AFL 2025 Season Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The AFL season is now underway, and with a couple of teams having made sizzling starts there has been some movement at the top of the Premiership betting market. It remains, however, an extremely tough season to beat, with some AFL betting sites not having a single team paying less than $6 to win it all. The Hawks have skyrocketed into slight favouritism, but there are plenty of teams capable of challenging, and below we take a look at the eight favourites.

Updated: 28 February 2025

It’s incredible to think that the Hawks are the Premiership favourites given where they were less than 12 months ago. Five games into the 2024 season they were sitting at 0-5 having finished third-last a year prior, with many pundits (mostly the dramatic ones) spouting that it would take them at least five years to be competitive, if not a decade. Well Sam Mitchell and this young team have sure showed them.

A blistering turnaround in form last year appears to have carried through to 2025 and then some. I’ll be the first to put my hand up and admit I thought they were a little too short coming into this season given they are still very young and haven’t been up the top for long, but they started the year knocking off a Grand Finalist in Sydney, and backed it up with wins over the Bombers and Blues. It is, of course, a very long season and I wouldn’t be jumping on them at shorter odds than every other team just yet, but they could hardly have started better.

• What brings them here? The Hawks showed an incredible turnaround after a slow start to life under Sam Mitchell, and appear to be going on with it in 2025.
• What has changed? The Hawks brought in Josh Battle from St. Kilda and Tom Barrass from West Coast, massively strengthening their backline.
• Injury report. Mitch Lewis remains without a specific timeline on his recovery from an ACL, as do Sam Butler and Calsher Dear on their injuries. James Worpel, James Blanck and Connor Macdonald are due back in early-mid April, and Jack Scrimshaw in Round 6 from suspension.

Bet on the Hawks to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $5.50 with PlayUp

The Lions’ Premiership defence was postponed by Cyclone Alfred, but they started pretty strongly once they got out there. The reigning Premiers kicked the season off by once again beating the Swans, though it was a far less comfortable victory than they managed on Grand Final day last year. Still, a four-point win in Sydney was a strong start, and they backed it up with a win against the Eagles.

There is good reason to think that the Lions will be better this year than they were last. They have added another Ashcroft to the mix, and throughout the course of the year will see the return of most of the plethora of players who spent last year on the sideline with ACL injuries, Keidean Coleman chief among them. They have plenty of competition, but it would be a surprise to see the Lions outside the top four come the end of the home and away season.

• What brings them here? The Lions have made at least the semi-finals every season since 2018, and have done well to re-generate their list while remaining towards the top of the AFL ladder.
• What has changed? Not all that much. Daniher has retired, while the second Ashcroft comes in.
• Injury report. Coleman and Tom Doedee are nearing returns, while Brandon Starcevich’s future is TBC after a series of head knocks. Lincoln McCarthy has unfortunately re-ruptured his ACL.

Bet on the Lions to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $6.50 with BetRight

Could this be the year of the Giants? More than a decade into life with 18 teams, the AFL is yet to see one of their newest members win a flag, but while the Suns have been wallowing around in the bottom ten, the Giants have been in the mix plenty of times before, and are perhaps as well-placed as ever in 2025. With a great mix of veteran talent and youth, they clearly have the cattle to challenge, and after the past couple of years have some good finals experience to go with it.

Their start to the year could hardly have been more impressive, as they absolutely dismantled the Magpies to the tune of 52 points in one of just two games in a cyclone-affected Opening Round. Backing that up with a much tighter game against the Demons, they went two from two to start, banking potentially pivotal early season wins in the process. Flags are not won in March, but they’ve started well and with so much talent running around, could be really tough to beat come September.

• What brings them here? The Giants have been brilliant since halfway through Adam Kingsley’s first season in charge in 2023, and should be right in the mix again this year.
  
• What has changed? Isaac Cumming, Nick Haynes, James Peatling and Harry Perryman have all gone elsewhere, while Jake Stringer has joined from Essendon in a potentially major pick up.
  
