AFL 2025 Season Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The AFL does equalisation as well as just about any league in the world, and it shows in the Premiership betting odds entering the 2025 season. The Lions go in as favourites to go back to back, but ‘favourites’ in this case still means as long as $7.50 odds with some betting sites, while no less than nine teams are paying $13 or less with PlayUp to end the season victorious. That means we should be in for an enthralling season, and on its eve, let’s take a look at how some of the favourites are shaping up.

Updated: 20 February 2025

The Lions’ 2024 Premiership victory was much deserved, with Chris Fagan and his chargers finally getting reward for season after season of being very good, but not quite good enough. They had a tumultuous start to the season through injury and poor form but came home with a wet sail, and after just scraping through a couple of close finals, tore the Swans to shreds on the biggest stage.

They could theoretically be even better this season; the plethora of players with ACL ruptures will filter in throughout the season while Levi Ashcroft could make an immediate impact, though the loss of Joe Daniher will no doubt leave a void which will be tough to fill. They are going to have no shortage of competition this season, but the Lions enter 2025 as well placed as any side to win it all.

• What brings them here? The Lions have made at least the semi-finals every season since 2018, and have done well to re-generate their list while remaining towards the top of the AFL ladder.
• What has changed? Not all that much. Daniher has retired, while the second Ashcroft comes in.
• Injury update. Tom Doedee, Darcy Gardiner, Lincoln McCarthy and Keidean Coleman should all return from ACL injuries in the first half of the season.

Bet on the Brisbane Lions to win the AFL Premiership @ $7.50 with BetRight

The Hawks had an unbelievable 2024 season, transforming themselves from a likely bottom four side into a Premiership contender all within the space of a month. They were only beaten a couple of times after the first two months of the year, and went heartbreakingly close to a Preliminary Finals appearance with one of the youngest teams in the league.

Invariably, that would suggest that they are a danger team this year. This young Hawks side is only just getting started and their fanbase will be anticipating years at the top, and based on how they played for most of last season it’s easy to see why they are one of the Premiership favourites. But caution should be advised; impressive as they were, they are still young and wouldn’t be the first such team to falter a little in this situation. The Hawks’ ceiling is very high, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise to see them struggle to live up to expectations either.

• What brings them here? The Hawks’ timeline under Sam Mitchell wasn’t expected to have them in the Premiership mix just yet, but they were brilliant last season.
• What has changed? The Hawks brought in Josh Battle from St. Kilda and Tom Barrass from West Coast, massively strengthening their backline.
• Injury report. Mitch Lewis will miss a decent chunk of the season as he recovers from an ACL, while James Blanck should be back a lot earlier from his.

Bet on the Hawthorn Hawks to win the AFL Premiership @ $8.50 with BetRight

After winning the flag in 2022 and then missing the finals the next year, the Cats returned to the top four last season and subsequently stormed into the Prelims with a resounding defeat of Port Adelaide in their first final. They gave the eventual Premiers a serious run for their money with a spot in the Grand Final on the line, but a ten-point defeat to the Lions ultimately ended their season.

But this perennial contender will be expecting to be right back in the mix this year. The retirement of a few key players will require some adjustment, but they’ve made a couple of good acquisitions – namely in the form of Bailey Smith – to offset those losses. As much as any club in the league, the Cats seem capable of competing regardless of who is on the field, and though they might not look as talented on paper as they have in the past, they should still be a tough team to beat this year.

• What brings them here? The Cats are virtually always in this conversation, having finished in the top four an incredible 14 times in the past 18 seasons.
  
• What has changed? Club great Tom Hawkins has retired as has Zach Tuohy, while Gary Rohan and Brandon Parfitt were delisted. Bailey Smith comes across from the Dogs, while Jack Martin was picked up as a delisted free agent.
  
• Injury report. The Cats have virtually a clean bill of health entering the season.

Bet on the Geelong Cats to win the AFL Premiership @ $10.00 with BetRight

After Geelong followed up a Premiership by missing the finals in 2023, it was the Magpies’ turn to do the same last year, finishing 9th a year after they beat the Lions in one of the most memorable Grand Finals in recent times. That was a sign of just how tight the league is, and while the Magpies weren’t a shadow of the team they were the year prior, it won’t take much improvement for them to bounce straight back up the ladder.

The Craig McRae effect might have worn off to some extent, but this is still a team with plenty of good players, a lot of experience and a game plan that looks unstoppable when they were on song. Dan Houston will provide some welcome run and skill while the likes of the Daicos brothers and Jordan de Goey make up a really potent forward/midfield group, so it would be no surprise to see the 2023 Premiers put themselves back in the mix this year.

• What brings them here? The Magpies jumped from 17th to 4th in Craig McRae’s first year and went all the way in his second, and they’ll be hoping last season was just a blip on the radar.
  
• What has changed? Nathan Murphy retired while John Noble and Joe Richards were traded, but the Magpies’ big move in the off-season was bringing in Houston, who is joined by Tim Membrey and Harry Perryman on the acquisitions list.
  
• Injury report. Harvey Harrison is out til mid-season with an ACL while Tom Mitchell is TBC with a foot injury. Jordan de Goey is doubtful for Round 1 after hurting his knee in the pre-season.

