AFL 2025 Least Wins Wooden Spoon Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

Last season’s race for the Wooden Spoon was a battle in two, with the Kangaroos and Tigers anchoring themselves to the bottom of the ladder early on and staying there. It was the Tigers who ultimately ‘won’ that race, winning just two games in Adem Yze’s first season as coach, and they are strongly favoured to do so yet again. The Roos are expected to show some improvement but remain right in the hunt for bottom spot according to AFL betting sites, while fellow cellar-dweller from the past few years, the Eagles, join them as the clear top three. But it’s a long season and it’s far from out of the realms of possibility that injuries or poor form will put at least another team or two in the mix, so let’s take a look at the chances of the top eight teams in the betting for this market.

Updated: 23rd February 2025

Adem Yze could hardly have had a more tumultuous introduction to life as a head coach. Taking over at a club that has become very accustomed to success in recent years, he inherited a list on the way down and to make things substantially harder, was confronted with an impossible injury list. The Tiges managed just two wins all season, both of them by narrow margins, and saw a mass exodus of former Premiership players once it finished – including Dustin Martin.

But the trade-off may well prove worth it. In trading Daniel Rioli, Shai Bolton and Liam Baker, they landed an incredible draft haul and the early signs are that they have used it well. They are now potentially very well set up for the future before Tasmania comes in and nicks everyone’s draft picks. As for this year, however, the departure of those experienced players makes their list, at least for the time being, even thinner than last year. In their favour is that they surely won’t have as dreadful a run with injuries as they did in 2024, but even so, they were not good then and may well be worse this year, and it's hard to see them winning more than three or four games.

• What brings them here? After three Premierships in four years, the Tigers have seen a mass exodus via retirement and trades over the past couple of years.
  
• What has changed? Plenty. Shai Bolton, Liam Baker, Daniel Rioli and Jack Graham were traded, while the great Dustin Martin retired alongside Dylan Grimes and Marlion Pickett. Coming in is a plethora of high draft picks; Sam Lalor, Josh Smillie, Taj Hotton, Jonty Faull, Harry Armstrong and Luke Trainor to name a few.
  
• Injury report. The list is still long, but it’s shorter than last year. ACL quartet Judson Clarke, Josh Gibcus, Mykelti Lefau and Tylar Young are due back at various points in the first half of the season, while Hugo Ralphsmith suffered a hamstring that may see him miss early rounds in the pre-season. Noah Balta is suspended for an off-field discretion till Round 5.

Bet on Richmond Tigers to finish the season with the least wins at $1.65 with Bet365

In 2022 and 2023, the Eagles made a strong case for being the worst team of the decade, winning three games in that time and ending both seasons with ridiculously low percentages. Last season started out the same way, but through the middle parts of the year they demonstrated substantial growth to pick up a few wins before falling in a heap again later in the year.

Adam Simpson’s torturous few years was finally ended as he stepped away, and Andrew McQualter steps into the role in his absence in 2025. He has a tough task ahead of him – though they have gone from 2 to 3 to 5 wins in the past few years, there have still been plenty of aging players on the list, some of whom have now retired, while a couple of key pieces have been traded. Their path forward is getting ever-so-slowly clearer, but it’s still a long one, and they will likely find themselves struggling again this season.

• What brings them here? After winning the 2019 flag, the Eagles tumbled rapidly down the ladder in the ensuing years and haven’t been able to get off the bottom of it for some time.
  
• What has changed? Andrew Gaff retired, while Jack Darling and Luke Barrass were both traded. Liam Baker and Jack Graham come across from the Tigers, while Matt Owies was traded in from Carlton.
  
• Injury report. Dom Sheed will unfortunately miss the whole season after suffering an ACL injury in the pre-season, while Elliot Yeo will miss the start of the year.

