Saturday Racing Tips Flemington 01/03/25

It’s Australian Guineas Day at Flemington on Saturday, a race that should produce plenty of buzz on the betting sites. The Group 1 race is the clear feature on the card but there are some interesting supporting races as well. The Inglis Sprint is one of those races where we have found a roughie that could surprise given the way that the race will be run.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Best of the Day

Flemington Race 2

- #2 Revelare

Win: $2.40
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Place: $1.50
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Next Best

Flemington Race 8

- #12 Sepals

Win: $6.00
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Place: $2.40
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Roughie of the Day

Flemington Race 9

- #14 Winning Proposal

Win: $34.00
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Place: $8.50
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Flemington Race 2 - Racing and Sports 2000 (2000m)

Selections:
#2 Revelare (BEST BET) - $2.40
#10 Steel Run - $10.00
#14 Bur Dubai - $11.00
#16 Shiny New Deel - $9.00

BEST BET - #2 Revelare - (BEST BET)
There are few horses in Australia who are improving at the same rate as this gelding. He has four wins on the spin, including when stepped up to this trip last time out at this same track. Things did not fall right for him that day but he still had the class to find a way through after his run was blocked. He has won off a fast pace and off a slow gallop when tracking the speed and from further back in the field. There seems to be little that phases him and this will not take much more improvement to get his head in front once more.

THE DANGER - #10 Steel Run
Was an impressive winner at this track over 2500m the last time that he was seen in race action. That was back in July so he has a long absence to overcome. He won on his race debut so there is no doubt that he is capable when he is fresh and the early moves in the market have suggested that he is going to be ready to go. Good ground is his preferred surface and the fact that he has saluted at this track in the past is no bad thing for his chance here. Has done his best work off a strong pace so connections will be hoping that this big field tows him along.

VALUE BET - #14 Bur Dubai
A smart horse when trained in the UK, ripping a fair field to shreds at Chester on his final start there. He went from the front on that occasion over 2500m but was held up in the back marker position in a seven-runner field on his Australian debut over 1600m at Caulfield. That was never going to suit him but he was only beaten three and a half lengths in total. The additional 400m is going to be a plus for him, though further again is going to see him in a better light. Can show more here and given he has won at Chester, a trip to Moonee Valley could be what he needs to win.

Flemington Race 8 - Howden Australian Guineas (1600m)

Selections:
#12 Sepals (NEXT BEST) - $6.00
#4 Angel Capital - $4.00
#7 Point And Shoot - $5.50
#10 Ndola - $17.00

BEST BET - #12 Sepals - (NEXT BEST)
Things went perfectly for him when he saluted in the CS Hayes at this track last time out. This is a longer trip but that should be no issue for him, nor the fact that he is back on a sounder surface. Visually, that was a dominant display for him. It did fall his way but it was his third win in a row so is clearly an improving type. He has only had four starts in his career coming into this so there should be plenty more to come from him. A win on this track already is a plus.

THE DANGER - #4 Angel Capital
Won the Guineas Prelude back in September but followed that up with a disappointing display in the Caulfield Guineas itself. Showed that to not be his true form on the first start of his autumn prep, once more over 1400m at Caulfield. There was not a lot of pace in the Autumn Stakes so the fact that he came from toward the rear of the field to win that day is a run to mark up. That turn of foot is a serious weapon if he can show it back over this longer distance.

VALUE BET - #7 Point And Shoot
Disappointed on soft ground at Wyong three starts back but he has lived up to his name in a pair of Randwick handicaps since. They were only Bm72 and Bm78 class handicaps so he is given a much tougher task by his connections here. That said, the impression that he gave in those two wins is that he is capable of holding his own in company which is much deeper. Had some solid yardsticks for the grade behind him last time out which helps to set the standard. No surprise if he proved up to the jump in grade.

Flemington Race 9 - Inglis Sprint (1200m)

Selections:
#7 Reserve Bank - $5.00
#11 Certain Rise - $9.00
#14 Winning Proposal (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $34.00
#2 Gatsby’s - $5.00

BEST BET - #7 Reserve Bank
Plenty of early speed in the higher barrier numbers here with this colt set to track that through early on. He was below par in the final run of his spring prep but that was his first run on heavy ground. It is probably wise to judge him more on his prior run over this track and distance in the Danehill. He was just touched off in that Group 2 contest and is a perfect 2/2 when he is having his first start of a prep like he is here.

THE DANGER - #11 Certain Rise
A Listed winner over this distance in the spring, she returned with a solid effort in a Group 3. Both of her first-up starts have seen her beaten so she is entitled to come on plenty for that return. She has won her other two starts with all four of her career efforts coming on good ground so these conditions are ideal. Only one of her rivals here has had fewer runs so there should be better to come from her as she gains more experience. The return to 1200m should be a plus for her.

VALUE BET - #14 Winning Proposal
Has been given some tough tasks so far in her career. She was beaten less than a length and a half in a Group 2 on the only occasion that she has raced over 1200m Both of her starts this prep have been a little bit disappointing in races that she should have done better in than she did. A chance is taken that she is going to be one of those types who needs the quality and pace around her to bring out her best. That is certainly going to be the case here with lots of speed drawn around her to tow her into the race.

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Jockey Of The Day – Damian Lane

The odds with the horse racing bookmakers show that it is a very competitive card at Flemington on Saturday. Damian Lane has a string of rides at single-figure odds to give him the strongest book on the afternoon. Plenty of these have at least a place chance so expect to see Lane in the frame most of the day.

R2 - #4 - Wineglass Bay - $34.00
R3 - #4 - Band Of Brothers - $5.00
R4 - #5 - Elouyou - $4.80
R5 - #10 - Escarpa - $13.00
R6 - #11 - Enxuto - $3.60
R8 - #7 - Point And Shoot - $5.50
R9 - #2 - Gatsby’s - $5.00
R10 - #5 - Aramco - $5.50