• Injury report. Jake Stringer and Jesse Hogan had delayed starts to the season but won’t be missing beyond Rounds 3 or 4, while Josh Fahey is suspended until Round 5.

Bet on the Giants to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $6.50 with BetRight

The Magpies start to the season was erratic to say the least. In their first three weeks, the 2023 Premiers managed a 52-point loss to the Giants, a 91-point win over the Power, and a six-point defeat of the Bulldogs in an entertaining game. That doesn’t give us a whole lot of information, but the Port win was impressive and the game against the Bulldogs was of a very high quality.

The Craig McRae effect might have worn off to some extent after they flew from 17th to the top four and then to a flag within two years, but this is still a team that can do plenty of damage on its day. The Pies are certainly not without their issues, but that could be said for any team and at their best they are clearly a team with Premiership potential. Expect them to be among the glut of teams vying for a spot in the top four in 2025.

• What brings them here? The Magpies jumped from 17th to 4th in Craig McRae’s first year and went all the way in his second, and they’ll be hoping last season was just a blip on the radar.
  
• What has changed? Nathan Murphy retired while John Noble and Joe Richards were traded, but the Magpies’ big move in the off-season was bringing in Dan Houston, who is joined by Tim Membrey and Harry Perryman on the acquisitions list.
  
• Injury report. The Magpies have each of Tom Mitchell, Harvey Harrison and Ash Johnson listed as TBC, Reef McInnes is out for the year after doing his ACL, while Oleg Markov, Fin Macrae and most importantly Brody Mihocek are nearing returns.

Bet on the Giants to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $9.00 with PlayUp

The Cats have had a similar last few years to the Pies in the sense that they won the flag and then missed the finals the next year, achieving that feat a year in advance of their black and white counterparts. But last year, they did what the Pies will look to do in 2025 by bouncing right back into the top four. Unfortunately the Preliminary Finals was as far as they got, something which has been a common ending for the Cats under Chris Scott.

But any team that makes the final four could theoretically win it, and they again enter this season with that aspiration, as they typically do. Their start to the season could not have been better with a 78-point domination of the Dockers, but they failed to back it up and lost to the Saints the next week. Many of their best players are on their last legs, but we’ve said that plenty of times before and the likes of Jeremy Cameron and Tom Stewart are still elite players. With some good young talent coming through, the Cats are a team with top four potential once again.

• What brings them here? The Cats are virtually always in this conversation, having finished in the top four an incredible 14 times in the past 18 seasons.
  
• What has changed? Club great Tom Hawkins has retired as has Zach Tuohy, while Gary Rohan and Brandon Parfitt were delisted. Bailey Smith comes across from the Dogs, while Jack Martin was picked up as a delisted free agent.
  
• Injury report. Jed Bews will be out till close to mid-season, while Cam Guthrie remains an unknown with his pesky Achilles and so does Tanner Bruhn with a finger. Tom Stewart, Bailey Smith and Jack Martin have had injury concerns but won’t be out long.

Bet on the Cats to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $10.00 with PlayUp

The Crows have been the big mover in this market, with a scintillating first couple of weeks seeing their odds rapidly dropping. But is that move premature? It is a long season, but there have been plenty of teams in the past whose path to the top has not been a linear one, and after playing some excellent footy in 2023 there is no reason to think that this list won’t prove their 2024 performance to be an anomaly.

Adelaide did not face any contenders in the first fortnight, but neither the Swans nor the Bombers are completely hopeless and the Crows put up more than 20 goals on both of them. They have some serious x-factor in guys like Isak Rankine and Josh Rachele and plenty of other really good players littered across the park, and when they are on song they are as dangerous as anyone. Maybe it’s too early to jump on the train given the teams they beat and they might not be where they need to be just yet, but though I’d be a little wary of any odds which have shortened so quickly, I’m on the bandwagon.

