Saturday Racing Tips Flemington 29/03/25

The Australian Cup looks like a competitive renewal this year so although it is the feature race on the Flemington card on Saturday afternoon, we felt that there were some stronger bets in other races. We have two improvers as our best bet and next best this week with the roughie in a handicap earlier on the card. We feel that he has been a little bit overlooked on the betting sites..

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Best of the Day

Flemington Race 7 -

#6 Alabama Lass

Win: $2.80
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Place: $1.65
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Next Best

Flemington Race 9 -

#3 Deakin

Win: $2.30
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Place: $1.36
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Roughie of the Day

Flemington Race 5 -

#6 Immediacy

Win: $16.00
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Place: $3.90
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Flemington Race 5 - Curragh Handicap (1600m)

Selections:
#10 Enxuto - $3.50 (All prices taken from bet365)
#11 Hellsing - $3.60
#6 Immediacy (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $16.00
#1 Munhamek - $10.00

BEST BET - #10 Enxuto
The drop to 1400m at this track earlier in March was almost his undoing but he managed to get up just in time. He is perhaps better judged on his Sandown win prior which came over this distance of 1600m. As is his style, he came from right out the back that day and will appreciate both a bigger field and the potential for at least a slightly above average pace. He had only won two of his first 16 career starts but has now won three straight. In that current vein of form, he needs to be hugely respected in this contest.

DANGER - #11 Hellsing
Connections have had to be very patient with him since arriving from Europe. He had his first trial in December of 2023 in Australia but has only managed to race three times, missing almost 13 months from early January 2024 until February 2025. He was fourth behind Enxuto over 1400m at this track last time out, doing well late on. The rise up to 1600m here is going to be a big plus on that evidence with some progression still to come given that he has only had eight starts in his life.

VALUE BET - #6 Immediacy
Won the first three starts of his career but has not managed to get his head in front since in six runs. It was a Group 2 that he managed to win in the last of those with three of his six defeats coming in Group 1 company since. He drops back into a handicap race here. Although this is a strong level for a handicap, it is still a simpler task than he has been set of late. He stays this trip strongly so having a solid pace to chase is going to be a plus for him. Could prove to be overpriced at this level.

Flemington Race 7 - HKJC World Pool Sprint Classic (1100m)

Selections:
#6 Alabama Lass (BEST BET) - $2.80
#15 Vestas - $8.00
#1 First Settler - $10.00
#16 Rich Dottie - $17.00

BEST BET - #6 Alabama Lass
Very smart performer in New Zealand, she gets the chance to show her talents off in Australia now. She was just run down by an older rival two starts back over 1200m in a Group 1 before absolutely hammering her opposition last time out. She has won five of her eight career races so far, finishing second in the other three. The drop back to 1100m should suit on a stiffer, straight track and there should still be some natural improvement to come from her given how few miles she has on the clock.

DANGER - #15 Vestas
Is drawn on completely the other side of the track to our best bet of the day so it will be interesting to see what Jamie Melham wants to do from her barrier close to the stands side rail. She was a close second in the Group 3 Red Roses at this track on just her second career start back in November. That is over the same 1100m of this contest so we know it suits her. She has only been seen once since, when perhaps a little below the level that was expected of her. In hindsight, the winner Private Harry has won a Group 1 since and the runner-up Lady Of Camelot has been placed in a pair of Group 1s so it is probably a better run than it looked at the time.

VALUE BET - #1 First Settler
Found the Group 1 Coolmore a little too hot in November but was far from disgraced as it was only his fifth career start. Has not been seen since so there might have been some excuses, especially when compared to his Group 2 winning form at this track the time before in the Danehill. That success came on soft ground so perhaps he will prove to be ideally suited to a little more cut in the ground than he is going to get here but he should not be dismissed out of hand because of one run.

Flemington Race 9 - Lexus Roy Higgins (2600m)

Selections:
#3 Deakin (NEXT BEST) - $2.30
#9 Berkshire Breeze - $7.00
#6 Mostly Cloudy - $9.00
#10 Newfoundland - $12.00

BEST BET - #3 Deakin
Appreciated being given a test of stamina when trained in Ireland so it was not a surprise to see that he produced a much stronger effort when given 2500m to race over at Moonee Valley last time out. Is up another 100m here on a more galloping track but the way that he hit the line on that occasion suggests that he is going to relish it. Tends to be ridden close to the speed so Daniel Stackhouse should be set to track Silent Surrente who is the most likely of his rivals to set the pace to the race. That rival set a steady gallop when winning the Adelaide Cup last time out which can see the selection in pole position to strike late on.

DANGER - #9 Berkshire Breeze
Was a very progressive type last autumn and winter, including at Flemington. He absolutely skated up in the final of the Banjo Paterson series which came over this same track and distance last July. He ran almost five lengths clear of his rivals that day so if the step back up to this distance proves to be what he needs to improve on his recent form, then he is clearly a big threat. He has failed to salute in six subsequent starts which is a little bit of a concern but he has enough upside to give him plenty of respect.

VALUE BET - #6 Mostly Cloudy
Has not been helped by the pace turning from a crawl into a sprint in his last two starts. He did well to run the winner to less than a length at Caulfield last time out over 2400m and is sure to appreciate the extra 200m on offer here. Good ground suits him well, beaten by Berkshire Breeze a couple of times in the early part of this season when the surface was against him. Is going to appreciate the underfoot conditions here and the more of a stamina test this becomes, the better his chances are going to be.

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