Bet on Eagles to finish the season with the least wins at $4.75 with PlayUp

The Kangaroos have now gone five successive seasons without winning more than 4 games after managing just 3 last year, but though 2024 was a step backwards in terms of pure results, they showed plenty of growth in the back half of the year. After losing their first 11 games, they finally broke the duck against the Eagles; they then lost three consecutive games very competitively against good teams, before beating the Suns to round out their best five-week span in years.

Unfortunately it fell apart thereafter, but the signs are there. They have a really young list with no shortage of talent on it, from Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw in the middle to Nick Larkey and Charlie Comben at either end, and have bolstered their stocks with a bit of experience via trade. This team is not used to winning and may once again struggle, but equally it would be no surprise to see them finally crack that four-win mark.

• What brings them here? The Kangaroos finished second last in 2020, and since then have finished in the bottom two every single year.
  
• What has changed? Hugh Greenwood, Liam Shiels and Jaidyn Stephenson retired, while experienced trio Caleb Daniel, Luke Parker and Jack Darling were all traded in.
  
• Injury report. Callum Coleman-Jones will remain out till mid-season with an Achilles injury, while Wardlaw and Josh Goater will miss the early rounds with hamstrings.

Bet on Kangaroos to finish the season with the least wins at $5.50 with BetRight

The Saints have been the very definition of average over the past few years. The least successful club in the league’s history, they have won either 9, 10 or 11 games in five of the past six seasons, the sole exception being in 2023 when they won 13. That saw them finish 6th before bundled out in the first week of finals, and last year they dropped back down to 12th.

So what’s in store for 2025? Possibly more of the same, but the Saints could easily drop back further. They’re not exactly bursting with talented youth and have lost a few best 22 players without bringing in much that will help in the short-term. St. Kilda may well have realised that they need to go back to go forward, and while they should win more games than teams like Richmond, they are certainly one long odds Wooden Spoon candidate that could easily struggle immensely this season.

• What brings them here? After being stuck in AFL purgatory for years, the Saints might be ready to take a step backwards this year.
  
• What has changed? Josh Battle went to the Hawks as a free agent, while Brad Crouch retired. Jack Macrae was traded across from the Bulldogs.
  
• Injury report. Mattaes Phillipou and Dougal Howard will miss the first half of the season.

Bet on Saints to finish the season with the least wins at $21.00 with BetRight

Speaking of teams with success-starved supporter bases, let’s talk Essendon. The Bombers 20-year-long streak without a finals win continued last year after they again failed to even make it, beating their tally of the previous season by exactly half a win as they managed 11.5 for the season. They have a bit more to be optimistic about than the Saints in terms of young talent, but they are still not exactly flush with it.

More than likely the Bombers will once again hover around the back half of the top eight or just outside it, and realistically it’s hard to see them right down the bottom. But in a really competitive league, their list is certainly not among the best, and a couple of key injuries could easily see their season rapidly derailed.

• What brings them here? The Bombers have not won more than 12 games since 2013, but haven’t really been in Wooden Spoon contention for much of that time either.
  
• What has changed? Former captain Dyson Heppell has retired as has Jake Kelly, while Jake Stringer was traded to GWS.
  
• Injury report. Matt Guelfi will be out till early-mid season, while Alwyn Davey will probably miss a game or two. A plethora of others had pre-season injuries but none that should see them miss any home-and-away season games.

Bet on the Bombers to finish the season with the least wins at $26.00 with PlayUp

It’s now been 14 seasons in the league without a finals’ appearance – or even more than 11 wins – for the AFL’s second newest team. Last year they again put themselves in the mix but fell just a couple of games short in Damien Hardwick’s first season as coach, and though they did ultimately finish down in 13th, they were a lot closer to a finals side than a Wooden Spooner.

It's hard to know how this year will play out for them, but they seem more likely to go up than down, if anything. Hardwick is tried and tested while a couple of notable acquisitions – none more so than their coach’s former triple Premiership player Daniel Rioli – should help. They’ll be desperately hoping to finally break their finals hoodoo this year, and though that’s no guarantee, it’s hard to see them finishing bottom.