• What brings them here? The Crows slowly improved under Matthew Nicks only to go backwards last year, but this team has plenty of potential.
  
• What has changed? The Crows traded Elliot Himmelberg while Rory Sloane retired – though he did that early last season. Isaac Cumming, James Peatling and Alex Neal-Bullen all came in through trade or free agency.
  
• Injury report. Aiding the Crows’ cause is a very healthy list, with no best 22 players injured at the time of writing.

Incredible as it is to have the Hawks as Premiership favourites and the Crows so high up in the betting, arguably even more remarkable is that the Swans are way back in 7th at $15 with some betting sites. A couple of months out from last year’s finals series, it was a matter of which team was going to challenge the Swans for the flag. They were that far ahead of the chasing pack, and though they stumbled a little nearing the finals they did still make it through to the Big Dance.

But we all remember what happened there, and back-to-back losses to start the year have not helped the confidence of the masses in their ability to rebound. But all is not lost just yet. Those losses came to the two current Premiership favourites and they subsequently came away from Perth with a win over the Dockers. The Swans have become the ugly duckling, so to speak, in the Premiership conversation, forgotten and cast to the side as yesterday’s news. But this is still the same team that was so dominant for much of last year. They’ve got work to do to recapture that kind of form, but write off Sydney at your own peril. They are more than capable of turning things around, and if and when they do the $15 currently on offer will be shortening rapidly.

• What brings them here? The Swans made the Grand Final probably prematurely in 2022, but they fully deserved their spot there last year even if they failed spectacularly on the day.
  
• What has changed? Not much. Club legend Luke Parker was traded to North to finish his career, while Sam Reid retired.
  
• Injury report. The Swans have plenty of injuries to best 22 players, but they should have plenty coming back soon, including Taylor Adams, Harry Cunningham, Robbie Fox, Logan McDonald, Lewis Melican, and best of all Callum Mills..

Bet on the Swans to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $15.00 with PlayUp

The Dockers are hanging on to a spot in the top eight in the odds with betting sites in Australia by the skin of their teeth. Their start to the season was an unmitigated disaster as they went down by 13 goals to the Cats, and though they were far better in their second game they still somehow found a way to lose a tight one to the Swans. In such a competitive league that has put their backs against the wall from the outset, and their odds have drifted a little as a result.

But like with so many teams, the Dockers’ ceiling is high and it would be no great surprise to see them pull themselves together and compete for a spot in the top four. Their ball movement at times remains their biggest concern, but they have plenty of good players forward, back and in the middle, can be very difficult to score against, and will likely not lose many more games in Perth. Something about this team appeals to me, and while I won’t be jumping on board after their slow start, I’ll keep a foot on the bandwagon.

• What brings them here? The Dockers have gradually built under coach Justin Longmuir, and while their finishes have not been linear they have built a really good foundation from which to challenge.
  
• What has changed? Shai Bolton is a big pick-up from the Tigers, while they also acquired Quinton Narkle.
  
• Injury report. The Dockers had a couple of significant absentees early in the season in Sean Darcy and Hayden Young, but they both return in early April, and likewise Sam Switkowski and Michael Walters.

Bet on the Dockers to win the 2025 AFL Premiership @ $17.00 with BetRight

The quality of teams not even mentioned above is testament to just how equal the AFL is right now. The Blues’ slow start to the season has seen them bumped down the list, while the Bulldogs, given how good they were for much of last year, could easily end up a lot shorter than the $20+ you can currently get with some betting apps for them right now. While many in the media will spend the season telling you why Team X or Team Y can’t win it, realistically there are up to 10 teams that, all going well, it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see holding the trophy aloft. At this point in time, however, the team that stands out to me from a value perspective is the Swans. Their start to the season may have been slow and their performance on Grand Final day last year is clearly not being forgotten by anyone in a hurry, but they were there for a reason. With the trio of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden running around and plenty of other talent, this team’s best is very good, and their current odds might be the longest you’ll get for them all year.