AFL 2025 Least Wins Wooden Spoon Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

Last season’s race for the Wooden Spoon was a battle in two, with the Kangaroos and Tigers anchoring themselves to the bottom of the ladder early on and staying there. It was the Tigers who ultimately ‘won’ that race, winning just two games in Adem Yze’s first season as coach, and they entered the season strongly favoured to do so yet again. A shock win over the Blues in Round 1 changed things a little, but at the time of writing they remain the relatively comfortable favourite to end the season with the least wins, with the Eagles a long way ahead of the rest in second. Below, we take a look at the chances of the top eight teams in the betting for this market.

Updated: 26d March 2025

The Tigers were never meant to be good this season. In fact, they were meant to be pretty bad. After a dramatic fall from grace last season, sped up by a horrible run with injury, they saw a mass exodus of Premiership players who have been replaced by a raft of talented rookies. But while that group of first-year players looks set to hold them in good stead in the future, this is an incredibly young team that will likely struggle to hold its own against most teams.

As a result they entered the season as the heavy favourite to finish on the bottom of the ladder with all Australian betting sites, and 41 points down to the Blues in the second quarter of their opening game of the season was about where most expected them to find themselves. Incredibly, they subsequently won that game. That was perhaps as much an indictment on the Blues as anything else, but nonetheless it was a huge surprise. But of course, that doesn’t change the fact that the Tigers will likely struggle immensely this season, and that showed the next week against Port Adelaide. However, three or four wins may be enough to keep a team off the bottom, and the Tiges already have one of them. There is a good chance they’re the worst team in the league this season, but with an early leg-up on other teams in this market – namely the Eagles – I wouldn’t be backing them at such short odds..

• What brings them here? After three Premierships in four years, the Tigers have seen a mass exodus via retirement and trades over the past couple of years.
  
• What has changed? Plenty. Shai Bolton, Liam Baker, Daniel Rioli and Jack Graham were traded, while the great Dustin Martin retired alongside Dylan Grimes and Marlion Pickett. Coming in is a plethora of high draft picks; Sam Lalor, Josh Smillie, Taj Hotton, Jonty Faull, Harry Armstrong and Luke Trainor to name a few.
  
• Injury report. Richmond’s quintet of players recovering from ACL injuries – Judson Clarke, Josh Gibcus, Mykelti Lefau, Taj Hotton and Tylar Young – remain without timelines from the club, while Dion Prestia is expected to be back from a hamstring in mid-late April. Maurice Rioli Jr and Josh Smillie are pushing to be available for around early April.

Bet on the Tigers to finish with the least wins @ $1.65 with PlayUp

The Eagles have been a basket case over the past couple of years, and new coach Andrew McQualter has inherited a very difficult task to haul this proud club back up the ladder. More than likely, that won’t be happening anytime particularly soon, and their rough start to the season made for more grim viewing for West Coast fans. On their home deck, they were made a mockery of by the Suns, ultimately losing by 87 points to start their season in much the same vein of the past couple. 

Fortunately, however, they were far, far better the next week. Heading to Brisbane to take on the reigning Premiers spelled danger, but they were very competitive and only ended up losing by three goals. Still, this is a piecemeal list with a few old players on their last legs and a number of youngsters whose futures at this level are still far from assured. The Eagles did show some improvement last season, but it’s hard to imagine them being better than any team except Richmond, and having fallen a game behind early they look like the value bet at $3.

• What brings them here? After winning the 2019 flag, the Eagles tumbled rapidly down the ladder in the ensuing years and haven’t been able to get off the bottom of it for some time.
  
• What has changed? Andrew Gaff retired, while Jack Darling and Luke Barrass were both traded. Liam Baker and Jack Graham come across from the Tigers, while Matt Owies was traded in from Carlton.
  
• Injury report. Dom Sheed is out for the season with an ACL injury, while Elliott Yeo isn’t due back til late April/early May. New recruit Jack Graham is nearing a return from a hip injury.

Bet on the Eagles to finish with the least wins @ $3.00 with PlayUp

This should really be a long-awaited year of improvement for the Kangaroos, and the early signs have been promising. A gallant defeat in Round 1 against the Bulldogs was followed up by perhaps their best win in decades, as they pummelled the Demons from pillar to post en route to a 59-point win. Their raft of young talent appears to have taken another step forward, while the injection of experience in Luke Parker, Jack Darling and Caleb Daniel looks to have helped too.

The Kangaroos have not won more than four games since 2019, but they would be massively disappointed if they fail to surpass that number this year. At long last, there is reason for optimism at Arden Street, and while they will probably have their disappointing moments this year, a Wooden Spoon should not be even close to on the cards for them. Expect them to be looking at six wins as a minimum in 2025, and I won’t be touching them as a Wooden Spoon prospect.