• What brings them here? The Suns have never finished higher than 12th, so there’s that – but they have developed into a middle-of-the-road team in recent years, a vast improvement on what they were for their first decade.
  
• What has changed? Rory Atkins and Jack Lukosius have been traded, while Levi Casboult and Brandon Ellis retired. Rioli was traded in alongside John Noble and Elliott Himmelberg was picked up as a free agent.
  
• Injury report. New recruit Leo Lombardo dislocated a shoulder in a practice match, while Jed Walter misses Round 1 through suspension.

Bet on the Suns to finish the season with the least wins at $41.00 with PlayUp

Last season was a massive fall from grace for the Demons, who dropped to 14th after finishing top four the previous three seasons. In fairness, they did still win 11 games, and with the closeness of the ladder were only a couple of games from the top eight. But they were a shadow of their former selves, and didn’t do much to improve their situation in the off-season.

The number of good teams in the league means that the Demons all of a sudden look past it, but it is worth remembering that they were a contender with much the same team just a couple of years ago. Maybe their window has closed, but even if it has it’s hard to see them dropping all the way to the bottom in 2025.

• What brings them here? Some off-season tumult and an aging list resulted in a disappointing 2024 for the Dees.
  
• What has changed? Ben Brown and Lachie Hunter retired, while Alex Neal-Bullen was traded. Harry Sharp comes in from Brisbane and Tom Campbell as a free agent.
  
• Injury report. Shane McAdam will likely miss the entire season with an Achilles injury, Koltyn Tholstrup a few early games, and Kysaiah Pickett Round 1 through suspension.

Bet on the Demons to finish the season with the least wins at $81.00 with PlayUp

The Crows did not quite take the step forward that they’d hoped last year. After going consecutively from 3 wins, to 7, 8 and then 11, they appeared finals bound in 2024 but only ended up with 8 wins. That put the heat on coach Matthew Nicks entering this year, but the Crows may well prove to be a prime example of the fact that improvement is not always linear.

They still have plenty of talent, and it would be no surprise to see them take a big step forward this year after the disappointment of the last. A few early losses could theoretically see them unravel given the expectations they’ve faced since 2023, but it’s much more likely they’ll play finals than finish near the bottom of the ladder.

• What brings them here? The Crows’ disappointing 2024 raised some question marks about their ability, though they do still have a solid list.
  
• What has changed? Club champ Rory Sloane retired while Elliott Himmelberg left as a free agent. Isaac Cumming joined the club as a free agent himself, and both Alex Neal-Bullen and James Peatling were traded in.
  
• Injury report. The Crows have virtually a clean bill of health heading into the season.

Bet on the Crows to finish the season with the least wins at $126.00 with PlayUp

This is a tricky market heading into the season. There are three standout favourites for good reason and the Tigers are clearly the pick of the bunch, but at odds-on with all betting sites in Australia without a game having been played they look too short. Among the longer odds team, the Saints are one that could be a bit of a surprise struggler, but even that seems very unlikely. With the Roos looking much better-placed to improve than the Eagles but boasting similar odds, it’s the latter which looks like the best bet here. The Tigers deserve to be favourite, but from a value perspective, the Eagles are my pre-season tip for the Wooden Spoon.

Wooden Spoon teams that failed to win a match

• Thirteen wooden spoon teams failed to win a match during a VFL/AFL season, the most recent being Fitzroy in 1964.

Most Wooden Spoons Won

• 27 – St Kilda Saints, most recently in 2014.

Least Wooden Spoons Won

• Only the Port Adelaide Power have never won the Wooden Spoon. Ironically, the 21st century’s least successful club, the Carlton Blues, has won all 5 of their Wooden Spoons since 2002.

Most ‘successful’ Wooden Spoon team

• The 1976 Collingwood Magpies hold the record for the most wins by a wooden spoon team in a season with six wins.

AFL/AFLW Wooden Spoon ‘Double’

• Carlton are the only team to have both men’s and women’s teams win the wooden spoon in the same season, occurring in 2018.