Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington 15/02/25

A lot of the favourites on the betting sites this weekend at Flemington are decent odds which is indicative of how competitive the racing is. Two Group 3 races and three Listed contests are on the undercard. The Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes is the big race of the day, a 1000m dash up the straight which is a strong renewal on paper and well worth the entrance fee alone.

(Note: Odds provided by PlayUp)

Selections:
#3 Fancify (NEXT BEST) - $3.40
#4 Miraval Rose - $6.00
#2 Plenty Of Ammo - $5.00
#5 Wrote To Arataki - $9.50

BEST BET - #3 Fancify - (BEST BET)
It was a touch disappointing that she was brushed aside so easily in the Bellmaine last time out. Perhaps she ran into a deeply progressive one that day who will show the form to be strong. Maybe she went a touch too hard on the front end. Whatever way it is sliced, she is capable of a stronger level of form than that, winning the only other time that she has raced in Group 3 company. Back up to 1400m should suit, winning four of her five starts over this distance, including both runs over that distance at this track.

THE DANGER - #4 Miraval Rose
Another who was below her level of form in the Bellmaine is capable of leaving that form well behind her. She saluted in the Listed Kensington Stakes the last time that she raced over this track and distance in early January. The return here might suit better than Sandown did last time out. Her general level of form suggests that she is well up to playing a leading role in this race with conditions of no concern for her.

VALUE BET - #2 Plenty Of Ammo
Very lightly campaigned for her age, winning five of her eight career starts. She has won first-up in the past but she does tend to improve a little for her return to work so whatever she does here, she is going to step up on next time out. Last seen in the Group 1 Empire Rose, she did not have things fall her way in that contest. That was off a seven-day turnaround after a Group 2 win in the Crystal Mile at The Valley the time before. She is far better judged on that level of form which should see her placed here, even though she is fresh.

Selections:
#10 Growing Empire - $3.80
#11 Switzerland - $2.70
#2 Mornington Glory (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $31.00
#6 I Am Me - $6.00

BEST BET - #10 Growing Empire - (BEST BET)
Was at the end of a long prep when behind Switzerland in the Coolmore. He was more than three lengths in arrears of that re-opposing rival on that occasion but he is perhaps the more straightforward of the pair when they are first-up. He started his spring prep back in August with a Group 3 win before landing a Listed race at this track. Places in the Manikato and Everest show the quality that he is capable of running to at his peak. Yet to finish outside the first three in his eight career starts, he is a top-notch performer.

THE DANGER - #11 Switzerland
Lost his head first-up in his last prep, throwing away any chance with his antics. He has been given some help to calm him down in subsequent races which has worked, taking his form to a new level when winning the Coolmore Stakes over 1200m here in November. Like Growing Empire, he has potential for better to come, the winner of five of his seven career starts. 1000m is not perfect for either of them on their return but the weight they receive from their elders is a big help.

VALUE BET - #2 Mornington Glory
There are other more talented types in this lineup and those who are less exposed than he is, like the pair above. That said, the big advantage that he has over all of the others in this field is that he is the 1000m specialist. The classier types are 1200m performers who can cope with the drop in trip first-up even though it is not ideal but this gelding is a hard and fast 1000m speedball. In fact, he has never been beaten over this distance, a perfect 5/5. While first-up is not always the right time to catch him, it would be no surprise if he completely outruns his price.

Selections:
#2 Captured By Love (BEST BET) - $5.00
#1 Another Prophet - $8.00
#3 Too Darn Discreet - $11.00
#4 Sneaky Sunrise - $6.00

BEST BET - #2 Captured By Love - (BEST BET)
Hard to know just how good she might be on her New Zealand form but she more than held her own in Group 1 company there. She saluted in the New Zealand 1000 Guineas at Riccarton back in November, one of two who have won at the highest level in the field. Capable on any going, she won that on a Soft 7, but she is yet to miss out on a place when she has raced on good. On official ratings, there are only two possible winners in this contest and she is one of them!

THE DANGER - #1 Another Prophet
Has kept warm company so far in her career, winning the Group 1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield in her last prep. Her return to action over 1200m in the Manfred at Sandown last time out was over a trip that is on the short side but she kept rolling after being a touch short of room at a key stage. Given that she is yet to find the places in three first-up runs, it was a smart way to start off her autumn campaign. A drop into Listed grade and a rise back up in distance are both going to be a plus for her chances here.

VALUE BET - #3 Too Darn Discreet
Has done the majority of her racing in recent times over a longer distance than this. She tried as far as 2500m in the VRC Oaks on the final start of her spring prep. 1600m at this track saw her win The Manifold, albeit on slower ground than she is going to encounter on Saturday. She followed that up with a 2000m win in the Ethereal at Caulfield. On that occasion, she sat closer to the speed than is often the case, something that is liable to be a good tactic here, down to 1400m on her first start of this prep.

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The nature of the racing at Flemington this weekend makes it hard to find any one hoop with outstanding chances on the card. One that has a lot of place shouts is Ethan Brown who is well on track for the best season of his career. There are plenty in with a place chance with the horse racing bookmakers and that could be the play for anyone wanting to get involved.

R1 - #6 - Kings Valley - $6.00
R3 - #7 - Flying Fizz - $13.00
R4 - #6 - Verdad - $4.20
R5 - #4 - Veloce Carro - $5.50
R7 - #4 - Opening Address - $19.00
R8 - #2 - Mornington Glory - $31.00
R9 - #1 - Another Prophet - $8.00
R10 - #5 - Lounge Bar Rubi - $34.00

It is a tricky card at Flemington on Saturday with some deeply competitive racing. Winners will be well earned so a place multi could well be the way to go. If we can find a way to get the middle leg placed then, hopefully, we are going to be in a strong spot.

R3 - #3 - Fancify - PLC $1.40
R8 - #2 - Mornington Glory - PLC $5.50
R9 - #2 - Captured By Love - PLC $2.00

Total Odds = $15.40
$50 Stake = $770.00 Return!

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Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8)

1st: 2, 6, 10, 11

2nd: 2, 6, 10, 11

3rd: 2, 6, 10, 11

$50 stake = 208% flexi