Last year, Patrick Cripps made history by recording an extraordinary 45 votes en route to his second Brownlow Medal win. Realistically his season wasn’t that far superior to every other in history like that vote tally would suggest, but he did have a terrific and very consistent year, and he has consistently polled well throughout his career.
He entered this season as a close second-favourite to Nick Daicos, but has tumbled down the list candidates in the early stages of the season. As a result – as well as due to his own elite play – Daicos has shortened considerably, while a number of other names have also come into consideration, not least Matt Rowell. Below, we will take a look at how all of the favourites are faring in the Brownlow Medal race a few games into the season.
AFL 2025 Brownlow Medal Betting
AFL 2025 Brownlow Medal Odds
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Nick Daicos (Collingwood Magpies)
It’s no secret that Nick Daicos is really good, and despite being in only his fourth season in the league, he could very easily have already won two Brownlow Medals. Alas, he is still yet to win his first, but it’s hard to imagine his trophy cabinet remaining devoid of a Charlie for all that much longer. The Magpies’ superstar actually started this season a little more slowly than we are accustomed to, picking up only 21 and then 26 touches in his first two games, but since then he has returned to some of his best form and then some. 39 touches in a dominant Round 3 display was followed up by 27, 34 and then 38 over the next three games, and with votes likely in at least three of those he shorted with Australian betting sites quite a lot in that time, particularly with his main contender entering the season in Patrick Cripps not quite playing at his best. Also aiding Daicos’ cause is the fact that his team looks like they are returning to the kind of form which saw them win the 2023 Premiership, and if they win a lot of games, he will get a lot of votes. This early in the season, however, his short-priced odds make him really hard to bet on, but the younger Daicos brother is looking like he will once again be right in the mix on Brownlow Medal night, and he fully deserves to be outright favourite.
Bet on Nick Daicos to win the Brownlow Medal @ $3.50 with PlayUp
Matt Rowell (Gold Coast Suns)
Matt Rowell was not on many people’s Brownlow Medal bingo cards coming into the season, but after a really strong first month for both him and his Gold Coast Suns, that has changed. The number one pick in the 2019 draft, Rowell was a driving force behind his team’s undefeated first month, with votes possible in three of their first four games. He picked up 30 touches in their first game, 36 in their second and 26 in their fourth, with a typically high proportion of those contested. With the Suns winning all of those games, and numerous of them easily, the team will likely be collecting most of the votes and Rowell could easily be right up there in the voting in the early stages – just as he was in his first season in the league when he picked up three votes in three of his first four games. If the Suns continue to win at the rate they have he could easily get plenty of votes, but punters beware. They had a really soft draw to start the season, and a loss to the Tigers in their fifth game was a reminder that they are far from guaranteed to be taking a big step forward in the win column this season. With a really tough next month to come, things will get a lot trickier for the Suns, and Brownlow votes will likely be hard to come by. Rowell might just be the toughest midfielder in the game and is good enough to get plenty of Brownlow votes, but his odds look likely to get longer over the coming months with the Suns likely to start picking up a few losses.
Bet on Matt Rowell to win the Brownlow Medal @ $8.00 with PlayUp
Zach Merrett (Essendon Bombers)
After many, many years of being a good but not great player, Zach Merrett took major strides forward last year and appears to have continued on his merry way in 2025. Though his Bombers had their early season woes, their captain did not, picking up 26 touches and 2 goals in his first game and 36 and 4 in his second. Unfortunately they lost both of those games, the second dramatically, though surely he is still worthy of a vote for 36 and 4 regardless of result. And the Bombers started to win thereafter, with Merrett again playing a major role with 34, 37 and then 26 touches in the three wins that ensued. The industrious midfielder does not play a bad game and is one of the most prolific ball-winners in the game, so if the Bombers manage to win a reasonable number of games this season he could easily put himself in the mix. Of course, that is a big if. They have looked solid over the last few games but are still likely to struggle to make the finals, and it’s also worth noting that Merrett has never picked up more than 20 votes in his 11 previous seasons in the league. He has well and truly established himself as one of the game’s elite though, and while his team might not win as many games as those of some other names in this list, and his polling history won’t fill anyone with confidence, this could easily be his best season yet from a Brownlow perspective.
Bet on Zach Merrett to win the Brownlow Medal @ $15.00 with PlayUp
Jordan Dawson (Adelaide Crows)
Jordan Dawson has picked up where he left off last season, beginning 2025 in style with a series of good games. He may not be dramatically better than he has been over the last couple of years, but that was still good enough to have him firmly among the game’s elite, and there appears to be one major difference this year – the Crows might be pretty good. In his three years in Adelaide so far they have won just 8, 11 and 8 games, but four wins from their first six games and those two losses both by single-figure margins have suggested that they are ready to take a step into the top eight this season. Invariably, that means more votes for the team overall, and as their leading vote-getter in each of their past two seasons, that will likely mean more votes than ever before for the Crows’ skipper. Dawson picked up at least 27 touches in four of those first six games, but it’s his ability to be damaging with ball in hand, particularly forward of centre, that really helps him to stand out. When the Crows are scoring heavily, as they do better than just about anyone in the league, he is generally a major reason why, and if they continue to win at the rate they have early in the season he could easily be set for a 25+ vote season.
