ATP Finals draw puts Sinner and Alcaraz in separate groups

The ATP Finals groups have been announced for the year-end championship beginning this Sunday in Turin. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have been drawn in separate groups, while Australia’s Alex de Minaur has received a window of opportunity to make the last four. We look at the implications of each group, and what betting sites have to say about it.

Sinner headlines Ilie Nastase Group

The Ilie Nastase Group is as follows:

• Jannik Sinner (1)
• Daniil Medvedev (4)
• Taylor Fritz (5)
• Alex de Minaur (7)

Online betting sites have Sinner as the strong favourite to top the Nastase Group, with the 23-year-old at odds of just 1.50 at Bet365 to finish in top spot. The Italian made the final here last year, falling only to an inspired performance by Novak Djokovic. Since then, just two players have defeated him on hardcourts – Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev, neither of whom are in his group.

Who moves through in the other spot from the Nastase Group is the big question. Daniil Medvedev is the incumbent due to his hardcourt record, but the Russian has been down on form the past three months. Both Taylor Fritz and De Minaur will fancy their chances, with moderate odds of 7.00 and 10.00 for the pair to finish top.

Alcaraz and Zverev together in John Newcombe Group

The John Newcombe Group is as follows:

• Alexander Zverev (1)
• Carlos Alcaraz (3)
• Andrey Rublev (6)
• Casper Ruud (8)

The battle for first place in the Newcombe Group is much tighter. Four-time Grand Slam champion Alcaraz leads with odds of 1.66, but recent Paris Masters champion Alexander Zverev is not far behind on 3.00. Expect a hot battle from the pair for first place, especially considering their head-to-head currently sits at 5-5.

Rublev and Casper Ruud are long shots to make it past the group stage in Turin, courtesy of Zverev and Alcaraz. The pair pay 6.50 and 17.00 respectively across Australian betting sites, and it would be a major upset if either progressed.

De Minaur eyeing strong debut

Heading into 2024, Aussie De Minaur set a goal of making the ATP Finals. Despite a hip injury that saw him miss the majority of the North American hardcourt swing, the 25-year-old has achieved his goal. Now, he has his sights set higher, and know he will need a fast start against world No 1 Sinner in his opening match.

“It is not rocket science but you have to be ready from the word go. It doesn’t get any harder than starting against Jannik,” said De Minaur, who is yet to beat Sinner in seven attempts.

“From the very start, I need to be ready, I need to compete. It is going to be a great experience. A great challenge. But this is where I have wanted to be all these years.”

While De Minaur may struggle to overcome Sinner – Bet365 has him at 6.00 to win – the Australian still has a strong chance of qualifying second in his group. He has defeated both Fritz and Medvedev this year, and is playing some of his best tennis this year.