NBA Multi bet of the Weekend | Apr 26

Take a look at our multi for this Saturday’s action, which includes player props on both Jaylen Brown of the Celtics and Rudy Gobert of the Timberwolves.

Saturday 26th of April, 9.00am AEST, Kia Center

Jayson Tatum missed Game 2 of this series with a wrist injury and is doubtful to play in Game 3, and while that increases opportunity for a number of Celtics players, the one most likely to see a boost in production as a result of the absence of their star is Jaylen Brown. Brown has long been a reliable number two for Boston – though given he won the Finals MVP last season he could probably argue he is closer to Tatum than many view him as, and in his more highly rated co-star’s absence he is more than capable of taking the reins, just as he did in Game 2. After his team didn’t need him to do all that much in a Game 1 flogging in which he played just 30 minutes, Brown spent 42 minutes on the floor in the more competitive Game 2 and scored a game-high 36 points in that time. Granted he was very efficient from the floor in that performance, hitting 12 of his 19 shots and 5 of his 7 long-range attempts, numbers we cannot exactly bank on him repeating in Game 3. But those 19 shots are still more than what he averaged throughout the course of the season and there is good reason to think that, in Tatum’s absence, he will once again take close to 20 shots, if not more. Brown averages 22.2 points per game this season and betting sites have upped his line from that number without Tatum, but only by a little. His over/under points line is set at 24.5, but without Tatum there are plenty of extra shots and points to be spread around the team. Aiding us further is the fact that with the series heading back to Orlando, this is more likely to be a closer game and Brown should be required to play plenty of minutes as a result. This line should be more around the 26 or 27 mark, and the over looks like good value to kick off our NBA multi.

Saturday 26th of April, 10.00am AEST, Fiserv Forum

NBA betting sites have set the points total line for this game at 230.5, a number which this series went well under in Game 1, and relatively comfortably over in Game 2. But there is good reason to think that Game 2 is far more reflective of the kinds of scores that we can expect from this series. Both the Bucks and Pacers are relatively high-scoring teams, and that showed throughout the regular season series between them. Of the four games they played, three of them went over this 230.5-point total, and the only one that didn’t saw 229 points scored. The average score in those games was 238, bang on the same number that we saw in Game 2 when the Pacers won 123-115. Of course, playoffs are a different beast and teams very often play at a slower pace with opposing defences locking in, but that hasn’t really been the case in this series. Both these teams want to get out in the open floor and look to score early in the shot clock, as they did in Game 2, and Game 1 wasn’t really any different. The low score which occurred in that game was by no means a result of a slowed down game style by these two teams; rather it was primarily a result of some really bad shooting, mainly on the part of the Bucks. In that game, they hit just 9 of their 37 three-point attempts at a rate of 24.3% - for context they led the league throughout the regular season in three-point shooting at 38.7%. Had they shot anywhere near that number in Game 1, it too would have gone over this points total. There will be enough shots in this game that, if both teams shoot at around their typical level of efficiency, we will see closer to 240 points scored. Obviously there is variability in games and there is no guarantee they will shoot at their averages, but betting is about playing the percentages and in this case, this is a matchup where the projected score should be closer to 240, making the over look like a good bet.

Saturday 26th of April, 11.30am AEST, Target Center

Rudy Gobert is an interesting player. Offensively he has always been limited, making up for a lack of talent at that end of the floor by setting savvy screens and finishing efficiently the work of his smaller teammates. It’s at the other end of the floor where he makes his money, something to which four Defensive Player of the Year awards is testament. His undeniable defensive prowess can completely change the way opponents play and cause a whole lot of disruption around the paint, but for all that capability he can still look like a deer on skates when he gets sucked out to the perimeter on a switch, and that can make him vulnerable in certain matchups. This is exacerbated in the playoffs, when opposing teams have multiple games in succession against the same team and tend to look more regularly for the weakest link in the opposition defence and exploit it, and the Lakers’ myriad of ball-handlers means they have plenty of players who, if they end up with Gobert defending them on a switch, can make him pay. If Gobert is not being disruptive on defence his place on the floor can come under scrutiny, and if he’s being actively hunted then that’s even more the case, and the Lakers have shown a desire and ability to force the Timberwolves hand in that regard over the first couple of games of this series. For the season Gobert averages 33.2 minutes per game, but he played just 24 and 29 in the first two, and neither time was as a result of foul trouble. The Timberwolves are looking to play small against the versatile Lakers’ attack more often, opting often for the more offensively-minded Naz Reid to slot in at the five, and Gobert’s minutes and production have waned as a result. His points line is set at around 10.5 with most betting agencies, but in the first two games he has scored just 6 and 2 points. Given that he averages 12.0 points per game for the season, the line has been adjusted a little to cater for the fact that he is not needed as much as usual in this matchup, but his production in the first couple of games suggests that he is likely going to struggle to reach double-figures with much regularity in this series.