Bet on the Collingwood Magpies to win the AFL Premiership @ $10.00 with BetRight

The Blues are, for all intents and purposes, well and truly in their Premiership window, but the fact remains that they haven’t won more than 13 games in a season since 2011 (and not more than 14 since 2000). Expectations were high after they made the Preliminary Final from 5th in 2023, and though they looked like the best team in the league behind Sydney for a period last season, they capitulated as finals neared.

But any side boasting the top-end talent of this one has to be considered dangerous. The criticism has long been and remains that they lack depth outside that elite top seven or eight players, but Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Jacob Weitering, Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh, to name just a few, is an extremely good crop at the top. It hasn’t all come together for a full season for the Blues just yet, but if it does they could easily find themselves right at the pointy end of the ladder.

• What brings them here? The Blues were building for what felt like decades, but with their stars now in their prime this is their time.
  
• What has changed? Matt Kennedy and Matt Owies were traded while Jack Martin was perhaps surprisingly delisted, while Nick Haynes joins from the Giants alongside number three pick Jagger Smith.
  
• Injury report. Nic Newman will miss the entire season with a knee injury in a savage blow, while Alex Cincotta is out til mid-season and Charlie Curnow might miss a game or two.

Bet on the Carlton Blues to win the AFL Premiership @ $10.00 with BetRight

Speaking of talent, the Giants have it in spades but unfortunately fell victim to single-kick losses to both the eventual Grand Finalists after finishing 4th last season, making it three consecutive finals losses by less than a kick. Invariably that will raise question marks about their ability to get it done in the big moments – and perhaps fair enough given the lead they squandered in last year’s semi – but sometimes, you’re just behind when the final siren goes.

That they lost those three games certainly doesn’t mean that this team isn’t capable of going all the way, and that they have been so close over the past two years is more indicative of the fact that they are clearly good enough. With another year under the belt of their talented youngsters and their oldies still playing quality footy, the Giants should be one of the best teams in the league in 2025.

• What brings them here? The Giants have been brilliant since halfway through Adam Kingsley’s first season in charge in 2023, and should be right in the mix again this year.
  
• What has changed? Isaac Cumming, Nick Haynes, James Peatling and Harry Perryman have all gone elsewhere, while Jake Stringer has joined from Essendon in a potentially major pick up.
  
• Injury report. The Giants have a bunch of players controversially suspended for their Mad Monday costumes, with Harvey Thomas, Jake Riccardi, Toby McMullin and Joe Fonti out till Round 3, and Josh Fahey until Round 5.

Bet on the Greater Western Sydney Giants to win the AFL Premiership @ $10.00 with BetRight

There were periods during the 2024 season when the Dockers looked like one of the best teams in the AFL, yet somehow they managed to miss the finals. But a record of 12-1-10 and in particular their percentage of 111.91% points to a team that is a lot better than their 10th place finish would suggest, and with the acquisition of one of the biggest X-factors in the game in Shai Bolton and a little more composure in tight finishes this year, they could easily climb rapidly up the ladder.

The difference between missing the finals and the top four is so marginal in such a tight league, and the Dockers were a victim of that last year. But they should be expecting to challenge this year. They have a really well-rounded team, a strong defensive identity and if they can find a way to avoid the ball-moving slumps they suffered from last year, they could very easily put themselves right in the Premiership mix.

• What brings them here? The Dockers have gradually built under coach Justin Longmuir, and while their finishes have not been linear they have built a really good foundation from which to challenge.
  
• What has changed? As mentioned, Bolton is a big pick-up, while they also acquired Quinton Narkle.
  
• Injury report. Sam Switkowski is TBC with concussion issues, while Sean Darcy will likely miss the early rounds with an ankle injury.

Bet on the Fremantle Dockers to win the AFL Premiership @ $10.00 with PlayUp

There have been a few of them, but this is yet another testament to just how close the league is. The Swans were the best team in the league for the vast majority of last season by an absolute street, and ultimately made the Grand Final, but here they are sitting in 8th with many AFL betting sites for the Premiership. Granted they trailed off late in the year, but when they were on they were better than anyone.

Given they failed to deliver on the big stage yet again, it’s understandable why there would be a little scepticism about their ability to go all the way. I struggle to share that scepticism. In Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner they have probably the best 1-2-3 punch in the league, and while they lack a dominant key forward they managed fine most of last season without one. As the best team in the league for most of last year, they look like good value here.

• What brings them here? The Swans made the Grand Final probably prematurely in 2022, but they fully deserved their spot there last year even if they failed spectacularly on the day.
  
• What has changed? Not much. Club legend Luke Parker was traded to North to finish his career, while Sam Reid retired.
  
• Injury report. Logan McDonald may miss the beginning of the season with an ankle injury.

Bet on the Sydney Swans to win the AFL Premiership @ $13.00 with PlayUp

There are chances aplenty in this season’s Premiership race, and even beyond the above eight teams there are a couple of sides that could easily put themselves into the mix. Each of the above is certainly capable of winning; the Lions will be tough to beat, the Dockers with a couple of tweaks could be right up there, and the Giants’ best will be very, very good. The standout in terms of value, however, looks like the Swans. Yes they capitulated once again on Grand Final Day, but by no means does that mean they are incapable of going all the way, and given they were so far ahead of any other team for a large portion of last year, they look like overs at double figure odds with virtually all betting sites in Australia.