• What brings them here? The Kangaroos have finished in the bottom two every year since 2020, but look to be on the up at long last.
  
• What has changed? Hugh Greenwood, Liam Shiels and Jaidyn Stephenson retired, while experienced trio Caleb Daniel, Luke Parker and Jack Darling were all traded in.
  
• Injury report. Callum Coleman-Jones is due back around mid-season from an Achilles injury, while George Wardlaw is looking at a mid-April return. Jackson Archer is suspended until Round 5.

Bet on the Kangaroos to finish with the least wins @ $10.00 with PlayUp

The first couple of weeks of the season provided a grim reality check for the Bombers. Their prospects with this list in its current state were never particularly high, but they have been around the top eight the last couple of years and as a best-case would have been hoping for more of the same this season. But the competitive landscape of the AFL at the moment and this team’s host of not-that-bad but not-that-good players has left them stranded in no-man’s land.

They lost their first game of the season by 26 points to the Hawks and their second by 61 to the Crows, and after the latter the media latched onto Brad Scott like a newborn lamb to its mother’s teat. Are they rebuilding, are they turning over their list – call it whatever you like, they’re simply not that good. Having said that, the Bombers should realistically be better than the Tiges and Eagles, but it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see them really struggle if the early stages of the season continue to go awry. They are better than a Wooden Spoon team, but with few genuine contenders in this market, they are a decent outsider.

• What brings them here? The Bombers have not won more than 12 games since 2013, and the reality that they need a list overhaul appears to have become increasingly clear.
  
• What has changed? Former captain Dyson Heppell has retired as has Jake Kelly, while Jake Stringer was traded to GWS.
  
• Injury report. A bit going on here. Matt Guelfi isn’t due back till May from a hamstring, and Kyle Langford a couple of weeks before that. Peter Wright is tracking for a mid-April return, Elijah Tsatas and Archie Perkins early-mid April, while Nik Cox remains TBC with concussion issues, and Darcy Parish and Jayden Leverde are pushing for late March/early April returns.

Bet on the Bombers to finish with the least wins @ $16.00 with PlayUp

After their performance in Round 1, concerns around the Saints were not dissimilar to those surrounding the Bombers. But they responded emphatically the next week to beat the Cats, and while they are not exactly Premiership contenders, that performance did at least demonstrate that they are not about to fall off a cliff just yet. Of course, a week is a long time in football and they could just as easily be right back in the media firing line with another bad performance, but even if they are probably a little way down the list in terms of teams likely to squeeze into the top eight, they should be winning more than enough games to avoid the bottom rungs of the ladder.

The Saints have long had issues with a lack of pace and skill, particularly in the midfield, and while that remains a weakness they have slowly accumulated a little more X-factor around the ground in players like Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Mason Cox, to name just a couple. Like the Bombers, they aren’t swimming in A-grade talent, but they probably have a little more to like about them than their counterparts in Windy Hill and should be winning close to 10 or more games – likely a hell of a lot more than the bottom couple of sides.

• What brings them here? The Saints have been stuck in AFL purgatory for years, and might remain there this year.
  
• What has changed? Josh Battle went to the Hawks as a free agent, while Brad Crouch retired. Jack Macrae was traded across from the Bulldogs.
  
• Injury report. Mattaes Phillipou and Dougal Howard will miss the first couple of months of the season, while each of Dan Butler, Max King and Liam Stocker should return in early-mid April.

Bet on the Saints to finish with the least wins @ $34.00 with PlayUp

The Demons suffered a pretty substantial fall from grace last season, and if they were to finish all the way on the bottom of the ladder this year it would be one of the most stunning tumbles in a long while. That is, of course, incredibly unlikely, even if the Demons did not start the season as they would have liked. They were actually quite good in Round 1, just going down to the Giants, but their ten-goal defeat to the Kangaroos the next week was concerning to say the least.

But still, while this list is aging, there remains plenty of talent on it. A bit of continuity could see their midfield of Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney return to one of the best in the competition, they still have a couple of elite players and while their forward line is not ideally structured, the likes of Bayley Fritsch and Kysaiah Pickett are very good. Whether the Demons can turn things around and return to the finals this year remains to be seen, but they won’t be finishing last.

• What brings them here? Some off-season tumult and an aging list resulted in a disappointing 2024 for the Dees.
  
• What has changed? Ben Brown and Lachie Hunter retired, while Alex Neal-Bullen was traded. Harry Sharp comes in from Brisbane and Tom Campbell as a free agent.
  
