 points per game while shooting 57.5% from the field and 41.6% from the field, to go with 12.8 rebounds, 10.2 assists and 1.2 steals. His Nuggets team is not as good as Shai’s Thunder, but his impact on them is probably greater as without him they would almost certainly fail to make the playoffs.
Despite his brilliant season, the narrative appeared to be shifting in the favour of SGA as the season wore on, and a five-game absence for Jokic in March certainly did not help – particularly with the Thunder star putting up even better numbers than usual in that time. But Jokic returned with a 39-point triple-double in his first game back, and two games later scored a ridiculous 61-point triple-double on 18-29 shooting. It might seem like the MVP award is already decided, and with only a handful of games left it will probably be difficult for Jokic to change anyone’s mind who has already settled on Shai. If he manages to end the season with a couple more absurd performances like the aforementioned 61-pointer against the Timberwolves then who knows, maybe it will sway a few voters. If it were up to me, Jokic would be winning this award, and while that does seem unlikely, with the odds the way they are he is clearly the value pick at this point in the season.
Bet on Nikola Jokic to win the MVP @ $11.00 with Unibet
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
Another man who probably feels he has deserved a little more consideration in the MVP discussion this season is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The two-time winner has had another terrific season out in Milwaukee, putting up the same kinds of numbers that he has for years now; 30.4 points per game on 60.2% shooting, 11.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists. Bearing in mind he is also an elite defender, and you’ve got a player having a serious impact. But while Giannis remains one of the best players in the league, he has been outside the top couple in the MVP for a few years now for a couple of reasons. No doubt there is an element of voter fatigue – he won it twice in a row and while he’s continued to produce at a very high level, hasn’t really taken a notable step forward – but more significant is simply the incredible level of play of guys like Jokic, SGA, and in the past, Joel Embiid.
Also going against Antetokounmpo is the fact that his Bucks team just continues to disappoint. The Bucks will finish in the top six in the East to make the playoffs, but in the far inferior Conference, they will only finish with around 45 wins. That’s not Giannis’ fault and he is the reason they are in the playoffs at all, but team results do matter – as is evident in the Jokic vs Gilgeous-Alexander conversation. Giannis has had another terrific season, but don’t expect him to be getting any first-place votes in the MVP.
Bet on Giannis Antetokounmpo to win the MVP @ $501.00 with Unibet
LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers)
This has been a pretty fun season if you’re a LeBron James fan. The ageless wonder has continued to play at an incredibly high level, and though he is not as consistently dominant as he once was he has still found a way to average 24.4 points, 8.1 rebounds and 8.4 assists for the season. What’s more, his Lakers team have climbed up the Western Conference standings with Luka Doncic at his side to become a potential finalist in a competitive conference. Interestingly, it could be argued that LeBron hasn’t been the best player on either incarnation of the Lakers this season, with Anthony Davis followed by Luka Doncic holding that title.
But prior to the Luka traded, LBJ had appeared to re-establish himself as the number one man on this team, and even though Doncic now plays a heavier role in the offence, LeBron has been the one constant playing at a really high level on this team. Of course, unbelievable as his performances are at the ripe old age of 40, LeBron’s MVP run was never really going to bear any fruit and his two-week absence through March realistically saw it officially end. The fact that he is one of just a handful of players left with odds, however, is a testament to the incredible durability of one of the greatest athletes we have ever seen.
Bet on LeBron James to win the MVP @ $501.00 with Unibet
Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics)
Jayson Tatum has again had an excellent season as the best player on arguably the best team in the league – though SGA and his Thunder would have plenty to say about that, as might the Cavaliers given they are going to beat Boston to the number one seed in the East. Regardless of where you rate them, Tatum is a pivotal part of what they do, this season putting up very similar numbers to what he did in 2023-24; 27.1 points per game, 8.8 rebounds and 5.9 assists. But while those numbers on such a quality team might have been enough to challenge for the MVP award in certain years past, they won’t be this season.
There are simply too many dominant players in the league for someone doing what Tatum does to be able to truly put himself in the conversation for the MVP. With Jokic averaging a 30-point triple-double and Gilgeous-Alexander putting up better number, more efficiently, on a team which will win more games than the Celtics, there is no real reason why anyone outside of Bean Town would consider Tatum worthy of the MVP award. That’s not to criticise him as a player – he is one of the game’s elite and has willingly taken a slight hit to his numbers over the past couple of seasons to accommodate his teammates and help develop one of the deepest and most well-rounded team for quite some time. But in this season’s MVP race, he won’t get a look in.
Bet on Jayson Tatum to win the MVP @ $501 with Unibet
Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Donovan Mitchell has much the same argument as Tatum in this race, and given his team is going to almost certainly secure top spot in the East and go close to matching the Thunder for the best record in the league, he arguably has a better case. Having said that, while his team has won a few more games, Mitchell has not individually had as good a season as his Celtics counterpart. The Cavaliers guard is averaging 24 points per game to go with 4.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists – all numbers lower than what he averaged last season.
But like Tatum, Mitchell doesn’t need to put up 30+ points per game for his team to win the vast majority of their games. He is probably their best player, but a good case can be made that Evan Mobley is getting there given his impact on both ends of the floor, while Darius Garland has also taken a huge step forward and Jarrett Allen plays a key role on this team too. Mitchell is obviously pivotally important to them and will play a massive role in their playoff run given that his capacity to take over a game is superior to anyone else on his team, but as for his MVP candidacy, he too is a long way behind the guys who will be battling it out at the top.
Bet on Donovan Mitchell to win the NBA MVP at $501.00 with Unibet
Many expected Anthony Edwards to take a significant step forward this season and become one of the game’s absolute elite, and that was evident in the MVP betting odds a few months ago when he was right up there with the favourites. But while he has arguably had the best season of his young career, his progression hasn’t been sufficient to put him right in the MVP mix, and the Timberwolves step backwards hasn’t helped either.
It’s a fascinating time to be a basketball fan, with three generational superstars defying Father Time and continuing to play a major role on their teams. LeBron is leading that charge at the ripe old age of 40, but Kevin Durant and in particular Stephen Curry aren’t all that far behind – albeit a couple of years younger. Curry, turning 37 in March, has actually suffered a dip in scoring this season, down to 24.4 per game – his lowest average in a decade.
