Saturday Racing Tips - Randwick 05/04/25

The Doncaster Mile is always one of the biggest contests of the year for the betting sites. With a field of 20 runners over 1600m and soft ground to contend with, it is a race that has the potential for a surprise result. That is the way that we are looking at it, putting up a roughie who ran one of the top races of his career in the very same contest in 2024.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#1 Desert Hero (NEXT BEST) - $6.00
#3 Alalcance - $2.80
#12 Birdman - $9.00
#2 Athabascan - $10.00

BEST BET - #1 Desert Hero
Was not at his best last year in Europe after a smart return to action over a distance that was too short for him. Underfoot conditions were probably a little too quick for him on his other two starts, something that is not going to be the case here. Has no problems when fresh and any horse who is sent to Australia to represent the William Haggas team needs to be given a huge amount of respect. He will have to give weight away to every one of his rivals here but despite that, a rating of 107 might just underestimate the level of ability he has if he can find his European best.

DANGER - #3 Alalcance
Has shown some very strong form, finishing first or second in eight of her nine career starts. Two of her defeats have come when third-up as she is here which has to sound a slight note of caution, especially in a contest that has plenty of smart types against her. It is easy to think that there is still going to be better to come from her as she steps up in distance. Deeply impressive over 2400m at Rosehill last time out and a repeat of that would put her right in the mix at the end of this contest.

VALUE BET - #12 Birdman
Well behind Alalcance last time out at Rosehill but that was surely not his true running. Is capable of better and he now gets blinkers for the first time so it looks like his connections were not happy with the effort that he put in. Perhaps the ground would have been as quick as he would have liked. His record when the ground is good is 0/6 but his record when he has raced on a soft surface is a perfect 2/2. This might well be the softest that he has ever encountered which asks another question of him but there is plenty in his form to think that he should be well up to getting involved at the business end.

Selections:
#20 Linebacker - $6.00
#3 Tom Kitten - $7.50
#5 Pericles (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $29.00
#2 Gringotts - $7.00

BEST BET - #20 Linebacker
Sneaks in off a lightweight at the bottom of the handicap. Unless the EM2 gets in, he is the sole three-year-old in the contest. Celestial Legend won this race last year for the same generation, taking advantage of the weight given to him. Linebacker saluted over track and distance last time out in the Randwick Guineas, kicking at the perfect time to hold off Broadsiding. The Godolphin colt franked the form winning the Rosehill Guineas since and was third in the Cox Plate back in the spring. Brings very strong form to the table.

DANGER - #3 Tom Kitten
Won the Group 1 All-Star Mile at Flemington in early March, beating Mr Brightside who was the winner of this race in both 2022 and 2023. He was behind a couple of these last time out in the George Ryder but that contest did not map out well for him. Out the back early, there was no way into the race for those who had been held up. This is a race which should be run at a proper gallop over this distance which is going to be much more suitable for him.

VALUE BET - #5 Pericles
Runner-up in this race last season, the ground has come right for him again. He tends to be just off the speed and that should give him the perfect tow into the race once more here. Perhaps it would have been more helpful if he was in a slightly lower barrier but there should be plenty of options for Blake Shinn to move to where he wants to be in the early stages. Goes well on all grounds but it was heavy in this race that suited him so well last year. His connections will be hoping that conditions do not dry up too much as the weekend nears.

Selections:
#1 Clean Energy (BEST BET) - $2.70
#3 Lilac - $5.00
#4 She’s Got Pizzazz - $10.00
#2 Zeitung - $6.50

BEST BET - #1 Clean Energy
Her only defeat so far in four career starts came when she ran on good ground. Even though the weather is dry for the rest of the week, there should still be enough juice for her in the ground come the weekend. She did well to win at The Valley last time out given that she was held up at the back of the field. That is rarely the place to be around there so to win a Group 3 like she did marks her down as smart. Has a more conventional track here at the same level and should be capable of adding to her success.

DANGER - #3 Lilac
Put the pace to the race in the Group 1 Surround Stakes last time out where she finished fourth. She was behind the first two from that race the time before as well, the Lightfinger over this track and distance. She has a solid starting position in barrier four to get herself as close to the front as connections want her to be, dropping back to 1200m. She saluted the only time that she has been seen on soft ground so far in her career which can stand her in good stead here. Should be right in the mix.

VALUE BET - #4 She’s Got Pizzazz
Was an impressive winner of the Listed Twilight Glow at Caulfield back in November. That win came on a Soft 7 surface so these conditions should be fine for her. The slight concern about her chance stems from the fact that her win that day came over 1400m, hitting the line strongly. She showed enough speed to not be disgraced over 1000m on the first run of this prep, improving on that over this same 1200m last time out at Caulfield. A true test at the distance would be a big help to her.

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There could be a strong start to the afternoon for Tim Clark at Randwick. He has the ride on the horse that heads the market with the horse racing bookmakers in each of the first three races on the day. Things become tougher with roughies later on the card but he should have a winner or two in the bag by that point.

R1 - #1 - North England - $3.40
R2 - #1 - Dominetta - $4.60
R3 - #3 - Alalcance - $2.80
R4 - #5 - Shangri La Spring - $9.00
R5 - #9 - Lisztomania - $12.00
R6 - #10 - Bellazaine - $10.00
R7 - #9 - I Am Me - $34.00
R8 - #7 - Royal Patronage - $10.00
R9 - #21 - Format - $101.00

Bigger odds this week thanks to the price of the roughie as the middle leg of the multi tip. He was a close second in the race last year when the ground was deep so things have come right for him once more.

R3 - #1 - Desert Hero - PLC $2.30
R8 - #5 - Pericles - PLC $8.00
R9 - #1 - Clean Energy - PLC $1.50

Total Odds = 27.60
$50 stake = $1,380.00 return!

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Randwick Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R10)

1st: 1, 2, 3, 4
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 4
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 4

$50 stake = 208% flexi