• Injury report. Shane McAdam is out for the season with an Achilles injury and Andy Moniz-Wakefield with a knee. A bunch of players, including Caleb Windsor, Koltyn Tholstrup and Jake Melksham, should be available in early-ish April, while Kozzy Pickett’s suspension ends in Round 4.

Bet on the Demons to finish with the least wins @ $34.00 with PlayUp

Now we are really reaching. The Blues have been hovering around Premiership contention for a few years now courtesy of their elite top-end talent, but the rapid drop-off outside their top seven or so has really held them back. Still, they entered this season as one of many teams with very lofty ambitions, but losing to the Tigers after leading by 41 points in the second quarter of their Round 1 clash brought the spotlight straight onto them.

Rightly so, too. That was a woeful performance, and while they were far better against the Hawks the next week, they still fell to 0-2. In such a competitive league a slow start can quickly become fatal to a team’s finals hopes, and if the Blues don’t turn things around soon their season could quickly spiral out of control. But this is a team with top four ambition. They may fall short of that, potentially well short the way things have started, but if they are anywhere near the likes of the Tigers and Eagles it would be a massive shock.

• What brings them here? Their first round loss to the Tigers, really. The Blues aren’t a legitimate Wooden Spoon contender, but that was a disastrous performance.
  
• What has changed? Carlton traded Matt Kennedy and Matt Owies in the off-season, while their only pick-up outside of draftees and rookies was Nick Haynes.
  
• Injury report. Nic Newman will likely miss the season with a knee injury, as will first round draft pick Jagga Smith. Alex Cincotta is due back in late-April at best, and Marc Pittonet and Orazio Fantasia a little before that.

Bet on the Blues to finish with the least wins @ $101.00 with PlayUp

The Bulldogs find themselves in eighth spot with AFL betting sites in the Wooden Spoon market, but more than anything that is testament to the quality of the league. This side is much more likely to win the flag than it is to finish last, and last year was one of the best teams in the league after the first couple of months of the season. They remain a little hard to trust and have had some off-field drama to deal with, while a really bad injury list also hasn’t helped their cause in the early stages.

Nonetheless, they started the season with a win over the improved Kangaroos, before going down in a very high-quality game to the Magpies by just six points. At their best, the Bulldogs are a very capable team, and could easily throw their hat in the ring as a contender with a clean bill of health. Equally they could miss the top eight, such is the plethora of finals-levels teams in the AFL, but I wouldn’t touch them in this market even if they were paying $1,000.

• What brings them here? Nothing really – the Dogs are a good team that should be challenging for the top eight, if not the top four.
  
• What has changed? The Bulldogs traded some good players in Caleb Daniel, Bailey Smith and Jack Macrae, while Matt Kennedy came in from Carlton.
  
• Injury report. Captain Marcus Bontempelli will remain out until at least mid-April with a calf injury, while Jason Johannisen and Adam Treloar are on a similar timeline. Cody Weightman is out indefinitely with a knee, and Riley Garcia until at least May.

Bet on the Bulldogs to finish with the least wins @ $251.00 with PlayUp

There are very few teams with a realistic chance of finishing bottom this year, and more than likely the Tigers and Eagles will be occupying spots 17 and 18 on the ladder. The Bombers are perhaps the one superior team who could feasibly end up falling in a heap, and if you’re after a long-shot outsider on the betting apps they might be the way to go. The Tigers should be the worst team based on their list profile, but that early season win against the Blues could prove telling if the Eagles really struggle, and I’d be avoiding them at such short odds so early in the year with a win already in the books. Which leaves, of course, the Eagles. They had a nice period in the middle of last year but there are still plenty of concerns with their list, and with a new coach trying to find his feet with minimal personnel, they will likely struggle again. At $3 with most betting sites, they look like the way to go.

Wooden Spoon teams that failed to win a match

• Thirteen wooden spoon teams failed to win a match during a VFL/AFL season, the most recent being Fitzroy in 1964.

Most Wooden Spoons Won

• 27 – St Kilda Saints, most recently in 2014.

Least Wooden Spoons Won

• Only the Port Adelaide Power have never won the Wooden Spoon. Ironically, the 21st century’s least successful club, the Carlton Blues, has won all 5 of their Wooden Spoons since 2002.

Most ‘successful’ Wooden Spoon team

• The 1976 Collingwood Magpies hold the record for the most wins by a wooden spoon team in a season with six wins.

AFL/AFLW Wooden Spoon ‘Double’

• Carlton are the only team to have both men’s and women’s teams win the wooden spoon in the same season, occurring in 2018.