Bet on Jordan Dawson to win the Brownlow Medal @ $15.00 with PlayUp
Tom Green (Greater Western Sydney Giants)
There are a couple of players in a talented Giants’ team who could arguably claim to be more valuable than Tom Green, but none of them play in the midfield, and as history has shown time and time and time again, that’s where the Brownlow Medal winner will come from. Now in his sixth year in the league, Green has already established himself as one of the best players in the game, with his big frame and contested ball-winning ability as good as just about anyone. That’s seen him jump from single-figure votes to 16 in 2023 and 27 last year, and any more improvement in that regard will see him right in the mix to win this award. Green has started the season as well as anybody – he picked up 35 touches in his first game of the year and has not looked back, following that up with 31, 37, 28 and 36, and with those possessions far from empty ones and many of those big games accompanied by wins, he should be polling heavily early in the season. Importantly, the Giants are expected to continue on their merry way and push for top four this season – though there are plenty of other teams in that category, too – and if they can again go close to winning 15 games or so it’s very easy to see Green polling more than he ever has before. If he does, a Brownlow Medal could very much become a reality, and at $17 on some betting apps he looks like decent value early in the year.
Bet on Tom Green to win the Brownlow Medal @ $17.00 with PlayUp
Caleb Serong (Fremantle Dockers)
Being out west, Caleb Serong doesn’t always get the attention that he deserves, but he is one of the most prolific ball-winners in the AFL and if the past couple of years are anything to go by, will find himself right up the top of the leaderboard come Brownlow night. The Dockers’ midfielder has picked up 24 and then 28 votes in the past two years, and he will likely be looking at a similar number once again in 2025. In five of the Dockers’ first six games, he had at least 27 touches, including 35 and 38 in back-to-back games against the Eagles and Bulldogs – both of which they won. He is rarely outside of the top five or so players on the ground, which means that particularly in wins he will always be in the mix to poll. Players like that can at times suffer from often just missing out on the votes or struggling to put together the three-vote games necessary to win this award, but that hasn’t proven to be a problem for Serong over the past couple of years. There are more damaging players than him in the league, but he is nonetheless a brilliant and very consistent player and should be polling close to 30 votes this season.
Bet on Caleb Serong to win the Brownlow Medal @ $19.00 with PlayUp
Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats)
Wouldn’t this be a story? After a year out of the game with an ACL injury and then a trade that nobody didn’t see coming, social media’s favourite AFL players has returned with a bang. His on-field antics have garnered plenty of attention, particularly from the fines police down at AFL HQ, but don’t let that overshadow the fact that he has also played extremely well in his first few games in the blue and white hoops. Smith wasted no time returning to his best with 32 touches and a goal in his first game for Geelong, and followed that up with 25, 28, 35 and 28 in the next four. He has immediately become a star of this midfield, and while the Cats have plenty of other big names capable of stealing votes, Smith has quickly put his hand up to be the most prominent among them. It is worth noting that he has not polled well in the past; while he was a really important player for the Bulldogs, in the five years he played there (excluding 2024 when he didn’t see the park for a solitary minute) he never polled more than 10 Brownlow votes in a season. Of course, that was in a stacked midfield where he was competing with the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, and in the latter stages Adam Treloar, and while the Cats are a very good team they don’t have that star power in the guts, which could see Smith poll much more heavily than ever before. At the same odds as proven vote-getters like Serong and Green I wouldn’t exactly be putting my house on him, but there is no denying that Smith is an eye-catching player and has started the year very well on a team with top-four aspirations.
Bet on Bailey Smith to win the Brownlow Medal at $17.00 with PlayUp
Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn Hawks)
Jai Newcombe is the poster boy for one of the AFL’s inventions, having been taken by the Hawks with the second pick in the 2021 mid-season rookie draft. He wasted no time making an impact, playing seven games in the back half of the year, but it was in 2022 when he really began to show that he belonged at the level. That year, the gun mid picked up 11 Brownlow votes, increased that to 18 the following season and then 24 next year, and similar progression will see him right in the mix to win it all this year. Newcombe hasn’t been exactly dominant to start the year, but he has still played well enough to feature in the votes in numerous games, not least his 32-touch performance against the Blues, while he also accumulated 29 and 28 in Rounds 6 and 7 – though both of those were in losses. Newcombe is consistently among the Hawks’ best players, and with Will Day set to miss an extended period through injury, his capacity to poll votes will only increase. There are plenty of more talented players in the AFL than Newcombe, but few extract the most out of their talent like he does, and on a team that should win plenty of games he will very likely see his vote-tally go well into the 20s, if not beyond, on Brownlow Medal night.
Bet on Jai Newcombe to win the Brownlow Medal @ $19.00 with PlayUp
